Beginning of the end for stock bubble?

[WTF]

Originally Posted by DSK

Yes, they did - if we are ever stupid enough to give up our currency, we will be as fucked as them. I think they realize that now - control of the money is key.

Ironically, that is why I don't mind your workers sending their money to Mexico - it just further legitimizes our dollar hegemony. In a way, they are working for free since we just print the money anyway. Poor bastards.

That money is turned into food and shelter!

One day exNYer will even be right but we are not close to that day.

[JD Barleycorn]

Originally Posted by WombRaider

I knew as soon as I saw this thread, JD and his goddamn 401k would make an appearance. I really hope you have more than a 401k to retire on, especially with where the govt is capping pre-tax contributions nowadays. How is your YTD looking against 10-year bonds? How long has it been since you rebalanced?

Tried to give you a heads up but some people (this includes you) are too stupid to listen.

Right now it feels like being on the deck of the Titanic looking at the cold water below. You don't know how bad the ship is damaged or whether it is sinking. Of course there are those walking around muttering about how the ship is unsinkable and the Captain will save us all. The Captain doesn't really care about you this time. He cares about getting credit while getting his friends off the ship with their money. I bet George Soros isn't taking a hit.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by ExNYer

We have printed money and piled up debt, but we have not reached a point where we can pay down debt or where the economy grows so fast that the national debt shrinks as a percentage of GDP.

yup.. we are up to 123% of debt vs. GDP, absolutely stratospheric levels..

Originally Posted by ExNYer

How do we get out of the next recession?

crash and reboot.. Jefferson said we need to completely overhaul the Government every 20 years.. economies need to crash every 6-8 years, sort out the winners and losers, re-allocate funds, both private and Governmental, and start over.

Originally Posted by WombRaider

What drives economic activity? Do those things; reduce tax rates across the board on investment, income, etc.

no! we have had low rates on investment for a long time.. no economic activity was created, just a drain on tax revenue.. other than start-ups, the stock market is trading pieces of paper among people who hope to make more than they paid, no one else benefits, no economic activity is generated.. the wealthy have ridden 6 years of market gains and paid less historically in taxes.. bonds, especially private activity bonds have their own tax advantages that are not disputable. income taxes? not yet.. the current economic state must crash first, then cut taxes as part of a recovery plan.. cutting them now doesn't reduce risk or encourage the extra cash to go for business ventures.

Originally Posted by WTF

Falling gas prices soon to come will be a benefit to most Americans.

soon to come when? the price per barrel has slipped rapidly, the pump price has drifted lower.. a dichotomy unlike any other period of time.. in late 2008 pump prices mirrored barrel pricing.. granted, we may see some reduction after Labor Day, when prices typically drop anyway.. in Chicago/Detroit/Milwaukee prices are actually increasing.

Originally Posted by DSK

We do not need anyone to loan us any money. We print the world's currency, and as long as the other stupid motherfuckers are dumber than us, we can continue to do so.

What does the world have can't do without?
Stocks go up and down all the time - buy a few good ones and otherwise invest in yourself and your love for your family, then just eat, drink, and be merry.

pretty well sums it up.. a lot of our problem is the world's problem, we're in a race to see who can fuck up faster and more efficiently.. there's some evidence we're not winning.

[WombRaider]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

yup.. we are up to 123% of debt vs. GDP, absolutely stratospheric levels..


crash and reboot.. Jefferson said we need to completely overhaul the Government every 20 years.. economies need to crash every 6-8 years, sort out the winners and losers, re-allocate funds, both private and Governmental, and start over.



no! we have had low rates on investment for a long time.. no economic activity was created, just a drain on tax revenue.. other than start-ups, the stock market is trading pieces of paper among people who hope to make more than they paid, no one else benefits, no economic activity is generated.. the wealthy have ridden 6 years of market gains and paid less historically in taxes.. bonds, especially private activity bonds have their own tax advantages that are not disputable. income taxes? not yet.. the current economic state must crash first, then cut taxes as part of a recovery plan.. cutting them now doesn't reduce risk or encourage the extra cash to go for business ventures.


soon to come when? the price per barrel has slipped rapidly, the pump price has drifted lower.. a dichotomy unlike any other period of time.. in late 2008 pump prices mirrored barrel pricing.. granted, we may see some reduction after Labor Day, when prices typically drop anyway.. in Chicago/Detroit/Milwaukee prices are actually increasing.



pretty well sums it up.. a lot of our problem is the world's problem, we're in a race to see who can fuck up faster and more efficiently.. there's some evidence we're not winning.

Exactly right. DOW went from 6K to 18K, but did we really triple? Fuck no. It was all casino games and smoke and mirrors bullshit, which is what Wall St has turned into with the endless derivatives and bullshit they've created to 'spread risk' they'll tell you, but it's horseshit.

[BigLouie]

Originally Posted by JD Barleycorn

I think I brought this up a couple of months ago when I was discussing my declining 401K despite weekly contributions. I remember the Baby Killer openly showing his ignorance of all things economic. Well, my 401K is still declining and now the graph pretty much shows it off. To jog your memories, my 401K was holding steady for about four or five months. That is next to zero growth despite weekly contributions. That shows that the market is dropping in reality despite the appearance of an increase. That steady (but zero growth) trend has now become a downward trend in the last month. The purpose of a 401K is not to accrue money but to show profit. My 401K shows that profit as an area of green above the line which denotes actual investments. That green area is half of what it was six months ago. At the current rate I will be back to my actual investment in a couple of months. As I said then, the market is failing and it is being hidden with tricks of the system.

You really don't understand the market and investments based on your statements. It would be my suggestion to take some time and read The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb. During the last year you should have been moving some money to cash and some to shorting the market. The problem with the market this week has to do with what happens when China tried to control both their economy and their stock market as well as their currency. Never going to work.

I realize you will come back with insults and name calling, it's your nature. But I am trying to be helpful. Read the book.

[WombRaider]

Originally Posted by BigLouie

You really don't understand the market and investments based on your statements. It would be my suggestion to take some time and read The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb. During the last year you should have been moving some money to cash and some to shorting the market. The problem with the market this week has to do with what happens when China tried to control both their economy and their stock market as well as their currency. Never going to work.

I realize you will come back with insults and name calling, it's your nature. But I am trying to be helpful. Read the book.

Excellent advice. China tried it half-ass and it didn't work. What they don't understand is that regardless of what control you think you have, the market will always correct itself. It's in its nature.

Anyone who watches their 401k monthly, obviously has a tenuous grasp on investing. He never got back to me on whether he rebalanced it in the last 12 months or not. He should have.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by JD Barleycorn

Tried to give you a heads up but some people (this includes you) are too stupid to listen.

JDIdiot, there were quite a few of us who "tried to give you heads up" that the missing Malaysian Airlines 777 was not parked on some remote island, camouflaged by netting and wilted shrubs.

But, "you are too stupid to listen."

[JD Barleycorn]

Originally Posted by BigLouie

You really don't understand the market and investments based on your statements. It would be my suggestion to take some time and read The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb. During the last year you should have been moving some money to cash and some to shorting the market. The problem with the market this week has to do with what happens when China tried to control both their economy and their stock market as well as their currency. Never going to work.

I realize you will come back with insults and name calling, it's your nature. But I am trying to be helpful. Read the book.

Oh, I understand but do you understand 401Ks? A company will bring a company on board and that company has a limited number of options. Maybe you want to invest in gold or silver but they don't have that as an option. Money Market? Maybe I did move some of my money but you're still trying to find traction and make some profit, not just survive. I came out a month ago and wrote on this site about how China's stock market had lost 28 % of its value in month and how China was trying to prop up its market with cash. Name calling? You don't know me very well then. Yes, we've agreed that your name is Louise but I hardly call that name calling. I react poorly when someone pretends to be stupid (like NBK) in order to sidestep an argument or acts like a three year old like Tampon.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by JD Barleycorn

I react poorly when someone pretends to be stupid

The truth finally comes out!

JDIdiot "reacts poorly" when he reads his own "stupid" conspiracy theory posts.

JD, have you located the remote island yet?

[BigLouie]

Originally Posted by JD Barleycorn

Oh, I understand but do you understand 401Ks? A company will bring a company on board and that company has a limited number of options. Maybe you want to invest in gold or silver but they don't have that as an option. Money Market?

Gold! OMG That is about the worst thing you can have in your 401K. Do you have any gold? What's happened to it's value this year? Over the last 10 years the price of gold reached it's high point in August 2011 with a price of $1,921.73. Since then it has done nothing but drop. July of this year it hit $1,098.40 which means it came close to losing half it's value since 2011. Today it stands at $1,159.90 which is still a 42% drop in value.

Every 401K plan has or should have large cap funds, mid-cap funds, small-cap funds, high yield bonds, international funds, REIT funds. It is rare that I see one with precious metals.

On mine, over the course of the year I have been reducing the amount in the SP500 fund. What have you been doing?

[gfejunkie]

You have to be able to read the stitches on the fast balls. I saw this shit coming months ago and moved back to cash.

I may only be .25% richer, but I'm not 25% in the hole! With my kind of volume I can be happy with that. For now. I'll stay that way too. Until China signals that they've got they're shit together. I don't see that happening any time soon.

In today's world market when somebody sniffles we all catch cold.

This is going to last a while.

[WombRaider]

Originally Posted by gfejunkie

You have to be able to read the stitches on the fast balls. I saw this shit coming months ago and moved back to cash.

I may only be .25% richer, but I'm not 25% in the hole! With my kind of volume I can be happy with that. For now. I'll stay that way too. Until China signals that they've got they're shit together. I don't see that happening any time soon.

In today's world market when somebody sniffles we all catch cold.

This is going to last a while.

If you saw it coming, why not take advantage of this knowledge and make some serious cash? The truth is you didn't see IT coming, you saw something coming.

[gfejunkie]

Originally Posted by WombRaider

If you saw it coming, why not take advantage of this knowledge and make some serious cash?

Who said I didn't?
Along the way...

[BigLouie]

Originally Posted by WombRaider

If you saw it coming, why not take advantage of this knowledge and make some serious cash? The truth is you didn't see IT coming, you saw something coming.

If you're a turkey on a farm and all year the farmer has been fattening you up, how can you expect Thanksgiving to happen.

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by DSK

We do not need anyone to loan us any money. We print the world's currency, and as long as the other stupid motherfuckers are dumber than us, we can continue to do so.

Don't China and Japan own about 45% of our debt?

Originally Posted by BigLouie

During the last year you should have been moving some money to cash and some to shorting the market.

True, I think the main issues are collapse of oil prices which is where most of the jobs were in TX over the last two years and the eventual rise of interest rates. My brother and some folks on the Biz Channels swear we are going to have QE4 in Sept.