OPINION: Think support for Trump is dying down? His New York rally told a different story.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN

Slight? Either you didn't check out the links or you're in severe denial. If there was a poll that tossed out the high and low, Bloomberg wouldn't even be mentioned.


Being a conservative, I prefer to check out the Trafalgar polls, but realize they do have an actual slight tilt to the right.

Trafalgar is much more to the right than Bloomberg is to the left. Every poll should be taken somewhat lightly.

As I said before, what worries me most about the polls is that in 2020, although the polls were correct on a Biden victory, the polls overstated Biden's margin of victory nationwide and in most states. If the polls in 2024 are as inaccurate as in 2020 and are overestimating Harris, she is in trouble. I am hoping that the pollsters have corrected their sampling errors.

[DEAR_JOHN]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Trafalgar is much more to the right than Bloomberg is to the left. Every poll should be taken somewhat lightly.

In Nevada, Bloomberg has harris at +7 with another outlier is +3 and a majority of polls have harris or Trump at +1.
In Arizone, Bloomberg has harris favored while every other polls picks Trump.


So yes, I stick with my comments about Bloomberg having shitty polls. And it's about the numbers, not about who wins or loses.

2024 Nevada: Trump vs. Harris

AmGreatness/TIPP9/23 - 9/25736 LV3.75049Harris+1

Atlas Intel9/20 - 9/25858 LV3.05148Harris+3 <2 point outlier

Bloomberg9/19 - 9/25516 LV4.05245Harris+7 <6 point outlier

Rasmussen Reports9/19 - 9/22738 LV3.04849Trump+1

The Hill/Emerson9/15 - 9/18895 LV3.24848Tie

Noble Predictive Insights9/9 - 9/16692 LV3.74847Harris+1

Trafalgar Group (R)9/11 - 9/131079 LV2.94544Harris+1

InsiderAdvantage8/29 - 8/31800 LV3.54748Trump+1


****************************** ****************************** **********************
2024 Arizona: Trump vs. Harris

USA Today/Suffolk9/21 - 9/24500 LV4.44842Trump+6

Atlas Intel9/20 - 9/25946 LV3.05049Trump+1

FOX News9/20 - 9/24764 LV3.55148Trump+3

Bloomberg9/19 - 9/25926 LV3.04750Harris+3 <only poll to pick harris when all others pick Trump.

Marist9/19 - 9/241264 LV3.85049Trump+1

Rasmussen Reports9/19 - 9/221071 LV3.04947Trump+2

NY Times/Siena9/17 - 9/21713 LV—5045Trump+5

The Hill/Emerson9/15 - 9/18868 LV3.34948Trump+1