We've Flatten The Curve. It's Time For Texas To Move On.

[dilbert firestorm]

drink tonic water

[Missburger]

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavi...esday/2343473/


its rising the number of cases


youre weeks maybe a month away from really heating up the curve


stay home wait it out

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Missburger

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavi...esday/2343473/


its rising the number of cases


youre weeks maybe a month away from really heating up the curve


stay home wait it out

From your link, this is significant:

"County officials said the number of ICU hospitalizations from COVID-19 in the last week exceeded the peak week of ICU hospitalizations from influenza during the 2019-2020 season."

However, we still have the equipment needed:

Total beds: 2,868
Beds occupied: 1,542
Total ICU beds: 361
ICU beds occupied: 204
Total ventilators: 342
Ventilators in use: 139

On the other hand, a couple of old people dying is to be expected...of the 2 deaths, one old fucker was in his 80's...

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

From your link, this is significant:

"County officials said the number of ICU hospitalizations from COVID-19 in the last week exceeded the peak week of ICU hospitalizations from influenza during the 2019-2020 season."

However, we still have the equipment needed:

Total beds: 2,868
Beds occupied: 1,542
Total ICU beds: 361
ICU beds occupied: 204
Total ventilators: 342
Ventilators in use: 139

On the other hand, a couple of old people dying is to be expected...of the 2 deaths, one old fucker was in his 80's...

Article also says 59 Covid patients are in ICU and 42 Covid patients are using ventilators. Right now there are 138 ICU beds available and 203 ventilators available. So you you've got room for 138/59 = 2.3X increase in Covid patients in ICU and 4.8X increase on ventilation. Lots of excess capacity, right? Not necessarily. Looking at University of Washington IHME model for the entire state of Texas, they expect Covid patients in ICU and on ventilators to both increase by 6.7X between now and peak on May 3.

It could be a lot better or worse. They have a range of expected outcomes, inside a 95% uncertainty interval. Using the same analogy as described above, at the low end Dallas could barely squeak by on ICU beds and have lots of excess ventilators. At the high end it gets pretty hairy.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

Their base case for Texas Covid 19 patients -

ICU Beds needed April 2: 388
ICU Beds needed May 3: 2619

Ventilators needed April 2: 310
Ventilators needed May 3: 2096

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by Missburger

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavi...esday/2343473/


its rising the number of cases


youre weeks maybe a month away from really heating up the curve


stay home wait it out

That's what you said a month ago.

Originally Posted by friendly fred

From your link, this is significant:

"County officials said the number of ICU hospitalizations from COVID-19 in the last week exceeded the peak week of ICU hospitalizations from influenza during the 2019-2020 season."

However, we still have the equipment needed:

Total beds: 2,868
Beds occupied: 1,542
Total ICU beds: 361
ICU beds occupied: 204
Total ventilators: 342
Ventilators in use: 139

On the other hand, a couple of old people dying is to be expected...of the 2 deaths, one old fucker was in his 80's...

Thanks ff for trying to quell the panic. Seems likes its under control there. We have capacity, let's use it.

BTW, Tiny, I ran a model and we're all eventually dead.

[Missburger]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

From your link, this is significant:

"County officials said the number of ICU hospitalizations from COVID-19 in the last week exceeded the peak week of ICU hospitalizations from influenza during the 2019-2020 season."

However, we still have the equipment needed:

Total beds: 2,868
Beds occupied: 1,542
Total ICU beds: 361
ICU beds occupied: 204
Total ventilators: 342
Ventilators in use: 139

On the other hand, a couple of old people dying is to be expected...of the 2 deaths, one old fucker was in his 80's...

them old people keep dying you will be a blue state lol


just wait

[Missburger]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

That's what you said a month ago.


Thanks ff for trying to quell the panic. Seems likes its under control there. We have capacity, let's use it.

BTW, Tiny, I ran a model and we're all eventually dead.

i did not say that, numbers are rising.

the thread is titled weve flattened the curve in texas

which is not t he case the curve is going up and has been.


youre in for a bumpy ride

stay home

[Jacuzzme]

Originally Posted by Missburger

them old people keep dying you will be a blue state lol


just wait

The old people in my stratosphere are hardcore democrats. There was a time when the democrats believed in the American citizen and worker, now they’re a mish-mash of America hating special interests. The ww2 crowd believe their party of the working man still exists, they lost their mental faculties right around the time when democrats went batshit crazy.

[friendly fred]

Update:

29Mar2020 positive tests 2,552 negative tests 23,208 deaths 34 total tests 25,760
30Mar2020 positive tests 2,877 negative tests 33,003 deaths 38 total tests 35,880
31Mar2020 positive tests 3,266 negative tests 42,992 deaths 41 total tests 42992
01Apr2020 positive tests 3,997 negative tests 43,860 deaths 58 total tests 47857
02Apr2020 positive tests 4,669 negative tests 46,010 deaths 70 total tests 50679
02Apr2020 positive tests 5,330 negative tests 50,434 deaths 90 total tests 55764

Positive cases each day:

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential
(3997-3266)/3266 = 22.4% increase - definitely worse
(4669-3997)/3997 = 16.8% increase - not exponential
(5330-4669)/4669 = 14.2% increase - 2 straight days of a lower increase

Death rate in Texas for COVID-19 still very low.

Since 25 March Daily deaths 6, 5, 4, 7, 4, 3, 17, 12, 20

Worse day for deaths but not as bad as New York at this stage.

We seem closer to the California rate, which hasn't gotten out of hand, at least yet.

Still want more data but clearly we are not in trouble yet!

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

That's what you said a month ago.
....

Originally Posted by Missburger

i did not say that, numbers are rising.
...

From your post March 11, 2010
https://eccie.net/showpost.php?p=1061986966&postcount=2

Originally Posted by Missburger

... get ready for a rocky few months

Welcome to ignore liar.

[HedonistForever]

Lot of discussion on whether New York failed to procure the 16,000 ventilators a 2015 task force suggested would be needed. The liberal press of course is trying to say that it isn't true but with a caveat that I'm sure somebody regrets saying.

The state did not plan to increase its stockpile because it anticipated that in the event of a severe crisis, there would be shortage of trained staff to operate them and demand would outweigh any emergency stockpile. The report said the state had to balance the likely ventilator shortage with the need for adequate funding for current and ongoing health care expenses.

OH! MY! Now imagine Donald Trump saying that and the response it would get from the left. "WE didn't buy enough ventilators because we wouldn't have the number of "trained staff" to operate them. I can hear the screaming now Impeach him!



Now apply that logic to Sanders Medicare for all proposal. Would there be enough "trained staff" to handle all the new cases surely to show up at hospitals and if not, would that be a reason not to pass Medicare for all?



Then there is the discussion of death panels which always puts the left on defense.


Well, New York has now told it's EMT personnel that if you can't revive a heart attack victim in the field, don't bother to take them to the hospital. In other words, let them die. This is now the new normal. The old rule said after making an attempt in the field, the patient would be immediately transported to a hospital. But now the hospital is over flowing with COVID-19 patients so heart attack victims go to the bottom of the list for further treatment.


We have to make choices, we have always had to make choices, they are now just getting more stark and in the years to come, they will get more stark.

[dilbert firestorm]

just question here, how many machines can a trained staff handle?

[oeb11]

Trained by deBlasio and Cuomo - none - any attempts will play as the Keystone Kops!


Fidel has an answer - any heart attack victims will be treated in the field with element Pb - to ensure adequate resources for DeBlasio , Cuomo, and their nomenklatura!

[HoeHummer]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Trained by deBlasio and Cuomo - none - any attempts will play as the Keystone Kops!


Fidel has an answer - any heart attack victims will be treated in the field with element Pb - to ensure adequate resources for DeBlasio , Cuomo, and their nomenklatura!

You’re a lying piece of shits, oebsy.

How are you still posting?

[Revenant]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Take a look about halfway down at the graph of "Deaths due to the coronavirus in Texas by date." If that's not exponential growth I'll let one of Solemate62's TS girlfriends give it to me up the ass. And to be clear, I'd rather die than get butt fucked by a chic with a dick, or anyone with a dick for that matter.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/cor...s-15142609.php

I can't see the graph or the title "Deaths due to the Coronavirus in Texas by date".


Are you saying there is or is not exponential growth? It seems like Houston doubled its cases in less than a week. Dallas has over900 and Houston has over 1000. We are trailing NYC by only about 2 weeks.