PREDICTION ON COMING ELECTORAL LANDSLIDE.....

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Whirlaway

You make no sense; politics is a reaction to events........and the November election will be about the past 44 months, not 1928 or 2008.

I quoted from your source. They mentioned 1928.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Whirlaway

Right on brother Joe; and add to the analysis the fact that most of the pollsters (Rahe calls them psephologists) have no clue how to adjust their polling technique to reflect Tea Party influences.....not to mention many polling consultants are purposely using sampling techniques that skew results to favor Democrats !

You two sure seem afraid to put your money where your big mouths are...

Bet your allowance to MR WTF!

[wellendowed1911]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

I think Romney will win. The most recent Rasmussen daily tracking poll, of likely voters, has Romney leading Obama 47% to 43%. Obama can't get his approval ratings above the mid forties. Historically approval ratings are usually a mirror image of presidential election outcome. The economy is in terrible shape and not getting any better. The Republicans have a 12% advantage in enthusiasm, which should translate into voter turnout. Romney is raising more money than Obama. Romney will be able to at least match Obama in spending, instead of being outspent by more than three to one, the way McCain was.

There is no reason to think the strong Republican victory in 2010 won't be duplicated in 2012. Bush 41 said that in politics, momentum is everything. In the 1980 Carter- Reagan presidential election, the polls were close going into the last week, but Reagan was gaining support and clearly had momentum. Reagan ultimately won 44 states. Everything points to an energized Republican base; the Chick-fil-A "flash mob", Tea Party favorite, Ted Cruz's 14% victory over (RINO) David Dewhurst and Glenn Beck's hugely successful rally in Dallas are all signs of an energized base.

Obama has to be sweating bullets.

How about taking me up on the same bet that I just offered or rather have offered WW for nearly a year.
The Chick-fil-a flash mob has nothing to do with GOP vs DEM- heck I am not for gay marriages but I am still not voting for Romney. Ted Cruz ran against another Republican what the hell does that have to do with Obama? Glenn Beck's huge turnout in Dallas??? Dallas and Texas as a whole is a conservative state- Can Beck get a huge crowd in a Huge liberal city? If you don't think DEMS are fired up you must be sipping the Kool-Aid- Obama will win- albeit a close election, but he will win- also what about this poll today: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ney/?hpt=hp_t1
What you guys are missing is if UE is 8.1% and let's just say your poll has Romney up by 4 points- that's nothing to be proud of- the last time we had a huge recession and an incumbent was in power(Carter) Reagan was kicking his ass 3 months prior to election.
However Joe let me know what wager you want to put on this election.

[CuteOldGuy]

I'll wager you two donuts and a cup of coffee. What are we betting on?

[CJ7]

Originally Posted by Whirlaway

No, not mine, but from respected Prof. Paul Rahe..........I suspect Team Obama knows what is coming as well...

tick, tick, tick.

"In my opinion, none of the psephologists…has reflected on the degree to which the administrative entitlements state – envisaged by Woodrow Wilson and the Progressives, instituted by Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and expanded by their successors – has entered a crisis, and none of them is sensitive to the manner in which Barack Obama, in his audacity, has unmasked that state’s tyrannical propensities and its bankruptcy. In consequence, none of these psephologists has reflected adequately on the significance of the emergence of the Tea-Party Movement, on the meaning of Scott Brown’s election and the particular context within which he was elected, on the election of Chris Christie as Governor of New Jersey and of Bob McDonnell as Governor of Virginia, and on the political earthquake that took place in November, 2010. That earthquake, which gave the Republicans a strength at the state and local level that they have not enjoyed since 1928, is a harbinger of what we will see this November. "


Read his whole article here.

http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Landslide-on-the-Horizon

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...support-slips/


not quiite a landslide

[TexTushHog]

Show me Romney's path to 270. It's a hard slog.

He's behind in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, etc. It's hard to predict this early, but Nate Siver, who I respect more than any other analyst, has Obama at around a 70% chance of winning the electoral college.

[CuteOldGuy]

There's still a lot of ground to cover, but Obama has a definite advantage. That's why he should shut up, and let Romney screw up, but I doubt if he will do that. If Obama loses, it will be because of his own arrogance, and not quitting when he was ahead.

[CJ7]

Originally Posted by CuteOldGuy

There's still a lot of ground to cover, but Obama has a definite advantage. That's why he should shut up, and let Romney screw up, but I doubt if he will do that. If Obama loses, it will be because of his own arrogance, and not quitting when he was ahead.

like I said during the GOP nomination

the dems were sipping wine, smoking cigars and talking notes while the candidates self destruct

now those notes are starting to surface in the form of Obie campaign ads.

I could say I told you so, but I wont

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by wellendowed1911

How about taking me up on the same bet that I just offered or rather have offered WW for nearly a year.
The Chick-fil-a flash mob has nothing to do with GOP vs DEM- heck I am not for gay marriages but I am still not voting for Romney. Ted Cruz ran against another Republican what the hell does that have to do with Obama? Glenn Beck's huge turnout in Dallas??? Dallas and Texas as a whole is a conservative state- Can Beck get a huge crowd in a Huge liberal city? If you don't think DEMS are fired up you must be sipping the Kool-Aid- Obama will win- albeit a close election, but he will win- also what about this poll today: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ney/?hpt=hp_t1
What you guys are missing is if UE is 8.1% and let's just say your poll has Romney up by 4 points- that's nothing to be proud of- the last time we had a huge recession and an incumbent was in power(Carter) Reagan was kicking his ass 3 months prior to election.
However Joe let me know what wager you want to put on this election.

Carter was ahead of Reagan, in most polls, up until the last few days in the 1980 election. The New Times poll had Carter ahead 43% to 41% on October 20, just days before the election. Reagan pulled ahead at the last minute and won by ten points.

The Ted Cruz victory was the result of Tea Party support; he was outspent several times over. That's relevant to the conservative base being energized. The same is true for Beck's rally and the Chick-fil-A "flash mob". Obama is the candidate that supports gay marriage, not Romney.

Yes Glenn Beck can get a crowd in a liberal city. Washington DC is the most liberal city in the country. Several hundred thousand people attended Glenn's Restoring Honor rally in DC on August 28, 2010, right before the huge Republican midterm victory.







From AmericanThinker.Com

On October 20, the CBS-New York Times poll has Carter beating Reagan by 43-41. On October 25, ABC-Harris has Reagan ahead by three points at 45-42. However, Gallup reports the next day that Carter is ahead 45-42. On October 27, CBS-New York Times has Carter ahead 42-39. On October 30, the Washington Post has Carter ahead by 43-39. The CBS-New York Times poll of November 1, 1980 shows some Reagan movement as the race reaches the wire, with the governor inching ahead 44-43, well within the margin of error. Gallup has Reagan up by three points that day. Finally, on election eve, November 3, 1980, the New York Times headlines this story by Adam Clymer: "Reagan and Carter Stand Nearly Even in Last Polls[.]"

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/...foot_poll.html

[Doove]

Originally Posted by LovingKayla

I've been looking up alot of the things I hear about Romney lately. It looks like it's all just red herring after red herring.

Which is what people like CJ7 have been pointing out about the criticisms on here of Obama for the last 2 years now.

Most criticisms of Obama over the last 4 years have been so ridiculously stupid that i think people are finally getting to the point where if they hear something negative about him, they just yawn.

Spend 4 years whining about the socialist marxist communist President, only to not have any socialist marxist communist wave take over the country, and that's what you get. And deserve.

Just desserts.

Originally Posted by joe bloe

Carter was ahead of Reagan, in most polls, up until the last few days in the 1980 election. The New Times poll had Carter ahead 43% to 41% on October 20, just days before the election. Reagan pulled ahead at the last minute and won by ten points.

FOX has Obama up by 9. That's.....9. A lot can happen, i'll grant you that, but really, what tangible circumstance can you point to which leads you to think Romney will overcome this and win? Outside of nothing more than you're wishing it to be so?

[Sidewinder]

Originally Posted by LovingKayla

I'd do just about anything to hear something truly horrible Romney has actually done.

Guys, you heard her. If someone can come up with something REAL, bad, and seriously juicy, there just might be a session in it for you.

[Fast Gunn]

Leaving your illusory "accuracy" aside, your prediction is nonetheless, correct for a change.

Personally, I predict that President Obama will be re-elected in November! It might even be close, but he will definitely win the election and do so decisively.

I would like to see the OPs face when the final results come in.

. . . No doubt, he will be "dumbfounded" once more on Tuesday night and that look on his face will be priceless!

Originally Posted by CuteOldGuy

Well, I have already predicted Obama's re-election. And you know my accuracy rating when it comes to predictions.

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by Doove

Which is what people like CJ7 have been pointing out about the criticisms on here of Obama for the last 2 years now.

Most criticisms of Obama over the last 4 years have been so ridiculously stupid that i think people are finally getting to the point where if they hear something negative about him, they just yawn.

Spend 4 years whining about the socialist marxist communist President, only to not have any socialist marxist communist wave take over the country, and that's what you get. And deserve.

Just desserts.



FOX has Obama up by 9. That's.....9. A lot can happen, i'll grant you that, but really, what tangible circumstance can you point to which leads you to think Romney will overcome this and win? Outside of nothing more than you're wishing it to be so?

The Fox poll oversamples (D+9) Democrats by 44% to 35% Republicans. This is based on the assumption that Democrats will get out the vote better than the 2008 election, which was a D+8 Democrat voter turnout. My guess is that voter turnout for Obama will be decreased from the Obamamania days, probably closer to D+5. I don't think there's any way Obama's base is more energized than last time; for some reason, almost all the polls make that assumption.

Rasmussen currently has Romney up by 47% to 43%. Rasmussen tied with Pew Research for most accurate polling data for the 2008 election. Several recent polls have the race within margin of error or Romney slightly ahead.

PollDateSampleMoEObama (D)Romney (R)SpreadRCP Average7/11 - 8/8----48.444.0Obama +4.4CNN/Opinion Research8/7 - 8/8911 RV3.55245Obama +7FOX News8/5 - 8/7930 RV3.04940Obama +9Rasmussen Tracking8/6 - 8/81500 LV3.04347Romney +4Gallup Tracking8/2 - 8/83050 RV2.04745Obama +2Reuters/Ipsos8/2 - 8/61014 RV3.44942Obama +7Democracy Corps (D)7/21 - 7/25700 LV3.75046Obama +4Pew Research7/16 - 7/261956 RV3.25141Obama +10NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl7/18 - 7/221000 RV3.14943Obama +6CBS News/NY Times7/11 - 7/16942 RV3.04647Romney +1
See All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data

[Laz]

I believe that Romney will win but I don't have a high level of confidence at this stage. I think the debates will be the key factor. If Romney does well his chances improve dramatically. I think a lot of people would like a change. They just need to be persuaded that Romney is an acceptable option.

[Doove]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

My guess...

In other words, you wish it to be so.