The 2020 Presidential Election

[Austin Ellen]

I mentioned this in 2015 and I'll say it again - Secret Trump voters. The type that says" I will not vote for Trump" then goes into the voting booth and says "fuck it - I'm voting for that guy but I'm not telling anyone"

Brave yourselves - they are everywhere.


Now I wonder how do pollsters figure those folks in?

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Trump may win in 2020 but I guarantee you it won't be by a landslide, no matter how one defines "landslide".

I don't think you take into account the fact that millions and millions of voters will vote against Trump simply because he is Trump. That is the major reason why he has never had an approval rating above 50% and continues to have the lowest approval rating of any POTUS since Truman at this point of time in office. Of course, Donald will point solely to the Rasmussen poll which has him at 50% approval, without acknowledging that the Rasmussen poll is the least accurate polling company in the country.

Trump is reportedly in denial about his campaign’s bleak internal polling

https://www.vox.com/2019/6/11/186610...polling-denial

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

I mentioned this in 2015 and I'll say it again - Secret Trump voters. The type that says" I will not vote for Trump" then goes into the voting booth and says "fuck it - I'm voting for that guy but I'm not telling anyone"

Brave yourselves - they are everywhere.


Now I wonder how do pollsters figure those folks in?

Now that is a very good question. My guess is that they have corrected their formulas to some extent.

The 2018 midterms were a referendum on Trump's first 2 years in office, even thought Trump himself was on the ballot. The polling companies, other than Rasmussen, called the elections almost perfectly. Huge gains for Democrats in the House and minor gains for Republicans in the Senate.

In one recent poll, 60% of those polled believe Trump will win a 2nd term. Very possible.

I will guarantee you that Trump, news watcher that he is, and the Trump re-election team, are very aware of the polling that puts Trump behind. Of course, Trump calls it "Fake News". But it is also said that a recent internal poll by Trump's team showed him losing in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

[Austin Ellen]

Indeed, that's what the polls say. I do believe Wisconsin went to toss up due to the election of a conservative judge in April. The Dems wanted a majority In the State Supreme Court for redistricting purposes. It didn't happen which shows just how things can go when the conservative base is fired up. I can tell you - as of today - the conservative base is not fired up..... yet.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Now that is a very good question. My guess is that they have corrected their formulas to some extent.

The 2018 midterms were a referendum on Trump's first 2 years in office, even thought Trump himself was on the ballot. The polling companies, other than Rasmussen, called the elections almost perfectly. Huge gains for Democrats in the House and minor gains for Republicans in the Senate.

In one recent poll, 60% of those polled believe Trump will win a 2nd term. Very possible.

I will guarantee you that Trump, news watcher that he is, and the Trump re-election team, are very aware of the polling that puts Trump behind. Of course, Trump calls it "Fake News". But it is also said that a recent internal poll by Trump's team showed him losing in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

[hunglowandbig]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

I mentioned this in 2015 and I'll say it again - Secret Trump voters. The type that says" I will not vote for Trump" then goes into the voting booth and says "fuck it - I'm voting for that guy but I'm not telling anyone"

Brave yourselves - they are everywhere.


Now I wonder how do pollsters figure those folks in?

They can’t... but people vote on there pocket book ‘ it the economy stupid ‘and really only about three or four states thaT really elects the president look at the job lost in Michigan , Pennsylvania and Ohio and all the $30 billion bail out he gave to the farmers ! Trump won because Hillary was a bad candidate. Hell the polls was correct she won the the popular vote that all the polls count . Not

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Indeed, that's what the polls say. I do believe Wisconsin went to toss up due to the election of a conservative judge in April. The Dems wanted a majority In the State Supreme Court for redistricting purposes. It didn't happen which shows just how things can go when the conservative base is fired up. I can tell you - as of today - the conservative base is not fired up..... yet.

The election in 2020 will be won by whoever motivates their voters to turn out. Trump's loyal base will always be there for him. In the 2018 midterms, Democrats turned out like never before in a midterm election and almost set a record for turnout. 49.3%. And Democrats won the House vote by 8.6 million votes.

[Austin Ellen]

Yes, whatever motivates the voter will make them turn out for the vote. ****Sigh**** I have to back track my prediction on Mayor Pete. I saw him on NBC last night. They are having a segment on the Dem candidates "big idea" for America.
Mayor's Pete "big idea" needs alot of work. Maybe give him another 8 years. In the meantime - I nominate this guy for the dems!

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

The election in 2020 will be won by whoever motivates their voters to turn out. Trump's loyal base will always be there for him. In the 2018 midterms, Democrats turned out like never before in a midterm election and almost set a record for turnout. 49.3%. And Democrats won the House vote by 8.6 million votes.

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

I mentioned this in 2015 and I'll say it again - Secret Trump voters. The type that says" I will not vote for Trump" then goes into the voting booth and says "fuck it - I'm voting for that guy but I'm not telling anyone"

Brave yourselves - they are everywhere.


Now I wonder how do pollsters figure those folks in?

Must be the same people that pack Whispers inbox saying they support the stuff he post. Do they ever chime in? Are they ever seen? Do they really do anything?

Yeah. They are everywhere. But you gotta believe in them. Because you never see any action from them.

They spin on and on. Sorta like that Huckabee lady. Boy, was she caught lying when Mueller came asking about all those FBI people telling her they were glad Comey was gone. Speaking of which, where is she?

[Austin Ellen]

For all the folks who said Trump would not be going for a second term - he's announcing tomorrow that he will be entering the race. Of course, I knew that but there were a couple of people on here who said he would not last.
Here's the thing - Trump knows what he is doing and I love it!!!!
So anyone want to predict who they think will be the dem pick will be?

[Cap'n Crunch]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

For all the folks who said Trump would not be going for a second term - he's announcing tomorrow that he will be entering the race.

"Praise the Lord!!! Oh Donald, you are our savior!!!!"

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

So anyone want to predict who they think will be the dem pick will be?

Bill de Blasio wins the Democratic nominee with over 98% of the vote. He picks the guy with the hard to pronounce last name as his running mate.

Happy now?

[Cap'n Crunch]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

So anyone want to predict who they think will be the dem pick will be?

Actually, I predict it will be someone you don't want to be the nominee.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

For all the folks who said Trump would not be going for a second term - he's announcing tomorrow that he will be entering the race. Of course, I knew that but there were a couple of people on here who said he would not last.
Here's the thing - Trump knows what he is doing and I love it!!!!
So anyone want to predict who they think will be the dem pick will be?

There were 1 or 2 who speculated that Trump might get tired of being rightfully accused of lying/mis-statement of facts and decide not to run for a 2nd term. The man is a narcissist of the highest level (self-proclaimed "genius") and he couldn't pass up what he sees as an opportunity to prove people wrong again.

Trump may know what he is doing but the majority of the people in this country do not agree with him.

[Austin Ellen]

Capt,

I don't have a dog in the Dem choice of candidate. I've already got my big dog ready to rumble in this race. I'm just curious as to whom people will pick as their choice to win the Presidency in 2020. If it's Biden - great. I think he will flame out but who knows. Warren is coming up but she's a left wing loon so we'll see how that pans out.
I liked Mayor Pete but his big idea was to strengthen democracy. Like really?
Cory Booker - I can't see it happening. But again - who knows.
Then there are the 18 or 19 others that are running so there is a wide choice. I think the only Dem not running for President is Hillary and I'm not sure she won't jump in.
It's a very exciting time now and I'm glad to be a part of it.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Crunch

Actually, I predict it will be someone you don't want to be the nominee.

[Precious_b]

I wouldn't know if Fearless Leader is running. As multiple people here know, and one is in denial, what he says can't be trusted. So, I don't put any value on what he says.

And since a WH press conference is getting rarer than sighting a Blue Moon, we have no official press statement.

But wait, where is Huckabee at? Oh. It doesn't matter. She is a documented liar, multiple times, as stated on the Mueller Report.

Well, I guess i'll never know if he is running. And still don't care about the contenders.

[Austin Ellen]

And all of the President's before him told the truth and never,ever misspoke in public or private? Do you really believe that?

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

There were 1 or 2 who speculated that Trump might get tired of being rightfully accused of lying/mis-statement of facts and decide not to run for a 2nd term. The man is a narcissist of the highest level (self-proclaimed "genius") and he couldn't pass up what he sees as an opportunity to prove people wrong again.

Trump may know what he is doing but the majority of the people in this country do not agree with him.

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

And all of the President's before him told the truth and never,ever misspoke in public or private? Do you really believe that?

Nobody has to the extent that Politifact states The Big Cheeto does.