Welcome to ECCIE, become a part of the fastest growing adult community. Take a minute & sign up!

Welcome to ECCIE - Sign up today!

Become a part of one of the fastest growing adult communities online. We have something for you, whether you’re a male member seeking out new friends or a new lady on the scene looking to take advantage of our many opportunities to network, make new friends, or connect with people. Join today & take part in lively discussions, take advantage of all the great features that attract hundreds of new daily members!

Go Premium

Go Back   ECCIE Worldwide > General Interest > The Political Forum
test
The Political Forum Discuss anything related to politics in this forum. World politics, US Politics, State and Local.

Most Favorited Images
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
Most Liked Images
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
  • Thumb
Top Reviewers
cockalatte 646
MoneyManMatt 490
Still Looking 399
samcruz 399
Jon Bon 396
Harley Diablo 377
honest_abe 362
DFW_Ladies_Man 313
Chung Tran 288
lupegarland 287
nicemusic 285
You&Me 281
Starscream66 279
George Spelvin 265
sharkman29 255
Top Posters
DallasRain70793
biomed163231
Yssup Rider60927
gman4453294
LexusLover51038
offshoredrilling48646
WTF48267
pyramider46370
bambino42577
CryptKicker37215
The_Waco_Kid37006
Mokoa36496
Chung Tran36100
Still Looking35944
Mojojo33117

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 10-28-2024, 12:00 PM   #16
1blackman1
Lifetime Premium Access
 
Join Date: Nov 16, 2013
Location: Baton Rouge
Posts: 6,045
Encounters: 41
Default

Penn and Mich will determine the winner.
1blackman1 is offline   Quote
Old 10-28-2024, 12:33 PM   #17
Tiny
Lifetime Premium Access
 
Join Date: Mar 4, 2010
Location: Texas
Posts: 8,896
Encounters: 2
Default

Trump can sweep Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Still without Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or the 2nd Congressional district in Nebraska, he loses.

How about some forecasts from board members in the center and left-of-center? Are you chicken? Bawk bawk bawk bawk bawk!

Well, I suspect SpeedRacer and adav8s28 will take a shot. Those two shrewd cats will probably wait until the last possible moment, like November 12, to try to get an edge.
Tiny is online now   Quote
Old 10-28-2024, 01:29 PM   #18
farmstud60
Valued Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 22, 2011
Location: Omaha, NE nearby
Posts: 3,152
Encounters: 25
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter View Post
Popular vote means nothing.
It's entirely electoral college vote.
Pennsylvania is the key dog in this fight. Maybe another state.

As far as actual winner for President yes, but strength Senate and Congress might come into play a little more with a higher percentage of popular vote. But that is not a sure thing either.
farmstud60 is offline   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 04:12 AM   #19
adav8s28
Valued Poster
 
adav8s28's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 4, 2011
Location: sacremento
Posts: 3,586
Encounters: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiny View Post
Trump can sweep Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Still without Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or the 2nd Congressional district in Nebraska, he loses.

How about some forecasts from board members in the center and left-of-center? Are you chicken? Bawk bawk bawk bawk bawk!

Well, I suspect SpeedRacer and adav8s28 will take a shot. Those two shrewd cats will probably wait until the last possible moment, like November 12, to try to get an edge.
@Tiny, I will make my prediction now one week before the election.

1. Harris wins with 272 Electoral College votes to Trumps 266
2. Harris wins popular vote by one percent
3. Senate I will give Democrats 51 to 49 win and regain control
4. House I think remains Republican by 5 seats.
adav8s28 is offline   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 06:28 AM   #20
texassapper
Valued Poster
 
texassapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 19, 2017
Location: Dallas
Posts: 5,199
Encounters: 36
Default

The OP is going to have to define what they mean by the margin of victory.

Do you mean on election night, three days later, or 10 days later?
texassapper is offline   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 06:31 AM   #21
Unique_Carpenter
Chasing a Cowgirl
 
Unique_Carpenter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 19, 2013
Location: West Kansas
Posts: 31,425
Encounters: 89
Default

two states.
Pennsy being one of those
Unique_Carpenter is offline   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 06:47 AM   #22
SpeedRacerXXX
Valued Poster
 
SpeedRacerXXX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,317
Encounters: 2
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiny View Post
Trump can sweep Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Still without Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or the 2nd Congressional district in Nebraska, he loses.

How about some forecasts from board members in the center and left-of-center? Are you chicken? Bawk bawk bawk bawk bawk!

Well, I suspect SpeedRacer and adav8s28 will take a shot. Those two shrewd cats will probably wait until the last possible moment, like November 12, to try to get an edge.
lol. I've been ignoring the board for a while. There are some participants on this forum whose posts just turned me off. Not you, of course, who I find to be one of the more astute posters on this forum

Anyway. Anyone who has been following the polls would be led to believe that the the election will be thisclose. Polls underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020 and predicted a red wave in 2022 which did not happen. In 2024, many pollsters have adjusted their polling strategies with built-in algorithms to correct the bias. I have the gut feeling that the adjustments have pushed the needle too far in Trump's direction.

Harris wins the popular vote by 2-3%.

Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pa. and wins the electoral vote.

Republicans take control of the Senate by 51-49 or 52-48.

Democrats win back the House narrowly.

Trump scares the crap out of me. Without worries about reelection in 2028, he will try to move as much power into the office of the president to the detriment of the people of this country. I hope I am wrong if he wins.

BTW, I have voted and I voted for Harris obviously but down ballot I voted for more Republicans than Democrats.
SpeedRacerXXX is offline   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 06:49 AM   #23
SpeedRacerXXX
Valued Poster
 
SpeedRacerXXX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,317
Encounters: 2
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by texassapper View Post
The OP is going to have to define what they mean by the margin of victory.

Do you mean on election night, three days later, or 10 days later?
As soon as all the votes are counted. Unfortunately several states do not start counting mail-in votes until election day, making results delayed.
SpeedRacerXXX is offline   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 06:59 AM   #24
SpeedRacerXXX
Valued Poster
 
SpeedRacerXXX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,317
Encounters: 2
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1blackman1 View Post
Penn and Mich will determine the winner.
The closeness of the polls in Michigan surprises me. Trump barely won in 2016 in Michigan (0.23%) and lost in 2020 by 2.8%. a rather large turnaround. I just don't see Harris losing in Michigan. Maybe Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, which were very close in 2020.
SpeedRacerXXX is offline   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 08:13 AM   #25
winn dixie
Valued Poster
 
winn dixie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 5, 2017
Location: austin
Posts: 22,642
Encounters: 22
Default

As I've stated elsewhere. Penn is the key for trumpf and he has to hang on to nc and Georgia. Trumpf loses
Trumpf loses pop vote by plus one percent
Senate is retained by dems
House goes to dems by 5 plus seats
Magas failure will be complete
winn dixie is offline   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 08:58 AM   #26
farmstud60
Valued Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 22, 2011
Location: Omaha, NE nearby
Posts: 3,152
Encounters: 25
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by winn dixie View Post
As I've stated elsewhere. Penn is the key for trumpf and he has to hang on to nc and Georgia. Trumpf loses
Trumpf loses pop vote by plus one percent
Senate is retained by dems
House goes to dems by 5 plus seats
Magas failure will be complete

And the end of the United States as a Constitutional Republic.
farmstud60 is offline   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 12:54 PM   #27
eyecu2
Valued Poster
 
eyecu2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 21, 2011
Location: Bonerville
Posts: 5,955
Encounters: 82
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by farmstud60 View Post
And the end of the United States as a Constitutional Republic.
Nahh, but perhaps a loss of the extreme right wing media of FOX , BREITBART & Newsmax.

I think it's gonna be close, but PA & MI and WI will fall narrowly to Harris. Ga will go to Trump w NC. Nobody will get over 290 EC votes
eyecu2 is offline   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 05:12 PM   #28
Tiny
Lifetime Premium Access
 
Join Date: Mar 4, 2010
Location: Texas
Posts: 8,896
Encounters: 2
Default

Interesting strategy by adav8s28. In the electoral vote he's positioned himself for a close race, which everyone is predicting. Right now he'll win or tie if Trump prevails by 18 or less or if Harris wins by 10 or less. And in the Senate, he's going out on a limb predicting a Democratic victory. Well, that's the kind of courage that enabled him to win the COVID death guess game.

Speedracer, being the most avid poll watcher here, is the one to watch.

Here's how we stack up so far.

Electoral College

adav8s28: Harris by 6
Farmstud: Trump by 42
Tiny: Harris by 14

Popular Vote:

SpeedRacer: Harris by 2.5
adav8s28: Harris by 1
Farmstud: Trump by 0.5
Why Yes I Do: Trump by 51, baked
Tiny: Harris by 1

Senate

SpeedRacer: Repubs by 3
adav8s28: Dems by 2
Farmstud: Repubs by 4
Tiny: Repubs by 1

House

adav8s28: Repubs by 5
Farmstud: Repubs by 7.5
Tiny: Dems by 5

Observations

Winn Dixie hasn't entered the numbers game but predicts a Democratic Party sweep. And SpeedRacer looks for a narrow Democratic Party victory in the House.
Tiny is online now   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 05:26 PM   #29
Tiny
Lifetime Premium Access
 
Join Date: Mar 4, 2010
Location: Texas
Posts: 8,896
Encounters: 2
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX View Post
BTW, I have voted and I voted for Harris obviously but down ballot I voted for more Republicans than Democrats.
I voted for 5 Libertarians, 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Three of the Democrats were running for the State Court of Criminal Appeals and there were no Libertarians running in those races. I vote for the Dems figuring maybe they'll incarcerate fewer people than the Repubs. The 4th Democrat was running against a local state senator. The incumbent is corrupt and everyone knows he's corrupt but people vote for him anyway because he brings home the bacon.

I didn't vote for people running unopposed, all Republicans or unaffiliated, who I didn't know anything about. If I had, and if there hadn't been Libertarians on the ballot, I would have voted for a lot more Republicans than Democrats.

I voted for Cruz. I gave money to Cruz, even though I lost a lot of respect for him after he started kissing Trump's ass. I can't believe they're on good terms after what he said about his wife and father. Given I believe that Kamala's more likely to win the presidency, it's important for Republicans to win the Senate IMHO. That would be the best combination to hold down deficits and would provide some security that Kamala won't do away with the oil and gas industry, as she had planned if she'd won in 2020. Also the Democrats will probably weaken or possibly eliminate the filibuster if they win. That’s a very bad idea.

Quote:
Originally Posted by texassapper View Post
The OP is going to have to define what they mean by the margin of victory.

Do you mean on election night, three days later, or 10 days later?
On Monday, January 20, 2025.
Tiny is online now   Quote
Old 10-29-2024, 06:42 PM   #30
winn dixie
Valued Poster
 
winn dixie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 5, 2017
Location: austin
Posts: 22,642
Encounters: 22
Default

Harris 276 trumpf 262
Pop vote harris by 1.5 percent
Senate goes to dems 50 t0 50 with Walz being tiebreaker
House goes to dems plus 5
And magas time is over
winn dixie is offline   Quote
Reply



AMPReviews.net
Find Ladies
Hot Women

Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright © 2009 - 2016, ECCIE Worldwide, All Rights Reserved