Are we headed for a world wide meltdown?

[bambino]

https://www.icis.com/chemicals-and-t...security-2030/

Professor Poofter has been collecting SS for 5yrs already.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by bambino

https://www.icis.com/chemicals-and-t...security-2030/

Professor Poofter has been collecting SS for 5yrs already.

Who is this Professor Poofter you so lovingly continually speak of?

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by WTF

Please ignore bambino.

Are you kidding? How can yinz even think about ignoring bambino?

I mean, don't you think he must be among the most amusing QAnon cult members in the land?

If you don't believe that, check this post:

https://eccie.net/showpost.php?p=106...postcount=1142

Comedic gold! My favorite part is the news that Bill Clinton was forced by the US military to sign bizarre, secret legislation that no one knows about even to this day -- and while the Secret Service was forced at gunpoint to stand down!!

.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Saw this on MarketWatch today: (AAPL was at $137.97 and dropping at time I posted this)

The chart

Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Markets, is keeping an eye on one big name for Thursday — Apple AAPL, -5.64% — and advises investors do the same.
“If this stock breaks support at $139, it’s probably lights out for the entire stock market. That would create a lower low for Apple, a breach of support, and set up a drop to around $123. I don’t see how the entire market doesn’t follow Apple lower at that point,” said Kramer.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Are you kidding? How can yinz even think about ignoring bambino?

I mean, don't you think he must be among the most amusing QAnon cult members in the land?

If you don't believe that, check this post:

https://eccie.net/showpost.php?p=106...postcount=1142

Comedic gold! My favorite part is the news that Bill Clinton was forced by the US military to sign bizarre, secret legislation that no one knows about even to this day -- and while the Secret Service was forced at gunpoint to stand down!!

.

bambino has so many rabbit holes to try and take one down!



Did you see the clip of the real rabbit that ran in front of the dogs chasing the mechanical rabbit?

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by bambino

Oh, I got your attention. Hold your breath for an hour Captain. You’re a fraud. I know it, you know it. You’re too stupid to know when you’re being played. But, obviously, your feelings are butt hurt. So tell us again how this country is going to dig itself out of over 100 trillion of debt? Bankruptcy is the only way.

Cool it, bam. There are plenty of frauds on this board, but nobody puts CM in that category. Has he pretended to be someone or something he's not? I don't think so. So save your ball-busting for someone who deserves it. Don't pick fights with our fellow fiscal conservatives.

And don't forget the words of the late Walter Wriston... "countries don't go bankrupt, they just become temporarily insolvent."

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Are you kidding? How can yinz even think about ignoring bambino?

I mean, don't you think he must be among the most amusing QAnon cult members in the land?

If you don't believe that, check this post:

https://eccie.net/showpost.php?p=106...postcount=1142

Comedic gold! My favorite part is the news that Bill Clinton was forced by the US military to sign bizarre, secret legislation that no one knows about even to this day -- and while the Secret Service was forced at gunpoint to stand down!!

And let's not forget what bambino admitted in a moment of candor:

Originally Posted by bambino

...the Q stuff I post... is meant to get a rise out of libtards.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by bambino

So tell us again how this country is going to dig itself out of over 100 trillion of debt?

Originally Posted by Tiny

Don't exaggerate. It's only 20 or 30 trillion dollars Bambino.

You're both right!

Am I the only guy here who understands the difference between debt and debt + contingent liabilities?

In the words of former Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen... "You take a trillion here and a trillion there, and pretty soon we're talking about REAL MONEY!"

Oh wait... he said Billions, not Trillions, didn't he? Anyone know what comes after trillion? A thousand trillions is called what?

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Cool it, bam. There are plenty of frauds on this board, but nobody puts CM in that category...

Hey, why kill the fun? Just when the big guy was getting nicely warmed up! LOL

But, yeah, gotta admit to doubts that he really believes all that Q shit. But never was sure ... I understand a lot of people do! (Remember the small crowd that formed last summer at Dealey Plaza in Dallas, waiting for JFK Jr. to return?)

Originally Posted by lustylad

... Oh wait... he said Billions, not Trillions, didn't he? Anyone know what comes after trillion? A thousand trillions is called what?

Whoa! Hold on there! Trying to get your fellow Pittsburgher all excited? He might figure out that it starts with a "Q!"

.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Saw this on MarketWatch today: (AAPL was at $137.97 and dropping at time I posted this)

The chart

Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Markets, is keeping an eye on one big name for Thursday — Apple AAPL, -5.64% — and advises investors do the same.
“If this stock breaks support at $139, it’s probably lights out for the entire stock market. That would create a lower low for Apple, a breach of support, and set up a drop to around $123. I don’t see how the entire market doesn’t follow Apple lower at that point,” said Kramer.

My take is that this guy approaches the issue from an angle different from mine (largely a technical analysis view rather than my fundamental analysis viewpoints).

Nonetheless, I think he's right that AAPL is more richly priced that warranted and I've believed for some time that its salad days are mostly in the past. The stock is so widely held and widely followed that it's likely a better market bellwether than almost any other issue. (And still has a $2+ trillion market cap!)

So my view is that AAPL is overvalued and more likely than not to decline more than the S&P in a possible recession-induced bear market.

.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by WTF

The years between 1981 and 2020 were very special years for the world economy because interest rates were generally falling...

With an ever-lower cost of debt, the economy has had a hidden tailwind pushing it long between 1981 to 2020.

So you're telling us we've been in a favorable, declining rate environment for 40 fucking years?

Gee... is there ANYONE on this board who was unaware of that?? What a startling revelation!

So let's see... who was the President who kicked off this 4-decade-long favorable economic tailwind trend? Anyone know who was in the White House way back in 1981?

Oh yes, I remember now!

This is a great moment to quote WTF, who is always so eager to give Republicans the credit they deserve:

Originally Posted by WTF

Reagan started us on this...

Originally Posted by WTF

I like Reagan.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

...Whoa! Hold on there! Trying to get your fellow Pittsburgher all excited? He might figure out that it starts with a "Q!"....

Quadrillion. Might as well be Gorillion though, because at that point it ain't real anymore. It's surreal and you need a pillow for it, surrealistically speaking anyway. Don't believe me - Go ask Alice. I think she'll know.

BTW: AAPL tried to claw back up towards 138 before the bell today. The little fella is a fighter. In fact, he's still trying in after hours even. You go my little yellow friend. Keep fighting.

[Texas Contrarian]

Earlier in this thread (April 10) I posted this allusion to Milton Friedman's musing about the Fed sometimes acting like a drunk in the shower:

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Cullen Roche (the "pragcap guy") often has a good take on issues. By the way, he's written some good stuff over the years on things such as how the fractional reserve system works, money supply issues, etc. (and they're written in such fashion that investment fund clients who aren't finance professionals can easily understand them).

https://www.pragcap.com/the-fed-is-a...-policy-error/

Here he suggests that the economy is "drunk."

Key excerpt:

Unfortunately, the subjective nature of discretionary interest rate policy has left them doing what they typically do – looking at 12 month trailing data in a reactive manner and then responding after the fact when it becomes clear that the economy is drunk. The Fed now wants to swipe a punch bowl that they should have been watering down long ago. The problem now is they’re on the verge of swapping the punch bowl with sleeping pills as parts of the economy look increasingly fragile and the Fed is at risk of tightening into an economic slowdown.

(End of excerpt.)

This reminds me of a statement the late Milton Friedman made in an interview during the last year or two of his life.

He said the FOMC often acted like a drunk in the shower, reacting and then overreacting to the perceived water temperature. When the water felt too cold at first, he'd turn it most of the way toward "hot," startle himself, turn it down too much, and keep repeating the cycle.

We saw stark evidence of that in 2018-19 when the Fed started a tightening cycle and then scrambled to reverse course, as by midyear 2019 it became apparent that the economy was markedly slowing down.

During that cycle, the effective Fed funds rate peaked at about 2.4%.

Commentators often speak of the fabled "soft landing," where policymakers are able to remove the froth from bubbles or ease inflationary pressures without tanking the economy.

But sticking the landing without serious damage this time will surely require piloting skills comparable to those demonstrated by Captain Sullenberger back in 2009.

Does it strike you that any of these people remotely possess the skill or cool competence "Sully" showed that day?

.

In a similar vein, this appeared on the libertarian site AIER just this week:

https://www.aier.org/article/a-drink...netary-policy/

.

[bambino]

Captain sure is gullible. Sorta like WTF and YR.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Hey, why kill the fun? Just when the big guy was getting nicely warmed up! LOL.

Huh? Who's the BIG GUY? I hope you're not talking about Hunter's pappy again?

Is he looking for another 10 percent? If so, please tell him I'm completely tapped out!