Economy close to tanking?

[Unique_Carpenter]

US Fed down to approx 4 & 7/8
Bank of England is holding at 5% (they dropped 8/1/24 to 5)

The big boys have clearly decided there's a world wide economic thing, not just specific countries.
My client's have all had a bit of belt tightening and minor staff reductions last several months, but, production orders are recently up for all of my folks.
I watch the PPI indexes which are usually a few months ahead of CPI.
And the stock market launched an hour ago. IMO because the Fed went a smidge below 5%, a smidge below what folks (pro economists not the newsies) had expected.
This stuff is real world, not a Monopoly game, that some of you present.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

US Fed down to approx 4 & 7/8
Bank of England is holding at 5% (they dropped 8/1/24 to 5)

The big boys have clearly decided there's a world wide economic thing, not just specific countries.
My client's have all had a bit of belt tightening and minor staff reductions last several months, but, production orders are recently up for all of my folks.
I watch the PPI indexes which are usually a few months ahead of CPI.
And the stock market launched an hour ago. IMO because the Fed went a smidge below 5%, a smidge below what folks (pro economists not the newsies) had expected.
This stuff is real world, not a Monopoly game, that some of you present.

Ag sector is probably in a recession, with all farm equipment manufactures laying off workers.


Dollar General and some other retail stores that cater to lower income to middle class customers are also struggling.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by txdot-guy

You clearly don’t understand the primary purpose of the feds interest rate.

Raising the rates increases borrowing costs for banks and consequently for businesses and consumers. This is intended to inhibit the growth of the economy and incentivize people to save money. It has the side effect of inhibiting employment as well. Keep it too high for too long and you risk a recession.

Lowering the rates is intended to have the opposite effect. To increase borrowing, growth, and employment. It inhibits savings in favor of investment.

Why would lowering rates indicate that the economy is “tanking “?

You don't understand anything about monetary policy.


The Feds goal is to try and keep inflation in check at 2%, it also has a goal of keeping unemployment and normal transitory levels of roughly 4%.


If they see signs of unemployment increasing the may increase interest rates. Normally they only change them a .25% at a time, by changing it by .5% signals they think they are starting to loose control and try to juice the economy, signalling the economic forecasts are too rosy as being reported by the Mainstream media

[Capital]

Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN

I went shopping at HEB tonight, which tells me everything I need to know about a horrible economy.



Only a big time democrat living in some sort of alternate universe can deny the economy tanking.

Tanking? You are delusional, my Friend.

We are in a GOLDILOCKS Economy. Dow and Nasdaq up over 500 points today, S&P 500 more than 100, and at an all-time high.

Employment still strong, wages good, inflation barely above Fed target for months now. Earnings growth for Companies expected to be 14% in 2025.

Asset values, your 401k, your home value, at all time highs.

You hate admitting it, I know, because it means your candidate will lose once again.

There's a term that fits the hard right on this Forum. Pale, Male, and Stale.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by Capital

Tanking? You are delusional, my Friend.

We are in a GOLDILOCKS Economy. Dow and Nasdaq up over 500 points today, S&P 500 more than 100, and at an all-time high.

Employment still strong, wages good, inflation barely above Fed target for months now. Earnings growth for Companies expected to be 14% in 2025.

Asset values, your 401k, your home value, at all time highs.

You hate admitting it, I know, because it means your candidate will lose once again.

There's a term that fits the hard right on this Forum. Pale, Male, and Stale.

But that is only the economy of the well to do that don't borrow money. It is built on a house of cards.

[Capital]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

by changing it by .5% signals they think they are starting to loose control and try to juice the economy, signalling the economic forecasts are too rosy as being reported by the Mainstream media

Nice try, but no.

Real interest rates were at extraordinarily high levels, they had not cut in 4 years. That's why they went 50. Even this morning the unemployment claims showed a sharp decrease. The FED does not need to juice the economy, nor was that a part of the rate decision. Try harder, you know the economy is very good.

[Capital]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

But that is only the economy of the well to do that don't borrow money. It is built on a house of cards.

No it isn't. Of course the well to do benefits more, they always do when an economy recovers, and is strong. Borrowing costs will be falling fast, and Harris will start taxing the wealthy properly. The low and middle class is still reaping benefits today.

What is "house of cards"? That is innuendo.

[Capital]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

Dollar General and some other retail stores that cater to lower income to middle class customers are also struggling.

Outliers. There are more stocks above their 100 day moving average today, than at any time ever.

Walmart is taking a lot of Dollar General traffic. It's not about a certain consumer segment collapsing.

Sometimes a company just fails to execute, and it has nothing to do with the economy. Like Starbucks

[Yssup Rider]

I wonder why the right is so anxious for the economy to tank.

[Unique_Carpenter]

Thank you YR.

But note, isn't the real issue getting the newsies to state the eco is floundering.

Just look at some if the above comments where folks here are debating news stories.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Capital

Tanking? You are delusional, my Friend.

We are in a GOLDILOCKS Economy. Dow and Nasdaq up over 500 points today, S&P 500 more than 100, and at an all-time high.

Employment still strong, wages good, inflation barely above Fed target for months now. Earnings growth for Companies expected to be 14% in 2025.

Asset values, your 401k, your home value, at all time highs.

You hate admitting it, I know, because it means your candidate will lose once again.

There's a term that fits the hard right on this Forum. Pale, Male, and Stale.

+1

@Capital, excellent post. You're correct, the Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes have gone thru the roof under Biden/Harris!

[Capital]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

I wonder why the right is so anxious for the economy to tank.

The economic conditions are the worst thing that could happen to the right. Their Commentators on Fox are saying Trump needs to get more focus, talk about the economy and the Border. But illegal crossings have plummeted since June, and the economy is humming.

Unless the right can sell us on Haitian quirky dining hoaxes, Trump is finished.

[DEAR_JOHN]

Originally Posted by Capital

Tanking? You are delusional, my Friend.

We are in a GOLDILOCKS Economy. Dow and Nasdaq up over 500 points today, S&P 500 more than 100, and at an all-time high.

Employment still strong, wages good, inflation barely above Fed target for months now. Earnings growth for Companies expected to be 14% in 2025.

Asset values, your 401k, your home value, at all time highs.

You hate admitting it, I know, because it means your candidate will lose once again.

There's a term that fits the hard right on this Forum. Pale, Male, and Stale.

[DEAR_JOHN]

Originally Posted by Capital

But illegal crossings have plummeted since June, and the economy is humming.

Since June, just enough time to attempt to save her ugly ass. Illegal crossings should've stopped 3 2/3 years ago when the old man and the border czar had the power.

[Capital]

Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN

Since June, just enough time to attempt to save her ugly ass. Illegal crossings should've stopped 3 2/3 years ago when the old man and the border czar had the power.

No argument here, but it did get done. And Harris never was Border Czar, she was tasked to study the reasons why people clamored to leave their own Countries, to make a difficult trek to get here. That's it. Sorry you can't pin the blame, the Donkey to blame leaves on January 20, at Noon sharp.