Rush Limbaugh: Do you realize it may well be the Democrat primary race is over?

[bb1961]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Trump won fair and square in 2016. The popular vote and Russian interference are false excuses for Hillary's electoral defeat.

But that's not the issue at hand. There have only been 4 elections, out of 57 total, where the winner won the electoral college but didn't get the largest percentage of the popular vote. So what happened in 2016 was a relatively rare event. If you're counting on Democrats to win heavily on the west coast and in New York and New England, and to barely lose most of the rest of the country, so that Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote, don't hold your breath, especially if Biden is the nominee. Biden would probably carry Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, states that Trump won in 2016

Are you and speed brothers...because you and him throw coins in the same wishing well...
You and him are into a lot of "IFS"...if wishes were horses then beggars would ride...
Bring him on...he's his own worst enemy!!
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-b...b0796a95dcddd4
And motherfucker jones...no friend of the right...
https://www.motherjones.com/politics...ft-him-behind/
Yeah tiny and that is what his chances of winner are...TINY.
P.S. There is no excuse for Hellery.

[Tiny]

Thank you for getting this thread back on topic bb. Sorry, I saw that Biden supported a fence, which I believe is a great idea, and didn't delve into the nuances of the article. I definitely agree with him that noncitizen veterans should not be deported.

Yes it's interesting that the Huffington Post and Mother Jones are doing hatchet jobs on Biden, perhaps because they support some of his radical far left competitors. That's probably not going to do a ton of good though when he's polling almost 3X higher than the next highest candidate and when he's going to have the backing of a good part of the Democratic Party establishment.

As to "overcoming" his past, Trump has shown it can be done. Like a lot of rent seeking capitalists who took advantage of government largess, the Donald Trump of the 1990's was a Democrat, and he was to the left of Biden. He would have allowed partial birth abortions and he supported an Elizabeth Warren wealth tax. If he can overcome that and affairs with Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal while his wife was taking care of their newborn son, then Biden should have a comparatively easy time overcoming his past in the primaries.

If he pivots towards the center in a general election, some of these old positions could be an asset instead of a liability.

Aside: Honestly, I don't hold any of that against Trump except I don't trust him on taxes.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

I continue to put the re-election odds of Trump at 50-50. So much will change between now and November 2020. Assuming Biden is the Democratic candidate, I agree with Tiny that he will be much stronger than Hillary Clilnton was in the midwest, which will go a long way to determining who wins the election.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I continue to put the re-election odds of Trump at 50-50. So much will change between now and November 2020. Assuming Biden is the Democratic candidate, I agree with Tiny that he will be much stronger than Hillary Clilnton was in the midwest, which will go a long way to determining who wins the election.

The British betting sites put the probability of Trump's re-election at about 45%, and predictit.org is at 41%.

The betting sites give Biden about a 17% probability of winning it all. I might take a punt on Biden if I lived someplace where betting were legal.

[bb1961]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The British betting sites put the probability of Trump's re-election at about 45%, and predictit.org is at 41%.

The betting sites give Biden about a 17% probability of winning it all. I might take a punt on Biden if I lived someplace where betting were legal.

What were the betting site odds on the 2016 election...you could have become an instant millionaire if you would have bet big on Trump the looooong shot!!
I will GUARANTEE if the economy is still booming he is a sure bet...want to bet??
This ridiculous circus going on in the House isn't doing the left any favors and when the unlawful FISA investigation moves into full swing the left is FUCKED and they know it!!
Why do you think the "advice" the left has for Trump...being they are they soooo concerned about "helping" him...in what to talk about and what not to talk about....Hummmmm

[Redhot1960]

Originally Posted by Tiny

In recent polls, Biden is pulling ahead of the pack. Almost 3X as many Democrats would pick him as the next highest candidate, Bernie Sanders,

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tion-6730.html

Rush Limbaugh is predicting Biden will face Trump in the general election:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/lim...eading-the-way

Like Trump, he's trying to find a silver lining. Limbaugh's is that some Bernie Sanders supporters will vote for Trump. Fat chance. They might stay home but they won't vote for Trump.

Biden is going to be a lot harder to beat than Hillary Clinton, and Hillary Clinton won the majority of the popular vote.

Trump supporters can't bank on the economy, which may not be so peachy come November of 2020. While economists don't think Trump's tariffs will markedly hurt people here, they said the same thing the last time Republicans supported a trade war, in 1930. That didn't turn out so well.

[Redhot1960]

Originally Posted by Tiny

In recent polls, Biden is pulling ahead of the pack. Almost 3X as many Democrats would pick him as the next highest candidate, Bernie Sanders,

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tion-6730.html

Rush Limbaugh is predicting Biden will face Trump in the general election:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/lim...eading-the-way

Like Trump, he's trying to find a silver lining. Limbaugh's is that some Bernie Sanders supporters will vote for Trump. Fat chance. They might stay home but they won't vote for Trump.

Biden is going to be a lot harder to beat than Hillary Clinton, and Hillary Clinton won the majority of the popular vote.

Trump supporters can't bank on the economy, which may not be so peachy come November of 2020. While economists don't think Trump's tariffs will markedly hurt people here, they said the same thing the last time Republicans supported a trade war, in 1930. That didn't turn out so well.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by I B Hankering

Biden will not survive the primaries. He's already repeated the insult that all Trump supporters are racists. He's apologized for being white and male, like those things should be despised. His attack on Clarence Thomas was straight up racist. He was against busing for integration. He's on record as being involved in some very shady business in Ukraine the details of which are still leaking out. He's on record as being for the wall that he now says he is against. He was vice president when Odumbo and hildebeest breathed new life into the African slave trade in Libya. He's on record as ghost whispering to foreign leaders who have been dead for years. He's made repeated racist remarks and there's his touchy-feely thing in the "#MeToo" era. He won't survive.

He does get away with a lot of inappropriate touching. I wouldn't dare try the shit he does on a routine basis for fear of being thrown in jail for sexual contact with [redacted].

Somehow the Dems don't care about his shameful treatment of Anita Hill, either.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by bb1961

I will GUARANTEE if the economy is still booming he is a sure bet...want to bet??

I don't have a dog in this hunt. I'd vote for Alfred E. Neuman over the major candidates, including Pete Buttigieg. But to make things interesting, how about this. If Trump wins the 2020 election, I stop posting in the Political Forum from whenever election results are announced until the end of 2020. If anyone else wins, including Mike Pence, you quit posting until the end of 2020. So the loser shuts up for 2 months. In the words of the best candidate for the presidency in 2016, Are You In? Let me know here, in this thread, by high noon Texas time, Tuesday or there's no bet.

[bb1961]

Let make it for good...if the economy is still booming...
Mike Pence...where did that come from...that would be a first in history...VP takes nomination away from sitting President!!

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by bb1961

Let make it for good...if the economy is still booming...
Mike Pence...where did that come from...that would be a first in history...VP takes nomination away from sitting President!!

Yes, you'd lose the bet if Pence took the nomination away from Trump, but a more likely possibility would be that Trump dies before the election, in which case you'd also lose.

I'm not willing to do the bet contingent on the economy still booming. I am willing to give you a similar deal to what you'd get on the British betting sites, kind of like points if we were betting on a football game. So here's the revised proposal. If Trump loses, then you stay out of the political forum for 45 days from the date we know the results. If we know the results on November 4, 2020, you'd be off until December 19, 2020. If Trump wins, then I can't post for 55 days. So I'd have to be off until December 29.

So this is to correspond, more or less, to the 45% probability of a Trump win you can get on a betting site.

Deal or No Deal?

[Chung Tran]

Guys, this fucking Site may not be here in November, 2020! not after what Trump has forced into law.

of course Trump wins IF the economy is "still" booming.. but by any reasonable measure, it has boomed for one quarter.. remember the end of 2018, how shaky things seemed? throw in Iran, China, and North Korea today, and the one quarter may be all we get.


Biden is not the ideal candidate some think.. so what he is way ahead now? means nothing.. what means something is his frazzled speech, his arrogance, and the fact that other than Nixon, no similarly losing candidate ever made a comeback of the sort Biden would need, politically.. he is long in the tooth, and Democrats want new and more leftist blood. Bob Dole looked good on paper, he got his ass handed to him. Mondale, same. long-time politicians who fit the suit, but nobody would energize for. who REALLY wants Biden? a few Corporate Donors, but few real voting people. what Biden's big lead tells me, is no other candidate has emerged, so Biden is the fall back position.. for now.. means nothing. Sanders had some momentum, that Biden stopped for now. but Biden will not last.. his lead will be gone by August.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

The fact is that Trump beat the "smartest" woman in the world. How can Uncle Joe do better than that?

If it is Uncle Joe, all he needs to do is flip Penn, Michigan and Wisconsin back to blue. These are three states that Obama won twice and Hillary lost. Hillary did not campaign that much, if at all in these states. These three states are up for grabs. If the democrat flips these three states and wins the same 230 electoral college votes that Hillary got, that would be enough to go over 270 and win the election. Don't forget uncle Joe is from Penn, he should really focus on Michigan and Wisconsin, if he gets the nomination.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

Guys, this fucking Site may not be here in November, 2020! not after what Trump has forced into law.

of course Trump wins IF the economy is "still" booming.. but by any reasonable measure, it has boomed for one quarter.. remember the end of 2018, how shaky things seemed? throw in Iran, China, and North Korea today, and the one quarter may be all we get.


Biden is not the ideal candidate some think.. so what he is way ahead now? means nothing.. what means something is his frazzled speech, his arrogance, and the fact that other than Nixon, no similarly losing candidate ever made a comeback of the sort Biden would need, politically.. he is long in the tooth, and Democrats want new and more leftist blood. Bob Dole looked good on paper, he got his ass handed to him. Mondale, same. long-time politicians who fit the suit, but nobody would energize for. who REALLY wants Biden? a few Corporate Donors, but few real voting people. what Biden's big lead tells me, is no other candidate has emerged, so Biden is the fall back position.. for now.. means nothing. Sanders had some momentum, that Biden stopped for now. but Biden will not last.. his lead will be gone by August.

No Biden is not ideal. None of the Demonrats are. Since most are pandering to the far left, that's actually an advantage for Biden and along with his name recognition is the reason he's jumped out in the polls.

most of the time the front-runner early on does not get the nomination. Trump cast aside that trend last time. He was the front-runner the moment he declared and was never seriously challenged.

Biden is done before he starts. His dirt as a creepy molester will bring him down along with his corrupt dealings. like this ...

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/robert-mue...151251216.html

remember this?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...test/17427857/

Creepy Joe is done.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

If it is Uncle Joe, all he needs to do is flip Penn, Michigan and Wisconsin back to blue. These are three states that Obama won twice and Hillary lost. Hillary did not campaign that much, if at all in these states. These three states are up for grabs. If the democrat flips these three states and wins the same 230 electoral college votes that Hillary got, that would be enough to go over 270 and win the election. Don't forget uncle Joe is from Penn, he should really focus on Michigan and Wisconsin, if he gets the nomination.

Look at the four polls that have been done in those states. Biden's trouncing Trump. Admittedly though there's not much data and it's a long time to November 2020.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6861.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6849.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6761.html