We've Flatten The Curve. It's Time For Texas To Move On.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

His engineering degree is in Sanitation Engineering. I had an argument on another board where the "opponent" finally admitted that if CV deaths are rising "exponentially" the exponent is closer to 1.2 rather than a minimum of 2. Based on his logic the factor was really 1.02 but I had wasted enough time with him.

Those homo loving left wingers want people to die so they can say they were right!

[gnadfly]

IMO, tracking the number of CV deaths is the only true measurement. Again, this isn't polio.

Since people may be asymptomatic, may not want to be tested, tests may be inaccurate, tests may need several days for results, "trending" "new" cases on a day by day basis has overstated meaning.

We won't know the true numbers, at least in this country, until after this is over. Which could be years because we didn't let it go through the population initially.

I just hope some of these submarine boomers have contingency plans.

[oeb11]

i am hopeful - the anecdotal reports of hydroxychloroquine is encouraging - but not yet definitive.

Still - it can be used - preferentially in patients with serious illness.
harvested antibodies - may be helpful - if so, need to be ramped up to produce mono-clonal antibodies for general use.

If these two treatments come online - it may be a great help in mortality rate - not for infectivity , however.



Hey - where are the Fascist DPST's with all the answers - their only answer - "Impeach Trump"?????

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

...
Bad day for deaths. The number tomorrow is important.

I still think the hospitalization rate would be a better variable, compared to hospitalizations this time last year.

...

I've heard that the number of deaths in many states in the past few weeks are very comparable to the same time last year - some even less.

I also read recently that the number of suicides in Tennessee exceeded the number of CV virus deaths. Which got me thinking how many of these suicide deaths were caused by CV panic or economic hardship related to CV?

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

I've heard that the number of deaths in many states in the past few weeks are very comparable to the same time last year - some even less.

I also read recently that the number of suicides in Tennessee exceeded the number of CV virus deaths. Which got me thinking how many of these suicide deaths were caused by CV panic or economic hardship related to CV?

Likely quite a few. If a person can't provide for their family then they can grow despondent.

Alternatively, fuckers drink, get ^%&*(*, and eat shitty food to ease the pain. Diseases of despair - all because the fucking liberals wanted to get rid of Trump by tanking the economy - motherfuckers.

The death rate should definitely be compared to prior years. If it is 1% higher - so what? Let's get the country going again! We are all going to die eventually and if we get weak enough the fucking commies might attack us anyway.

[Kinkster90210]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Hey Mr. F^%$&^ engineer with an advanced degrees (ooohhhh) - how is this exponential here in Texas?

29Mar2020 positive tests 2,552 negative tests 23,208 deaths 34 total tests 25,760
30Mar2020 positive tests 2,877 negative tests 33,003 deaths 38 total tests 35,880
31Mar2020 positive tests 3,266 negative tests 42,992 deaths 41 total tests 42992

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential

We are beating this thing in Texas! Death rate in Texas for COVID-19 still very low and not growing.

Since 25 March Daily deaths 6, 5, 4, 7, 4, 3

I think a reasonable person could conclude, from the deaths, that it isn't a bad trend. As for the increase in cases, well, we have only been testing patients with obvious symptoms, which I believe you people call a biased sample. Until we randomly test a representative sample of the population, we really can't know if the case rate is increasing or not, can we?

I think the hospitalization rate would be a better variable, compared to hospitalizations this time last year.

I'm willing to concede we need two more weeks of data to know what happened to people infected in the last 2 weeks, but it doesn't look bad so far.

Douchebag. Learn to read. I said the US is rising exponentially.

I didn't say TX was rising exponentially yet, only that it is heading in the same direction as NY - UPWARD. Just like your own statistics indicate.

The sample size in TX is still too small. And we don't have widespread testing to indicate how many actual infections we have. That will take another couple of weeks. But every single time a large number of tests is performed, the case rate has increased. If Texas did not increase, it would be the first state not to do so. So, no, a reasonable person would NOT conclude that Texas is doing alright. A reasonable person would conclude that our turn is next and we better take social distancing seriously.

[Kinkster90210]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

29Mar2020 positive tests 2,552 negative tests 23,208 deaths 34 total tests 25,760
30Mar2020 positive tests 2,877 negative tests 33,003 deaths 38 total tests 35,880
31Mar2020 positive tests 3,266 negative tests 42,992 deaths 41 total tests 42992
01Apr2020 positive tests 3,997 negative tests 43,860 deaths 58 total tests 47857

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential
(3997-3266)/3266 = 22.4% increase - definitely worse

Death rate in Texas for COVID-19 still very low but possibly growing.

Since 25 March Daily deaths 6, 5, 4, 7, 4, 3, 17

Bad day for deaths. The number tomorrow is important.

I still think the hospitalization rate would be a better variable, compared to hospitalizations this time last year.

I'm willing to concede we need two more weeks of data to know what happened to people infected in the last 2 weeks, but it doesn't look bad so far.

Back tracking already?

That was fast.

[HoeHummer]

How many yanks died today from the Orange Fever, 900? More?

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Kinkster90210

Back tracking already?

That was fast.

It is called accurate reporting, douchebag!

Also, I was always talking about Texas so try to keep up, you idiot.

Additionally, you did not address my assertion about the number of hospitalizations being a significant data point, either.

Also, the tests are only being run on people with fevers, biasing the sampling all to hell...

Fucking inflexible minded engineer...

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by HoeHummer

How many yanks died today from the Orange Fever, 900? More?

Why do you care?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Kinkster90210

Douchebag. Learn to read. I said the US is rising exponentially.

I didn't say TX was rising exponentially yet, only that it is heading in the same direction as NY - UPWARD. Just like your own statistics indicate.

The sample size in TX is still too small. And we don't have widespread testing to indicate how many actual infections we have. That will take another couple of weeks. But every single time a large number of tests is performed, the case rate has increased. If Texas did not increase, it would be the first state not to do so. So, no, a reasonable person would NOT conclude that Texas is doing alright. A reasonable person would conclude that our turn is next and we better take social distancing seriously.

Take a look about halfway down at the graph of "Deaths due to the coronavirus in Texas by date." If that's not exponential growth I'll let one of Solemate62's TS girlfriends give it to me up the ass. And to be clear, I'd rather die than get butt fucked by a chic with a dick, or anyone with a dick for that matter.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/cor...s-15142609.php

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by oeb11

i am hopeful...may be a great help in mortality rate - not for infectivity , however....

I am hopeful as well. While it's early in the battle, truer data is finally being collected. However, the combo-cocktail you mentioned is also reported to have a prophylactic benefit. That either means it can help prevent infection from occurring (virus from entering the cell walls) or it could mean that this industry, right here, could come roaring back or maybe Forest Gump was right:

It could be a bit of both.

[oeb11]

I do not feel the chloroquine drugs are suitable for "prophylaxis" or prevention of acquiring infection - that would require distribution to the entire population - an impossible task.

The drugs also have cardiac and retinal complications - particularly with long term use.



IMHO- best used for hospitalized patients with serious infections.

Not for asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients.

[friendly fred]

Update:

29Mar2020 positive tests 2,552 negative tests 23,208 deaths 34 total tests 25,760
30Mar2020 positive tests 2,877 negative tests 33,003 deaths 38 total tests 35,880
31Mar2020 positive tests 3,266 negative tests 42,992 deaths 41 total tests 42992
01Apr2020 positive tests 3,997 negative tests 43,860 deaths 58 total tests 47857
02Apr2020 positive tests 4,669 negative tests 46,010 deaths 70 total tests 50679

Positive cases each day:

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential
(3997-3266)/3266 = 22.4% increase - definitely worse
(4669-3997)/3997 = 16.8% increase - not exponential

Death rate in Texas for COVID-19 still very low.
Since 25 March Daily deaths 6, 5, 4, 7, 4, 3, 17, 12

Deaths went down! Good sign

Still want more data but clearly we are not in trouble yet!

[oeb11]

In DFW there are plenty of available hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators.