Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced he is allowing the stay home order in Texas to expire on Thursday, April 30.

[billw1032]

We need to ask how many deaths are being caused by this lockdown. The original reason for it, at least in part, was to avoid overwhelming the hospital system as happened in Wuhan (and which should be a good indicator that the number of cases there was severely under reported).

But that never happened here. Now we have reports that some hospitals are 90% empty. Hospital staff are being sent home because there's nothing to do. Even lab staff are being sent home because doctors are not ordering routine tests. People are skipping important surgery because its classified as "elective", meanwhile surgeons are idle and beds go empty. Biopsy's and cancer treatments are being skipped or postponed. Diabetes and heart disease are not being monitored and treated. Is this really the outcome we want?

All of this based on modeling that turned out to predict nothing. The IHME model out of University of Washington, which the authorities seem to rely on, has been grossly wrong in the pessimistic direction from the start. It's only semi-accurate now because they have updated it as the data came out. It's been revised so much that it now predicts nothing, it just follows the data as a lagging indicator.

The problem with the doctors running the show is that they are focused only on COVID-19 cases and deaths. They aren't looking at the overall health care picture and the overall health (in all respects) of the entire country. If they can reduce the COVID-19 cases or deaths by a few percent then it's worth any draconian measures, never mind the collateral damage. People are starting to show that they won't put up with this much more. As a people, we aren't inclined to follow instructions blindly. Take a look at the beaches in Orange County or the Capital in Michigan. You're only going to see more of that in the days to come.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by billw1032

We need to ask how many deaths are being caused by this lockdown. The original reason for it, at least in part, was to avoid overwhelming the hospital system as happened in Wuhan (and which should be a good indicator that the number of cases there was severely under reported).

But that never happened here. Now we have reports that some hospitals are 90% empty. Hospital staff are being sent home because there's nothing to do. Even lab staff are being sent home because doctors are not ordering routine tests. People are skipping important surgery because its classified as "elective", meanwhile surgeons are idle and beds go empty. Biopsy's and cancer treatments are being skipped or postponed. Diabetes and heart disease are not being monitored and treated. Is this really the outcome we want?

All of this based on modeling that turned out to predict nothing. The IHME model out of University of Washington, which the authorities seem to rely on, has been grossly wrong in the pessimistic direction from the start. It's only semi-accurate now because they have updated it as the data came out. It's been revised so much that it now predicts nothing, it just follows the data as a lagging indicator.

The problem with the doctors running the show is that they are focused only on COVID-19 cases and deaths. They aren't looking at the overall health care picture and the overall health (in all respects) of the entire country. If they can reduce the COVID-19 cases or deaths by a few percent then it's worth any draconian measures, never mind the collateral damage. People are starting to show that they won't put up with this much more. As a people, we aren't inclined to follow instructions blindly. Take a look at the beaches in Orange County or the Capital in Michigan. You're only going to see more of that in the days to come.

Amen brother!

[Billogoods]

Quarantine! Cuz Prohibition and the War on Drugs worked so well!

When they let folks out, it's gonna be stupid crazy. I know that, if I was 20-something, I'd be knockin' up every gal that'd stand still for a minute, bareback all the way, right after I finished my umpteenth shot, with beer chaser, on the nightly pub crawl. You'd find me, passed out, naked, on the beach.

Yup. Yup. Yup. Deprive the masses and chaos ensues. That Second Wave the doomsayers keep talking about is gonna start in Deep Ellum and on Padre Island.

But, hey! The Dems will finally be able to cancel a bunch o' student loans, cuz dead folks don't pay. And, none of them have employee benefits. They're all unemployed or P/T. So, they can finally extend national healthcare.

[ptherapy]

The last few days Dallas had higher daily death totals. I hope they waited long enough but unfortunately with the incubation for this virus we will not find out until the end of May.

Hospitals in NYC and a few other cities, were overwhelmed which is why the country was locked down. Medical professionals did interviews explaining most patients are in the ICU for days not for multiple weeks which is the norm with COVID-19. DFW saw an increase in cases but it was curbed by the lock down. Hopefully the virus has worked its way through enough, but based on the facts presented from county representatives this week, I do not think so, unless people take it seriously.

If people want to go back to business as usual starting this weekend because they think this was overplayed, I recommend watching the videos of some in their 20's, 30's, 40's, 50's who do not have underlying health issues who were in the hospital for weeks trying to recover, and some of them are still impacted. There are reports of loss of lung capacity and endurance. Many of those who recovered had the same ho-hum thinking and they recommend against it.

I will stay inside other than necessary business, and then I will wear a mask and practice social distancing. I hope by the end of May our DFW hospitals will not be sending out videos like the ones from Italy, Spain, and yes NYC weeks ago begging people to stay home to stem the tide.

Are naysayers convinced those videos were fake, that we were being punk'd?

Hospitals are not designed for a highly contagious pandemic but to treat a % of the population at any given time. That is why China was building hospitals on the fly and why a NYC hospital was relocating patients outside to a large park and to the military medical ship that was deployed to NYC.

I hope it has passed and things return to normal but the ramp up for this virus has been a juggernaut where it dials in the tsunami setting after 3 or 4 weeks everywhere it has hit so far, and it did not hit DFW, not like it did NYC because of the advance warning they provided. We will find out the end of May.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by ptherapy

I hope it has passed and things return to normal but the ramp up for this virus has been a juggernaut where it dials in the tsunami setting after 3 or 4 weeks everywhere it has hit so far, and it did not hit DFW, not like it did NYC because of the advance warning they provided. We will find out the end of May.

my thinking as well.. this "soft opening" will tell us nothing, because the numbers are going up due to more testing, so we won't know if this opening caused any of that. the deaths are still going up, which concerns me most. no other side of the curve in DFW. we need a lot more tests to know the percent of people who can expect to die and/or become sick from the virus.

my sense is that we can "re-open" once we know the death rate is very low (which many believe at this point).. that is knowable by the end of this month, I think, if testing really grows.

ultimately, we can't wait for a vaccine, so herd immunity is the only way, IMO.. might as well do it faster, and not string it out and let the economy suffer longer. focus efforts on Nursing Homes and the Aged, and let the rest of the population live.

[Prolongus]

We could be in for anarchy if people can’t put food on the table.

[Aoi]

Originally Posted by ptherapy

The last few days Dallas had higher daily death totals. I hope they waited long enough but unfortunately with the incubation for this virus we will not find out until the end of May.

Most of whom were old. If you're too old to be going out, then stay in. Nobody will mind.

Hospitals in NYC and a few other cities, were overwhelmed which is why the country was locked down. Medical professionals did interviews explaining most patients are in the ICU for days not for multiple weeks which is the norm with COVID-19. DFW saw an increase in cases but it was curbed by the lock down. Hopefully the virus has worked its way through enough, but based on the facts presented from county representatives this week, I do not think so, unless people take it seriously.

A lockdown accomplishes nothing in the treatment of a pandemic. All it does is prolong the eventual infection. If someone were to get infected today because they went out after a lockdown ended, does it matter if they get infected 6 months later? No.

If people want to go back to business as usual starting this weekend because they think this was overplayed, I recommend watching the videos of some in their 20's, 30's, 40's, 50's who do not have underlying health issues who were in the hospital for weeks trying to recover, and some of them are still impacted.

The younger people may have had underlying issues they were unaware of. And this is grossly being overplayed by the media.

There are reports of loss of lung capacity and endurance. Many of those who recovered had the same ho-hum thinking and they recommend against it.

And they probably didn't realize they had conditions OR they were just unlucky.

I will stay inside other than necessary business, and then I will wear a mask and practice social distancing. I hope by the end of May our DFW hospitals will not be sending out videos like the ones from Italy, Spain, and yes NYC weeks ago begging people to stay home to stem the tide.

You do understand that Dallas actually is on the lower end of the spectrum in terms of infected, right? Even places like NYC, which is the epicenter of the outbreak, aren't short of any equipment. People can be safe and still go about their lives. Why is it that people think that just because people want to end the lockdown, that they're just going to lick every doorknob they come across?

Are naysayers convinced those videos were fake, that we were being punk'd?

I refer you to the video of CBS using footage of an Italian hospital being overloaded and saying it was NY. Or the multitude of times every "expert" have been on the wrong on the record.

Hospitals are not designed for a highly contagious pandemic but to treat a % of the population at any given time. That is why China was building hospitals on the fly and why a NYC hospital was relocating patients outside to a large park and to the military medical ship that was deployed to NYC.

Curve. Flattened. Problem solved

I hope it has passed and things return to normal but the ramp up for this virus has been a juggernaut where it dials in the tsunami setting after 3 or 4 weeks everywhere it has hit so far, and it did not hit DFW, not like it did NYC because of the advance warning they provided. We will find out the end of May.

People are going to get infected. Few will get sick. Even fewer will unfortunately pass away.

Covid 19 isn't exactly exclusive in that it kills people.

If you're too afraid of your own shadow, stay inside. But stop with the outdated fear tactics.

[Ralph Fults]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

my thinking as well.. this "soft opening" will tell us nothing, because the numbers are going up due to more testing, so we won't know if this opening caused any of that. the deaths are still going up, which concerns me most. no other side of the curve in DFW. we need a lot more tests to know the percent of people who can expect to die and/or become sick from the virus.

my sense is that we can "re-open" once we know the death rate is very low (which many believe at this point).. that is knowable by the end of this month, I think, if testing really grows.

ultimately, we can't wait for a vaccine, so herd immunity is the only way, IMO.. might as well do it faster, and not string it out and let the economy suffer longer. focus efforts on Nursing Homes and the Aged, and let the rest of the population live.

Looks like Obama was right all along about those Death Panels. But it took a Republican like Gov Abbott to implement it.

[ptherapy]

The lockdown prevented a catastrophe because of the highly infectious nature of COVID-19. Before the NYC lockdown hospitals were being overwhelmed with patients. Medical personnel were shipped in from other areas to help. if virus was in full swing around the country those personnel would have been needed where they live so no cavalry in NYC, and no one could have loaned out ventilators because they would have needed them. The death rate would have climbed as they had more people needing ventilators than they had ventilators on hand.

As it was, hospitals did something they did not want to do. They cancelled highly profitable surgeries so it was no hoax.

Everyone has to make their own decision but you really like the idea that anyone young who ends up in the ICU with COVID-19 most likely had underlying medical conditions they were not aware of. That is a big stretch. In another sentence, you said they were unlucky?

Sounds like young people can get seriously sick with this illness, but going into a crowded area while a virus pandemic is underway and ending up in the ICU is not what most would consider unlucky.

I think if we had stronger leadership at the federal level things could have gone quite differently without such impact to the economy but that ship sailed when US leaders refused to prepare and instead were still making light of the virus as late as 3rd week in Mar.

I am not afraid of my own shadow. I was just out running errands. Yes, I wore a mask. Only a few who were out were wearing one but I prefer not to rely on a good roll of the dice when there are things I can do to be more cautious. Unfortunately, many will hear that the city is open and consider everything back to normal.

It does not have to be either / or. people can get out and take precautions but many will choose not to, so we wait until the end of May. I hope I am wrong, that the virus has passed, and there is no 2nd wave like we had with the 1918 Spanish Flu.

[Aoi]

[QUOTE=ptherapy;1062047087]The lockdown prevented a catastrophe because of the highly infectious nature of COVID-19. Before the NYC lockdown hospitals were being overwhelmed with patients. Medical personnel were shipped in from other areas to help. if virus was in full swing around the country those personnel would have been needed where they live so no cavalry in NYC, and no one could have loaned out ventilators because they would have needed them. The death rate would have climbed as they had more people needing ventilators than they had ventilators on hand.
[quote]

Cuomo asked for ventilators. Trump delivered them. Turns out, Cuomo was full of shit and they didn't really need that many after all. Now doctors are being laid off because, turns out, not many people are needing to be in the hospital that long.

As it was, hospitals did something they did not want to do. They cancelled highly profitable surgeries so it was no hoax.

They could have tested the patient, see they were negative, the do the operation. So, basically, the economy pussied out.

Everyone has to make their own decision but you really like the idea that anyone young who ends up in the ICU with COVID-19 most likely had underlying medical conditions they were not aware of.

Yes. It is incredibly possible that young people may have had underlying conditions that they were not aware of. They may have had weak immune systems they were unaware of. They may have been fat fucks. Or maybe they were just pussies who get sick easily.

That is a big stretch. In another sentence, you said they were unlucky?

It's not a big stretch for young people to be less healthy than they think they are. Like, seriously, a lot of older people don't do complete physicals - how much do you think younger people won't?

Sounds like young people can get seriously sick with this illness, but going into a crowded area while a virus pandemic is underway and ending up in the ICU is not what most would consider unlucky.

Yes. They can also get the flu. Or a cold. People get sick. And a lot of people die. You act like Covid 19 is this exclusive thing.

I think if we had stronger leadership at the federal level things could have gone quite differently without such impact to the economy but that ship sailed when US leaders refused to prepare and instead were still making light of the virus as late as 3rd week in Mar.

Back in January, Trump issued a travel ban from China and Europe. People got butthurt and called him racist. Then LOCAL leadership like Pelosi, Cuomo, Newsom all said shit like "Come on in, it's no big deal" Turns out, it kinda was. Trump even declared it a National Emergency.

You want to know who else thought it wasn't a big deal? Dr fucking Fauci. The guy whose nuts ever fear monger is hugging. Same fucker said it wasn't a big deal. You want to know who else underestimated this virus? THE FUCKING MEDIA.

Anyone can say "If only we had stronger leadership" Hindsight is 20/20. Considering every expert was saying it wasn't a big deal and leadership down to the local level was putting it off, you really want to make this a federal thing?

Unfortunately, many will hear that the city is open and consider everything back to normal.

No, they won't.

It does not have to be either / or. people can get out and take precautions but many will choose not to, so we wait until the end of May. I hope I am wrong, that the virus has passed, and there is no 2nd wave like we had with the 1918 Spanish Flu.

There will be a second wave. People will get sick. And sadly, people will die. This is inevitable.

Covid 19 isn't some passing storm. This thing is here to stay. You'll probably get it. You'll probably be just fine. The numbers are actually on your side.

[BLM69]

The reality of things is that people will do what they want, you guys can discuss the potential outcome and speculations but most people won't stop having fun

Just look at the providers that have been offering services weekly since all this started, I love their reasoning lol. Until it hits home, then people will worry and be regretful, same thing can be said when first jumping in the hobby.

[billw1032]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

ultimately, we can't wait for a vaccine, so herd immunity is the only way, IMO.. might as well do it faster, and not string it out and let the economy suffer longer. focus efforts on Nursing Homes and the Aged, and let the rest of the population live.

Exactly!

Originally Posted by Aoi

There will be a second wave. People will get sick. And sadly, people will die. This is inevitable.

Yes!

It doesn't matter how long you keep up this lockdown the virus is still going to be out there, and when you end the lockdown it will spread again. Remember, the current theory is that it started with a few people in a fish market, or possibly just one infected researcher in a Virology Lab, and from there spread around the world. It's probably impossible to wipe it out 100% this way, and if there are even a few cases left out there it will start all over again. The only way it will die out is either a vaccine or herd immunity. If you think about it, a vaccine is a kind of man-made herd immunity. There's really no other way.

The risk for young, healthy people is low, but not zero. There will always be a few cases in this population that you can point to. It's unfortunate and sad, but there's really nothing that can be done about it. There won't be a vaccine anytime soon, so the best thing that can be done is to focus on those who are known to be at higher risk and encourage them to shelter and take precautions. This is especially true of situations like nursing homes or similar situation, and also any in the younger population who are known to have compromising conditions. Then let everyone else go about their business until the herd immunity develops. The longer we keep up this lockdown all we are really doing is postponing the inevitable at the cost of additional destruction of the economy.

The person I've heard explain this the best is Dr. David Katz, a highly credentialed expert and founding directeor of Yale University’s Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center. You can look up his New York Times Op-Ed on his website or the Times site, or look up his TV interview. Since then, a number of credible Doctors have joined in with this view.

I see that Quest Diagnostics now has the antibody test, and if you are wondering if you've had it you can make an appointment and have it done for $119. I'm thinking about doing that, seeing as how I was actually in Wuhan the first part of November. Since I've been there and know people there, this is very close to me and I pay attention and follow it closely. The first reported case was either December 8 or December 1, depending on what report you believe, but if theories are correct it may have been circulating before that. I'm probably in the expected high-risk group, but it's also remotely possible that I've had it without knowing and am one of those contributing to the eventual herd immunity!

[Aoi]

What's gold is WHO is now supporting Sweden's style of separating the high risk people and letting people go about their way like normal.

[mtabsw]

Originally Posted by billw1032

...

I see that Quest Diagnostics now has the antibody test, and if you are wondering if you've had it you can make an appointment and have it done for $119. I'm thinking about doing that, seeing as how I was actually in Wuhan the first part of November. ...
I'm probably in the expected high-risk group, but it's also remotely possible that I've had it without knowing and am one of those contributing to the eventual herd immunity!

If you're into public service, anyone who tests positive for antibodies should investigate donating their plasma. There are some instances already of improvements in the critically ill following a transfusion of plasma.

If you're not into public service, the going rate is $400 per draw, for vanilla common blood types. I'm guessing they'll pay more for AB+ and even more if you have the antibodies.

In either case you can get plasma pulled out of you every two weeks.

[billw1032]

Originally Posted by mtabsw

If you're into public service, anyone who tests positive for antibodies should investigate donating their plasma. There are some instances already of improvements in the critically ill following a transfusion of plasma.

If you're not into public service, the going rate is $400 per draw, for vanilla common blood types. I'm guessing they'll pay more for AB+ and even more if you have the antibodies.

In either case you can get plasma pulled out of you every two weeks.

That's a very good point, and I'll look into it. I'm O- and I used to donate blood all the time until I got prostate cancer. That's been cleared for over 9 years now, though, so I think that's no longer a problem. I think I heard somewhere that there may be an age limit, but I'm not sure about that or what it might be so I need to check. First thing, though, is I probably should go get the test.