The Election Games! What will the margin of victory be?

[Tiny]

OK, I guess this should be the final update, as results will be coming in in a matter of hours. If anyone else cares to contribute though maybe we can give him an honorable mention if he makes the best guess.

Electoral College

Eyecu2: Harris by 10
Eccieuser: Harris by 15
The Waco Kid: Trump by 86
Texas Contrarian: Trump by 36
Dali Lama: Trump by 86
Winn Dixie: Harris by 14
adav8s28: Harris by 6
Farmstud: Trump by 42
Tiny: Harris by 14

Popular Vote:

ttalinky: Harris by 5.3 percent (assuming 150 million total votes)
Eyecu2: Harris by 4.7 (assuming 150 million total votes)
Texas Contrarian: Harris by 2
Winn Dixie: Harris by 1.5
SpeedRacer: Harris by 2.5
adav8s28: Harris by 1
Farmstud: Trump by 0.5
Why Yes I Do: Trump by 51, baked
Tiny: Harris by 1

Senate

Eyecu2: Repubs by 1
Texas Contrarian: Repubs by 4
Winn Dixie: Tie
SpeedRacer: Repubs by 3
adav8s28: Dems by 2
Farmstud: Repubs by 4
Tiny: Repubs by 1

House

Dems by 4
Texas Contrarian: Dems by 4
Winn Dixie: Dems by 5
adav8s28: Repubs by 5
Farmstud: Repubs by 7.5
Tiny: Dems by 5

Observations

SpeedRacer looks for a narrow Democratic Party victory in the House. Salty believes Trump will win. Eyecu2 is predicting victories for Casey, Cruz and Gallego in the Senate. Ttalinky believes Harris will win by more than 300 electoral votes. A couple of competitors gave ranges. For example SpeedRacer believes Repubs will win the Senate by 52 to 48 or 51 to 49. For those I used the midpoint of the estimates.

Consensus Probabilities from the Punters

And here are consensus probabilities based on betting odds from Stossel's web site as of this moment:

President: Trump 57.9% / Harris 41.6%
Senate Control: Repubs 82.3% / Dems 17.7%
House Control: Dems 52.0% / Repubs 47.8%

Democrats have given up some ground in betting odds since the last update.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by Tiny

OK, I guess this should be the final update, as results will be coming in in a matter of hours. If anyone else cares to contribute though maybe we can give him an honorable mention if he makes the best guess.

Electoral College

Eyecu2: Harris by 10
Eccieuser: Harris by 15
The Waco Kid: Trump by 86
Texas Contrarian: Trump by 36
Dali Lama: Trump by 86
Winn Dixie: Harris by 14
adav8s28: Harris by 6
Farmstud: Trump by 42
Tiny: Harris by 14

The Price is Right rules:

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

The Price is Right rules:

Shrewd move!