The Election Games! What will the margin of victory be?

[1blackman1]

Penn and Mich will determine the winner.

[Tiny]

Trump can sweep Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Still without Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or the 2nd Congressional district in Nebraska, he loses.

How about some forecasts from board members in the center and left-of-center? Are you chicken? Bawk bawk bawk bawk bawk!

Well, I suspect SpeedRacer and adav8s28 will take a shot. Those two shrewd cats will probably wait until the last possible moment, like November 12, to try to get an edge.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Popular vote means nothing.
It's entirely electoral college vote.
Pennsylvania is the key dog in this fight. Maybe another state.

As far as actual winner for President yes, but strength Senate and Congress might come into play a little more with a higher percentage of popular vote. But that is not a sure thing either.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Trump can sweep Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Still without Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or the 2nd Congressional district in Nebraska, he loses.

How about some forecasts from board members in the center and left-of-center? Are you chicken? Bawk bawk bawk bawk bawk!

Well, I suspect SpeedRacer and adav8s28 will take a shot. Those two shrewd cats will probably wait until the last possible moment, like November 12, to try to get an edge.

@Tiny, I will make my prediction now one week before the election.

1. Harris wins with 272 Electoral College votes to Trumps 266
2. Harris wins popular vote by one percent
3. Senate I will give Democrats 51 to 49 win and regain control
4. House I think remains Republican by 5 seats.

[texassapper]

The OP is going to have to define what they mean by the margin of victory.

Do you mean on election night, three days later, or 10 days later?

[Unique_Carpenter]

two states.
Pennsy being one of those

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Trump can sweep Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Still without Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or the 2nd Congressional district in Nebraska, he loses.

How about some forecasts from board members in the center and left-of-center? Are you chicken? Bawk bawk bawk bawk bawk!

Well, I suspect SpeedRacer and adav8s28 will take a shot. Those two shrewd cats will probably wait until the last possible moment, like November 12, to try to get an edge.

lol. I've been ignoring the board for a while. There are some participants on this forum whose posts just turned me off. Not you, of course, who I find to be one of the more astute posters on this forum

Anyway. Anyone who has been following the polls would be led to believe that the the election will be thisclose. Polls underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020 and predicted a red wave in 2022 which did not happen. In 2024, many pollsters have adjusted their polling strategies with built-in algorithms to correct the bias. I have the gut feeling that the adjustments have pushed the needle too far in Trump's direction.

Harris wins the popular vote by 2-3%.

Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pa. and wins the electoral vote.

Republicans take control of the Senate by 51-49 or 52-48.

Democrats win back the House narrowly.

Trump scares the crap out of me. Without worries about reelection in 2028, he will try to move as much power into the office of the president to the detriment of the people of this country. I hope I am wrong if he wins.

BTW, I have voted and I voted for Harris obviously but down ballot I voted for more Republicans than Democrats.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by texassapper

The OP is going to have to define what they mean by the margin of victory.

Do you mean on election night, three days later, or 10 days later?

As soon as all the votes are counted. Unfortunately several states do not start counting mail-in votes until election day, making results delayed.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Penn and Mich will determine the winner.

The closeness of the polls in Michigan surprises me. Trump barely won in 2016 in Michigan (0.23%) and lost in 2020 by 2.8%. a rather large turnaround. I just don't see Harris losing in Michigan. Maybe Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, which were very close in 2020.

[winn dixie]

As I've stated elsewhere. Penn is the key for trumpf and he has to hang on to nc and Georgia. Trumpf loses
Trumpf loses pop vote by plus one percent
Senate is retained by dems
House goes to dems by 5 plus seats
Magas failure will be complete

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by winn dixie

As I've stated elsewhere. Penn is the key for trumpf and he has to hang on to nc and Georgia. Trumpf loses
Trumpf loses pop vote by plus one percent
Senate is retained by dems
House goes to dems by 5 plus seats
Magas failure will be complete

And the end of the United States as a Constitutional Republic.