Hey Speedy, Biden slips to 3rd in Monmouth Poll!

[Austin Ellen]

So let me get this straight.

The dems top 3 are -Biden,Warren and Sanders?

Hasta la vista babes - this show is over. They might as well stick a fork in it - their done. They better do soon before forks are banned.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

I've warned you and others not to put too much emphasis on any one poll. The Monmouth poll was done from Aug 16-20. Since then there have been polls by Change Research (Biden +3), 4 by HarrisX (Biden +14, +10, +15, +22), Morning Consult (Biden +13), Echelon Insights (Biden +11), and Emerson College (Biden +7).

The Emerson College poll also has Biden +8 over Trump. Sanders +4. Warren +1. HarrisX has Biden +7 over Trump.

It's way too early to take any of the polls too seriously.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

So let me get this straight.

The dems top 3 are -Biden,Warren and Sanders?

Hasta la vista babes - this show is over. They might as well stick a fork in it - their done. They better do soon before forks are banned.

You better hope there is not a high correlation between approval ratings and how voters will actually vote in 2020.

Trump's net approval rating sinks in every battleground state


President Trump's net approval rating has plunged in every key battleground state since taking office in January 2017, according to Morning Consult's tracking poll.

https://www.axios.com/trump-approval...1f97bf62c.html

One such pattern, which has held in every election that involved an incumbent president since the emergence of the political polling industry, is this: If the president’s approval rating is “above water,” meaning more approvers than disapprovers, he wins a second term. If the president has a negative approval rating, he loses.

This has been true in 10 out of 10 instances in the era of modern polling, dating back to the 1950s, the era that includes the last 16 presidential elections — including the 10 that involved an incumbent president. In every one of those 10, as I just mentioned, if the president had more approvers than disapprovers, he was re-elected. If more disapprovers than approvers, he was defeated.

https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-...ction-pattern/

Right now Trump is -10.4 according to RealClearPolitics and even worse by FiveThirtyEight.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I've warned you and others not to put too much emphasis on any one poll. The Monmouth poll was done from Aug 16-20. Since then there have been polls by Change Research (Biden +3), 4 by HarrisX (Biden +14, +10, +15, +22), Morning Consult (Biden +13), Echelon Insights (Biden +11), and Emerson College (Biden +7).

The Emerson College poll also has Biden +8 over Trump. Sanders +4. Warren +1. HarrisX has Biden +7 over Trump.

It's way too early to take any of the polls too seriously.

Then why do you keep referencing them? I agree, at this time they mean nothing. Especially the ones who predict Dems beating Trump. I don’t rely on this poll. I rely on my own eyes and ears. Biden will not be the nominee.

[Austin Ellen]

Well, if there is - I think those people will just stay home if faced with what the current dems are offering. They should ask that question - if you disapprove of Trump does that mean you will vote for the dem choice. Is there a poll out there that does ask that question? It would be interesting to see at the final outcome.
Speed - do you think that one of the three - Sanders,Biden or Warren will beat Trump?

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

You better hope there is not a high correlation between approval ratings and how voters will actually vote in 2020.

Trump's net approval rating sinks in every battleground state


President Trump's net approval rating has plunged in every key battleground state since taking office in January 2017, according to Morning Consult's tracking poll.

https://www.axios.com/trump-approval...1f97bf62c.html

One such pattern, which has held in every election that involved an incumbent president since the emergence of the political polling industry, is this: If the president’s approval rating is “above water,” meaning more approvers than disapprovers, he wins a second term. If the president has a negative approval rating, he loses.

This has been true in 10 out of 10 instances in the era of modern polling, dating back to the 1950s, the era that includes the last 16 presidential elections — including the 10 that involved an incumbent president. In every one of those 10, as I just mentioned, if the president had more approvers than disapprovers, he was re-elected. If more disapprovers than approvers, he was defeated.

https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-...ction-pattern/

Right now Trump is -10.4 according to RealClearPolitics and even worse by FiveThirtyEight.

[Yssup Rider]

That’s your hope, AE, but I don’t think that good old Trump Lightning’s gonna hit the same dumpster twice. What began in 2018 will continue 2020, courtesy of your favorite POTUS.

Trump will do more to ensure a Bluenami than anything

Biden might not win the nomination but he’d kick Trump’s ass.

Sanders would too, though it would be tougher.

Warren wipes up the floor with him.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

That’s your hope, AE, but I don’t think that good old Trump Lightning’s gonna hit the same dumpster twice. What began in 2018 will continue 2020, courtesy of your favorite POTUS.

Trump will do more to ensure a Bluenami than anything

Biden might not win the nomination but he’d kick Trump’s ass.

Sanders would too, though it would be tougher.

Warren wipes up the floor with him.

Trump will humiliate that fake Indian cunt so bad in a debate she'll have a conniption fit so epic she'll have a stroke and die on live TV pard.


BAHHAHAHAHAAAAAAA

[Yssup Rider]

Hail to the Chief!

[themystic]

https://youtu.be/ho61-oaU6wo

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

Then why do you keep referencing them? I agree, at this time they mean nothing. Especially the ones who predict Dems beating Trump. I don’t rely on this poll. I rely on my own eyes and ears. Biden will not be the nominee.

I reference them because they are meaningful at the point in time in which they are taken. Your man Trump follows them religiously, quoting the ones that are supportive of him and demeaning the ones that are not.

For example, the 2016 midterm election exit polls and all recent polls show Trump losing much of the suburban woman's vote which helped carry him to victory in 2016. So Trump's reaction:

Team Trump launches 'coast-to-coast' campaign for suburban women


https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...mpaign-1470357

You might also notice Trump putting a great deal of focus on those states where he is losing ground in the polls.

How did your eyes and ears work in 2018?

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Well, if there is - I think those people will just stay home if faced with what the current dems are offering. They should ask that question - if you disapprove of Trump does that mean you will vote for the dem choice. Is there a poll out there that does ask that question? It would be interesting to see at the final outcome.
Speed - do you think that one of the three - Sanders,Biden or Warren will beat Trump?

Again, I think you are underestimating the number of voters who will hit the voting booths to vote AGAINST Donald Trump. I firmly believe that is why the 2018 midterms set a record for voter turnout and Democrats set a record in their victory margin.

Yes, I believe any one of those 3 can beat Trump for the reason I just gave. Trump is doing very little to increase support among those who are not in his base. His approval ratings are dropping. Nothing on health care. Little progress on immigration. Tariffs which have destroyed the gains from the tax reform package. Rising deficit. Terrible foreign relations. Many economic indicators down.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I reference them because they are meaningful at the point in time in which they are taken. Your man Trump follows them religiously, quoting the ones that are supportive of him and demeaning the ones that are not.

On this I absolutely agree with you Speed. They are meaningless in forecasting the General election. But you have to pay attention to them in the trending.

This is where Hillary screwed up in 2016 when she went from large leads as the Dems forecast now, to leads well withing the margin of error.

She did not react appropriately and ignored "fly over country" to her demise.

Trump watched that then and as you say I'm sure he's watching now.

The pundits on either side can discount to their world's delight, but on any given day, it's this poll or that, that should be at least taken seriously and reacted to. There is a reason for it.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Yes, I believe any one of those 3 can beat Trump for the reason I just gave.

This early, anything can still happen. Trump had no shot at this point equivalently in 2015. He was being laughed out of the running.

Things change and for Trump it will be the mood of the electorate regarding his Presidency, and for the liberals, the mood of their constituency in anti-Trump venom.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by eccielover

This early, anything can still happen. Trump had no shot at this point equivalently in 2015. He was being laughed out of the running.

Things change and for Trump it will be the mood of the electorate regarding his Presidency, and for the liberals, the mood of their constituency in anti-Trump venom.

I can't disagree with you. Trump has time to turn things around. Right now I still put the race at 50-50.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by eccielover

On this I absolutely agree with you Speed. They are meaningless in forecasting the General election. But you have to pay attention to them in the trending.

This is where Hillary screwed up in 2016 when she went from large leads as the Dems forecast now, to leads well withing the margin of error.

She did not react appropriately and ignored "fly over country" to her demise.

Trump watched that then and as you say I'm sure he's watching now.

The pundits on either side can discount to their world's delight, but on any given day, it's this poll or that, that should be at least taken seriously and reacted to. There is a reason for it.

I agree 100%.