Investment Opinions

[billw1032]

Originally Posted by 69er

If you are coming here asking for investment advice...
I don't think you should be day trading in commodities or options.

The posters above have not asked the basic questions: How much do you have to invest, how long till retirement, do you have other needs for cash before then, what investments do you hold now? Yet they gave advice. Without answers to the questions above, their advice is SHIT! What they propose may fit their goals, but may have little or no fit to your goals.

This is not the place for these details, as done properly, this is going to get personal. I would suggest a financial planner.

When it comes to picking one, I'd start by talking with at least three. Meet with them and be ready to discuss what kinds of investments you have today, and ask them what they think you should be doing. A good advisor will probably spend as much time listening to you, and asking questions, as you do listening and questioning him. Financial advisors can get paid in a number of ways. Ask them how they make their money, and what you can expect.

The most important investing decision, is the decision to invest, and to do so on a consistent basis. After that, where to invest has a great deal to do with your stomach for risk, and your time horizons for the money. These are decisions an advisor can help you with, while working some tax strategy in an effort to hold onto some of those gains.

+1 Probably the best post on investing I've seen on this board. Just one additional thought: if you get a Financial Planner, make sure he is salaried or working for a fixed fee and NOT on commission for what he sells you. Probably this is what 69er meant (correct me if I'm wrong on that). A planner on commission is NOT working in your best interest.

[Lust4xxxLife]

Originally Posted by cookie man

...Responsible Americans realize that it's time to live within our means....

Of course. Everyone thinks that. The difference of opinion is what America should spend the money on. Most Americans think that we can't afford tax subsidies for oil companies and tax cuts for the rich. The Republicans think these things belong in a 'living within our means' budget. They feel we can pay for it by doubling the cost of health care for seniors, among other asinine proposals.

Please... this is an appeal... look at the details and take the time to understand how fucked up this is.

If these dick head Republicans in Washington force a default, this country will experience a collapse equal to that experienced by the Soviet Union.

Interest rates will go through the roof. The limping housing industry will collapse–again. The stock market will lose 40-50% of it's value. Unemployment will double. The value of the dollar will drop 30%... everything will cost more. The deficit will INCREASE by a HUGE amount because it will cost us so much more to borrow money. Dark, dark, days.

Don't support this shit... it will do so much damage.

Don't be dumb-asses people... get educated. This stuff matters. Your standard of living depends on it. Your ability to hobby depends on it!!!

L4L

[cookie man]

Thank you 69er and Bill for your advice, and I agree completely. On a scale of 1-10 I use to be a 10 on risk. Now I'm probably a 7. I've learned a lot from day trading back in the tech bubble days. Thus far I'm far exceeding other investment options and will continue to keep a few stocks for momentum trading.

The bottom line is that I feel I was spending too much in fees with my mutual funds. Index funds seem to do very well and charge less maintenance fees. I'm going to put a third of my money in them and see how it goes.

I am 57 and could retire now. However a million bucks doesn't go as far as it use to. When I get in my 60's, I may look to a financial advisor to find tax benefits and investment options that pay me a salary I can live on. I do appreciate the advice.

Lust4XXXLife I could be wrong but I think you are a victim of the Obama scare tactic. I think the government will come to an agreement, but it really won't change the bottom line. We are messed up, but we are less messed up than everyone else.

[TexTushHog]

Re: Debt Limit.

I've moved about 40% of my U.S. equity holdings into cash. Those with large capital gains I've left where they are. However, I do think that if there is a temporary decline in the market it will be a buying opportunity. The Republicans can't persist with their detachment from reality when their constituents stock portfolios are coming apart at the seams. If we see a 30% decline or so, I'm moving back in.

As for my non-dollar denominated holdings, I'm keeping them where they are. I think that the weakness of the dollar will help with returns there, especially Asia (ex-Japan) and BRIC investments, although I'm quite light on Russia and have limited my exposure to Brazilian petroleum investments as I have enough oil and gas exposure elsewhere. I also think non-hedged euro-corporate bonds are a good place to be right now.

[Lust4xxxLife]

Originally Posted by cookie man

Lust4XXXLife I could be wrong but I think you are a victim of the Obama scare tactic. I think the government will come to an agreement, but it really won't change the bottom line. We are messed up, but we are less messed up than everyone else.

Cookie Man - I don't pay attention to Obama or Boner. They're both politicians. Both parties are fucked up. They're both chasing votes, not solutions. I follow the banks and the economists, especially those outside this country. We are NOT less messed up than everyone else, and we can definitely take down a lot of other countries with us. ALL of the other G8 countries are in better shape than us but because of our economic footprint our default can trigger a global economic meltdown.

Here's the bottom line: America's debt rating right now is triple A. That's the best it can be. If America doesn't raise the debt ceiling and meet all it's obligations, that rating will be downgraded. That will immediately spike all interest rates for our country and for each individual taxpayer. Our deficit and debt will skyrocket because of the additional interest costs. Our housing market will collapse. This is not fantasy... this is reality.

If any of you don't understand this... you need to. This is the time to get off your asses and pay attention. The country's future is at stake. It's that serious.

L4L

[Lust4xxxLife]

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

Re: Debt Limit.

I've moved about 40% of my U.S. equity holdings into cash. Those with large capital gains I've left where they are. However, I do think that if there is a temporary decline in the market it will be a buying opportunity. The Republicans can't persist with their detachment from reality when their constituents stock portfolios are coming apart at the seams. If we see a 30% decline or so, I'm moving back in.

As for my non-dollar denominated holdings, I'm keeping them where they are. I think that the weakness of the dollar will help with returns there, especially Asia (ex-Japan) and BRIC investments, although I'm quite light on Russia and have limited my exposure to Brazilian petroleum investments as I have enough oil and gas exposure elsewhere. I also think non-hedged euro-corporate bonds are a good place to be right now.

If you've moved your U.S. equity holdings into US cash, then I think you're taking a big risk... or missing a big opportunity. A default will significantly impact the value of the dollar. Get that cash moved somewhere else.

[billw1032]

Originally Posted by Lust4xxxLife

If America doesn't raise the debt ceiling and meet all it's obligations, that rating will be downgraded. That will immediately spike all interest rates for our country and for each individual taxpayer.

I wonder if it's true that a downgrade matters that much. For municipal and corporate bonds it definitely does matter, but I think the major buyers of US Treasury bonds don't need the ratings agencies to tell them what the situation is and it's probably already priced in. Bill Gross, the bond guru at PIMCO, announced a few weeks ago that he has already sold all of his US Treasury securities. With regard to a downgrade, the head of S&P ratings was interviewed the other day and he is not just looking for a debt ceiling increase -- he thinks a deficit reduction is needed on the order of the largest number anyone has been talking about. Even if the debt ceiling is increased there might still be a downgrade if there isn't sufficient real deficit reduction.

Originally Posted by Lust4xxxLife

Our deficit and debt will skyrocket because of the additional interest costs.

This is going to happen eventually whether there is a downgrade or not. Interest rates have to go up eventually (unless the Fed goes crazy with the printing presses). The congress critters who are talking about deficit reduction better increase their targets because more and more is going to be eaten up by interest.

Originally Posted by Lust4xxxLife

Our housing market will collapse.

The housing market is already pretty bad with interest rates where they are. I wonder how much worse it can get.

Originally Posted by Lust4xxxLife

If any of you don't understand this... you need to. This is the time to get off your asses and pay attention. The country's future is at stake. It's that serious.

True, but I doubt very many people really understand the situation. This probably includes a significant portion of congress.

Hope this wasn't too much of a thread hijack.

[seventonine]

I know this is likely to be boring, but we should be concerned about the debt ceiling...

+1 Lust4xxLife -
a) "They're [all] politicians.... They're [all] chasing votes, not solutions." and
b) "If you've moved your U.S. equity holdings into US cash, then I think you're taking a big risk... "

A downgrade results in a ripple effect. Long term, the value of the USD has weakened when measured by both exchange rates and treasuries, in part, due to the $14 trillion debt.

The USD is held by foreign governments in foreign currency reserves, i.e., Japan, Saudi Arabia, China, etc., that are generated when their respective exports exceed their imports.

When the USD declines, the value of foreign govt reserves declines resulting in situations where govts are less willing to hold USDs in reserve. As govts diversify their holdings into other currencies, this reduces demand for the USD which in turn places more downward pressure on the value of the USD.

An example of the impact in a USD decline:
- Assume the dollar is worth 3.75 Saudi riyals.
- Assume a barrel of oil is worth $100USD or 375 Saudi riyals.
- Assume the USD declines 20% against the euro. 1) the value of a barrel of oil just declined 20% to the Saudis. 2) the value of the riyal, which is fixed to the USD, also declined 20% against the euro.
- Therefore, for a Saudi to purchase a French export, s/he must now pay more euros than they did before the USD declined.
- To avoid this, the Saudis raise the price of oil by threatening to limit supply or they tie cash from oil sales to the euro rather than the $. Either way, not good for us.

Maybe one reason to consider gold and silver holdings as part of your portfolio.

Just an opinion. 7-2-9

[Luvgcz]

you might consider trading the E-Mini S&P 500. Be sure to READ about the psychology of day trading. It's very important to be able to treat the funds as 'play money'. Oh yes, most of those gurus that are trying to sell you their 'trading sytems' are just taking your money.
Day trading is not for everyone, and most people lose money.

[makmak]

Go to this Website, and take the survey. Then stick to their recommendation, either through IFA or through your own account at Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab etc. Balanace the portfolio every 366 days (Capital Gains, short term vs. long term).

http://www.ifa.com/

There are no get rich quick schemes.

[TexTushHog]

Originally Posted by Lust4xxxLife

If you've moved your U.S. equity holdings into US cash, then I think you're taking a big risk... or missing a big opportunity. A default will significantly impact the value of the dollar. Get that cash moved somewhere else.

I think that would be true if there was a ling term lack of a deal. But I can't see any "crisis"lasting more than a week without Republicans caving in. I think the worst we're looking at is a very short term blip. Besides, I'm already 55-60% in unhedged international investments already, if you exclude real-estate and oil and gas.

[Eklutna]

As they say on ZeroHedge.com, listen to Cramer and do the opposite

[LovingKayla]

Covered calls, dividends, Silver and Gold has made me an F ton this year.


Alot of board members made fun of me for buying silver. In Your face AGAIN.

Good luck Cookie Man. Throw any awesome ideas this way!!!

[cookie man]

Originally Posted by LovingKayla

Covered calls, dividends, Silver and Gold has made me an F ton this year.


Alot of board members made fun of me for buying silver. In Your face AGAIN.

Good luck Cookie Man. Throw any awesome ideas this way!!!

Congrats on making a "F Ton"....lol. Kayla I'm just a simple cookie man looking for a nut. You did fantastic on your silver and gold. I have some but definitely wish I had more.

The time to invest is when everyone else is selling. Technology is slow and gold is too high for me now. I agree on buying some stable companies that pay dividends and are less affected by economic slow downs. With that being said, I'm buying an S&P index fund tomorrow. I'll review my worst performing mutual funds and probably move them into some large caps with dividends. People have to eat and hopefully more cookies!

However I never said I saw very smart.

[billw1032]

Originally Posted by cookie man

Congrats on making a "F Ton"....lol. Kayla I'm just a simple cookie man looking for a nut. You did fantastic on your silver and gold. I have some but definitely wish I had more.

The time to invest is when everyone else is selling. Technology is slow and gold is too high for me now. I agree on buying some stable companies that pay dividends and are less affected by economic slow downs. With that being said, I'm buying an S&P index fund tomorrow. I'll review my worst performing mutual funds and probably move them into some large caps with dividends. People have to eat and hopefully more cookies!

However I never said I saw very smart.

If you are looking for solid companies with dividends, check out the companies in the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index. S&P screens for a history of increasing dividends, an indication of consistently improving financial performance.