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The Political Forum Discuss anything related to politics in this forum. World politics, US Politics, State and Local.

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Old Today, 06:07 AM   #16
1blackman1
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When has Rasmussen been wrong?
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Old Today, 08:26 AM   #17
SpeedRacerXXX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid View Post
there's nothing "biased" about Rasmussen and Lichtman will be wrong. for the second time.
Rasmussen is considered a lean-right poll and has not been included in 538's polling aggregate due to that bias.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...n-538-polling/

Yesterday a poll in Iowa had Harris +3. I don't believe it.

The most accurate polls over time come from the NY Times/Sienna.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/u...iena-poll.html
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Old Today, 11:14 AM   #18
adav8s28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX View Post
Rasmussen is considered a lean-right poll and has not been included in 538's polling aggregate due to that bias.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...n-538-polling/

Yesterday a poll in Iowa had Harris +3. I don't believe it.

The most accurate polls over time come from the NY Times/Sienna.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/u...iena-poll.html
+1

Good post Speedracer. From the NYTimes link:

Both candidates have multiple pathways available to capture the 270 Electoral College votes required to claim victory, assuming that polls are not dramatically underestimating the support for one or the other. In such a close race, even a small systemic polling error could tip the contest decisively in either direction.

But there are signs that late deciders are breaking for Ms. Harris: Among the 8 percent of voters who said they had only recently decided on their vote, she wins the group by 55 percent to 44 percent. (With Election Day nearing, 11 percent of voters remained undecided or persuadable, down from 16 percent about a month ago.)

The polling comes as more than 70 million Americans have already voted, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.

Roughly 40 percent of those surveyed by the Times/Siena poll across the seven states said they had voted. Ms. Harris wins those voters by a margin of eight percentage points, the polls found. Mr. Trump has an edge among voters who say they are highly likely to vote but have not yet cast a ballot.

Totally different from what Rasmussen predicts.
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Old Today, 11:15 AM   #19
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Latest from ABC/538, DJT for the win:

https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1853430560716185738
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Old Today, 12:06 PM   #20
Yssup Rider
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Why don’t you post the ABC link rather than the spin on X?
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Old Today, 12:27 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yssup Rider View Post
Why don’t you post the ABC link rather than the spin on X?
Here you go..
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Odds are from the top of the page and
battleground graphic is from the middle of the page
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Old Today, 04:26 PM   #22
Yssup Rider
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Yeah, that indicates a dead heat. Maybe that’s why the spin on X was so exciting for you.

Make sure you get out and vote early!
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