The Election Games! What will the margin of victory be?

[1blackman1]

Penn and Mich will determine the winner.

[Tiny]

Trump can sweep Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Still without Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or the 2nd Congressional district in Nebraska, he loses.

How about some forecasts from board members in the center and left-of-center? Are you chicken? Bawk bawk bawk bawk bawk!

Well, I suspect SpeedRacer and adav8s28 will take a shot. Those two shrewd cats will probably wait until the last possible moment, like November 12, to try to get an edge.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Popular vote means nothing.
It's entirely electoral college vote.
Pennsylvania is the key dog in this fight. Maybe another state.

As far as actual winner for President yes, but strength Senate and Congress might come into play a little more with a higher percentage of popular vote. But that is not a sure thing either.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Trump can sweep Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Still without Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or the 2nd Congressional district in Nebraska, he loses.

How about some forecasts from board members in the center and left-of-center? Are you chicken? Bawk bawk bawk bawk bawk!

Well, I suspect SpeedRacer and adav8s28 will take a shot. Those two shrewd cats will probably wait until the last possible moment, like November 12, to try to get an edge.

@Tiny, I will make my prediction now one week before the election.

1. Harris wins with 272 Electoral College votes to Trumps 266
2. Harris wins popular vote by one percent
3. Senate I will give Democrats 51 to 49 win and regain control
4. House I think remains Republican by 5 seats.

[texassapper]

The OP is going to have to define what they mean by the margin of victory.

Do you mean on election night, three days later, or 10 days later?

[Unique_Carpenter]

two states.
Pennsy being one of those

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Trump can sweep Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Still without Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or the 2nd Congressional district in Nebraska, he loses.

How about some forecasts from board members in the center and left-of-center? Are you chicken? Bawk bawk bawk bawk bawk!

Well, I suspect SpeedRacer and adav8s28 will take a shot. Those two shrewd cats will probably wait until the last possible moment, like November 12, to try to get an edge.

lol. I've been ignoring the board for a while. There are some participants on this forum whose posts just turned me off. Not you, of course, who I find to be one of the more astute posters on this forum

Anyway. Anyone who has been following the polls would be led to believe that the the election will be thisclose. Polls underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020 and predicted a red wave in 2022 which did not happen. In 2024, many pollsters have adjusted their polling strategies with built-in algorithms to correct the bias. I have the gut feeling that the adjustments have pushed the needle too far in Trump's direction.

Harris wins the popular vote by 2-3%.

Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pa. and wins the electoral vote.

Republicans take control of the Senate by 51-49 or 52-48.

Democrats win back the House narrowly.

Trump scares the crap out of me. Without worries about reelection in 2028, he will try to move as much power into the office of the president to the detriment of the people of this country. I hope I am wrong if he wins.

BTW, I have voted and I voted for Harris obviously but down ballot I voted for more Republicans than Democrats.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by texassapper

The OP is going to have to define what they mean by the margin of victory.

Do you mean on election night, three days later, or 10 days later?

As soon as all the votes are counted. Unfortunately several states do not start counting mail-in votes until election day, making results delayed.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Penn and Mich will determine the winner.

The closeness of the polls in Michigan surprises me. Trump barely won in 2016 in Michigan (0.23%) and lost in 2020 by 2.8%. a rather large turnaround. I just don't see Harris losing in Michigan. Maybe Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, which were very close in 2020.

[winn dixie]

As I've stated elsewhere. Penn is the key for trumpf and he has to hang on to nc and Georgia. Trumpf loses
Trumpf loses pop vote by plus one percent
Senate is retained by dems
House goes to dems by 5 plus seats
Magas failure will be complete

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by winn dixie

As I've stated elsewhere. Penn is the key for trumpf and he has to hang on to nc and Georgia. Trumpf loses
Trumpf loses pop vote by plus one percent
Senate is retained by dems
House goes to dems by 5 plus seats
Magas failure will be complete

And the end of the United States as a Constitutional Republic.

[eyecu2]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

And the end of the United States as a Constitutional Republic.

Nahh, but perhaps a loss of the extreme right wing media of FOX , BREITBART & Newsmax.

I think it's gonna be close, but PA & MI and WI will fall narrowly to Harris. Ga will go to Trump w NC. Nobody will get over 290 EC votes

[Tiny]

Interesting strategy by adav8s28. In the electoral vote he's positioned himself for a close race, which everyone is predicting. Right now he'll win or tie if Trump prevails by 18 or less or if Harris wins by 10 or less. And in the Senate, he's going out on a limb predicting a Democratic victory. Well, that's the kind of courage that enabled him to win the COVID death guess game.

Speedracer, being the most avid poll watcher here, is the one to watch.

Here's how we stack up so far.

Electoral College

adav8s28: Harris by 6
Farmstud: Trump by 42
Tiny: Harris by 14

Popular Vote:

SpeedRacer: Harris by 2.5
adav8s28: Harris by 1
Farmstud: Trump by 0.5
Why Yes I Do: Trump by 51, baked
Tiny: Harris by 1

Senate

SpeedRacer: Repubs by 3
adav8s28: Dems by 2
Farmstud: Repubs by 4
Tiny: Repubs by 1

House

adav8s28: Repubs by 5
Farmstud: Repubs by 7.5
Tiny: Dems by 5

Observations

Winn Dixie hasn't entered the numbers game but predicts a Democratic Party sweep. And SpeedRacer looks for a narrow Democratic Party victory in the House.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

BTW, I have voted and I voted for Harris obviously but down ballot I voted for more Republicans than Democrats.

I voted for 5 Libertarians, 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Three of the Democrats were running for the State Court of Criminal Appeals and there were no Libertarians running in those races. I vote for the Dems figuring maybe they'll incarcerate fewer people than the Repubs. The 4th Democrat was running against a local state senator. The incumbent is corrupt and everyone knows he's corrupt but people vote for him anyway because he brings home the bacon.

I didn't vote for people running unopposed, all Republicans or unaffiliated, who I didn't know anything about. If I had, and if there hadn't been Libertarians on the ballot, I would have voted for a lot more Republicans than Democrats.

I voted for Cruz. I gave money to Cruz, even though I lost a lot of respect for him after he started kissing Trump's ass. I can't believe they're on good terms after what he said about his wife and father. Given I believe that Kamala's more likely to win the presidency, it's important for Republicans to win the Senate IMHO. That would be the best combination to hold down deficits and would provide some security that Kamala won't do away with the oil and gas industry, as she had planned if she'd won in 2020. Also the Democrats will probably weaken or possibly eliminate the filibuster if they win. That’s a very bad idea.

Originally Posted by texassapper

The OP is going to have to define what they mean by the margin of victory.

Do you mean on election night, three days later, or 10 days later?

On Monday, January 20, 2025.

[winn dixie]

Harris 276 trumpf 262
Pop vote harris by 1.5 percent
Senate goes to dems 50 t0 50 with Walz being tiebreaker
House goes to dems plus 5
And magas time is over