IHME COVID-19 Model

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51 actual 31 deaths - another guess bites the dust
April 14th 56 actual 46 deaths - not a bad guess (along with 868 new infections)
April 15th 62 actual 29 deaths - public flogging for this guess!(963 new cases)
April 16th 67 actual 35 deaths - they are wrong again (916 new cases)
April 17th 73 actual 27 deaths - they really suck on that guess (889 new cases)
April 18th 79 actual 24 deaths - anyone else think they should be flogged? (663 new cases)
April 19th 86 actual 18 deaths (spotty Sunday reporting or pandemic in decline?) (535 new cases)
April 20th 92 actual 22 deaths (they suck and should be flogged again!) (738 new cases)
April 21st 98 actual 26 deaths (updated) (do those guys suck at their guesses or what?) (873 new cases - also updated)
April 22nd 104 actual 18 deaths (horrible tragedy - just like they all predicted?) (875 new cases)
April 23rd 110 actual 32 deaths (stupid fucks) (862 new cases)
April 24th 116 actual 30 deaths (flog those idiots) (967 new cases out of 20,269 tests!)
April 25th 122 actual 25 deaths (pathetically wrong) (858 new cases)
April 26th 128 actual 15 deaths (way off again - idiots) (666 new cases)
April 27th 133 actual 27 deaths (they blew it again) (874 new cases)
April 28th 138 actual 42 deaths (awful projection) (883 new cases)over 14K tests
April 29th 143 actual 50 deaths (very poor projection) (1033 new cases)over 15K tests
April 30th 147 actual 34 deaths (whip them?) (1142 new cases)over 20K tests overnight - a record
May 1st 150 actual 31 deaths (flog them?) (1293 new cases)over 28,800 tests (results) overnight - a record
May 2nd 154 actual 20 deaths (they suck) (1026 new cases)
May 3rd 156 actual 17 deaths (typical Monday drop?) (784 new cases)
May 4th 158 actual 22 deaths (one day til "peak"?) (1037 new cases)
May 5th 160 actual 42 deaths (way the fuck off) (1053 new cases)


Those fuckers really sucked at their projections!

[dilbert firestorm]

.
+----------------------------------------------------+
|              2020 TEXAS CORONA VIRUS DATA          |
+==========+===========+========+===========+========+
|          |           |        |   Total   |  Total |
|          | Projected | Deaths | Projected | Deaths |
+==========+===========+========+===========+========+
| 04/04/20 |        22 |     22 |        22 |     22 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/05/20 |        20 |     13 |        42 |     35 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/06/20 |        22 |     14 |        64 |     49 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/07/20 |        26 |     23 |        90 |     72 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/08/20 |        29 |     22 |       119 |     94 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/09/20 |        33 |     27 |       152 |    121 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/10/20 |        37 |     28 |       189 |    149 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/11/20 |        41 |     17 |       230 |    166 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/12/20 |        46 |     16 |       276 |    182 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/13/20 |        51 |     31 |       327 |    213 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/14/20 |        56 |     46 |       383 |    259 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/15/20 |        62 |     29 |       445 |    288 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/16/20 |        67 |     35 |       512 |    323 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/17/20 |        73 |     27 |       585 |    350 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/18/20 |        79 |     24 |       664 |    374 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/19/20 |        86 |     18 |       750 |    392 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/20/20 |        92 |     22 |       842 |    414 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/21/20 |        98 |     26 |       940 |    440 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/22/20 |       104 |     18 |     1,044 |    458 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/23/20 |       110 |     32 |     1,154 |    490 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/24/20 |       116 |     30 |     1,270 |    520 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/25/20 |       122 |     25 |     1,392 |    545 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/26/20 |       128 |     15 |     1,520 |    560 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/27/20 |       133 |     27 |     1,653 |    587 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/28/20 |       138 |     42 |     1,791 |    629 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/29/20 |       143 |     50 |     1,934 |    679 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/30/20 |       147 |     34 |     2,081 |    713 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 05/01/20 |       150 |     31 |     2,231 |    744 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 05/02/20 |       154 |     20 |     2,385 |    764 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 05/03/20 |       156 |     17 |     2,541 |    781 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 05/04/20 |       158 |     22 |     2,699 |    803 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 05/05/20 |       160 |     42 |     2,859 |    845 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
|          |     2,859 |    845 |           |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
.

26.4 deaths per day average