I disagree that DNS poisoning was an unimportant threat.
DNS cache poisoning is not the only possible DNS attack. If, for instance, your ISP is compromised, you could easily be fed false DNS data. It's also possible that someone could hijack the domain registration itself. That's happened in a number of cases. The use of SSL authentication with a separate certificate authority provides an independent security check. Of course, someone could compromise a certificate authority, too.
I always get an alert if the SSL certificate is self issued. I can choose to accept or ignore it.
If the SSL certificate does not match the URL, I get an alert. Yes, if I DON'T look at the URL, a lookalike site may fool me.
I do not believe that you can count on packets not taking the same path. They may take a different path, they may not.
Let's face it though. If I send most people a link that says go to
https://google.com, they won't notice that it actually goes to yahoo.com and it doesn't use SSL.
SSL/https adds significant security. It doesn't make you 100% secure. Face it, if you're running Windows, your ass is flapping in the breeze anyway.