We've Flatten The Curve. It's Time For Texas To Move On.

[Lucas McCain]

Originally Posted by Revenant

Wow, you are one dumb fuck. Your own data indicates exponential growth.

He is. I have many of these idiots on ignore for a reason. I can only lose so much of my IQ from reading their dumb shit. They'll stick with their own dumb ass logic and you'll just be wasting your time trying to correct them with common sense and facts. There are a lot of hard headed sensitive dipshits in here who are really dumb and are too fucking stupid to realize it. They'll stick with their retarded narrative no matter what anyone posts to correct their flawed logic.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Update:

29Mar2020 positive tests 2,552 negative tests 23,208 deaths 34 total tests 25,760
30Mar2020 positive tests 2,877 negative tests 33,003 deaths 38 total tests 35,880
31Mar2020 positive tests 3,266 negative tests 42,992 deaths 41 total tests 42992
01Apr2020 positive tests 3,997 negative tests 43,860 deaths 58 total tests 47857
02Apr2020 positive tests 4,669 negative tests 46,010 deaths 70 total tests 50679
02Apr2020 positive tests 5,330 negative tests 50,434 deaths 90 total tests 55764
02Apr2020 positive tests 6,110 negative tests 57,641 deaths 105 total tests 63751

9 out of 10 cases test negative among symptomatic persons getting limited resources. Just think how low it would be if everyone were tested.

Positive cases each day:

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential
(3997-3266)/3266 = 22.4% increase - definitely worse
(4669-3997)/3997 = 16.8% increase - not exponential
(5330-4669)/4669 = 14.2% increase - 2 straight days of a lower increase
(6110-5330)/5330 = 14.6% increase - flattened yet?

Death rate in Texas for COVID-19 still very low and actually went down in number overnight - hopefully this continues to be very low.

Since 25 March Daily deaths 6, 5, 4, 7, 4, 3, 17, 12, 20, 15

Very interesting, thanks for the update. The University of Washington IHME model has Texas maxing out at 161 deaths per day on May 7. If that happens it's going to put a strain on some hospitals while others will be fine. Based on their confidence interval, the number could be a lot larger or smaller though.

Texas averages about 520 deaths per day, so a peak of 161 wouldn't be huge in the scheme of things. What is potentially huge is the stress on the health care system in certain areas, if you have something develop like New York. Point taken from your and others posts -- hopefully Texas, like Washington and California, isn't likely to get hit to the extent of New York, given the way we live and commute. I'm still worried some pockets may develop in Texas where we're going to be severely stressed, like what's happening in Baton Rouge and New Orleans right now.

[Chung Tran]

thing is, Texas was ahead of almost everyone in adopting the social distancing. assuming we don't fuck it up, Texas should come out on the other side much better than most areas.

but to suggest that weeks ago we flattened the curve is absurd. the curve had not even started yet.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Very interesting, thanks for the update. The University of Washington IHME model has Texas maxing out at 161 deaths per day on May 7. If that happens it's going to put a strain on some hospitals while others will be fine. Based on their confidence interval, the number could be a lot larger or smaller though.

Texas averages about 520 deaths per day, so a peak of 161 wouldn't be huge in the scheme of things. What is potentially huge is the stress on the health care system in certain areas, if you have something develop like New York. Point taken from your and others posts -- hopefully Texas, like Washington and California, isn't likely to get hit to the extent of New York, given the way we live and commute. I'm still worried some pockets may develop in Texas where we're going to be severely stressed, like what's happening in Baton Rouge and New Orleans right now.

Agreed - The University of Washington IHME model has so far overestimated the effect on Texas. They project anywhere between 44-326 on May 06.

Pretty wide range, and they base it on the disaster in NYC, which is an almost natural incubator for the disease. Texas is less susceptible owing to a lower concentration of people.

I can see Dallas and Houston being the worst hit areas, but the suburbs have a natural defense via spacing being the norm.

I believe I will be vindicated and we will be at the lower end of the range.

[Revenant]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Fuck you - I'm talking about the rate of increase each day!

I KNOW you are talking about the rate of increase each day. That is the point I was making about your stupidity.

You are trying to make a projection based on TWO data points - yesterday and today. NO ONE does that except YOU.

You are looking at two consecutive days and coming to the wrong conclusion - that we are not experiencing exponential growth.

You just cannot admit you were wrong, can you?

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by Revenant

You are looking at two consecutive days and coming to the wrong conclusion - that we are not experiencing exponential growth.

You just cannot admit you were wrong, can you?

to be fair, the "experts" have speculated that virus-related deaths double every 2-4 days.. that is their definition of exponential.. fred's chart suggests Texas is not anywhere close to that.

[Revenant]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

but to suggest that weeks ago we flattened the curve is absurd. the curve had not even started yet.

Precisely.

A week ago, maybe earlier, Gnadfly was declaring this thing was over in Texas before it had barely gotten started.

If we followed his advice and did nothing, we would be catching up with NY real fast.

The sad part is that if Texans exercise proper social distancing and keep non-essential businesses closed and TX avoids the growth rates of NY, then Gnadfly and the other deniers will say "See I told you! We didn't need to shut everything down!"

They will cite the success of the measures as proof they weren't needed.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by Revenant

Precisely.

A week ago, maybe earlier, Gnadfly was declaring this thing was over in Texas before it had barely gotten started.

If we followed his advice and did nothing, we would be catching up with NY real fast.

The sad part is that if Texans exercise proper social distancing and keep non-essential businesses closed and TX avoids the growth rates of NY, then Gnadfly and the other deniers will say "See I told you! We didn't need to shut everything down!"

They will cite the success of the measures as proof they weren't needed.

completely agree

[Revenant]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

to be fair, the "experts" have speculated that virus-related deaths double every 2-4 days.. that is their definition of exponential.. fred's chart suggests Texas is not anywhere close to that.

I had not heard 2-4 days, I heard more like 4-7 days. A doubling about every 4-5 days seems to be about what I am seeing.

But that probably varies a lot by location. In NYC, the doubling was probably close to 2 in the early days before they started taking social distancing measures and sheltering in place. Meanwhile, small towns in New Mexico might be closer to 10 days. But it averages out over time.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by Revenant

I had not heard 2-4 days, I heard more like 4-7 days. A doubling about every 4-5 days seems to be about what I am seeing.

But that probably varies a lot by location. In NYC, the doubling was probably close to 2 in the early days before they started taking social distancing measures and sheltering in place. Meanwhile, small towns in New Mexico might be closer to 10 days. But it averages out over time.

regardless of whose definition, places like New Mexico better not be thinking this is a New York kind of problem. I bet the death rate among those who catch the virus would be much greater among New Mexicans.

and by the way, I saw a news piece about life in Juarez, Mexico yesterday, they were crowding around like they never heard of Corona. I'm going to be chanting "build the wall" loud and often if Mexico doesn't get it together soon!

[bambino]

Coronavirus has brought out the frauds in full force on ECCIE. Everyone’s an expert. I forget what asshat said we will wear masks everyday like they do in Asian countries. I’ll bet that ain’t happening after this is over.

[Revenant]

Originally Posted by bambino

Coronavirus has brought out the frauds in full force on ECCIE. Everyone’s an expert. I forget what asshat said we will wear masks everyday like they do in Asian countries. I’ll bet that ain’t happening after this is over.

Why AFTER? Are you conceding it will happen during this pandemic?

I assume you are conceding because the US government - meaning Trump and Fauci - are now conceding that maybe - juuuust maybe - wearing a mask does give a bit of protection. And every bit helps.

At the start of the epidemic, it was important that the limited supply of masks we had be reserved for medical professionals. So the experts HAD to emphasize that the masks were unnecessary for a paralegal or a sanitation worker to use. So they downplayed the protection offered by masks for people who were not coughing and sneezing.

But NEXT time, this country will have huge stockpiles of respirator masks and protective clothing and ventilators. Because we always learn after the fact.

And the average citizen isn't going to listen to government anymore. People will have several boxes of latex gloves and N95 masks stashed at home in the future. And when there is another outbreak somewhere in the world, you will see Americans walking the streets wearing them.

I often wondered in years past why I saw so many Asians - in person or in pictures - wearing masks in airports or on planes - even in the US. I thought they were just hypochondriacs.

But, in reality, they had past experience in China or elsewhere in Asia with SARS, H1N1, and various bird flus and swine flus to know that you are most likely to catch something when you are packed into airplanes or airport lounges. So they took proactive measures - both to avoid catching a flu or spreading one if they might be sick themselves.

Going forward, you will see Americans doing the same thing far more often. People learn from harsh experiences.

[Chung Tran]

Revenant, good post, but Bambino, a.k.a., Peggy Sue (I like that one ) has no use for your wisdom. he is here, like many, to attack others, not provide any knowledge or truth about anything.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Revenant

Why AFTER? Are you conceding it will happen during this pandemic?

I assume you are conceding because the US government - meaning Trump and Fauci - are now conceding that maybe - juuuust maybe - wearing a mask does give a bit of protection. And every bit helps.

At the start of the epidemic, it was important that the limited supply of masks we had be reserved for medical professionals. So the experts HAD to emphasize that the masks were unnecessary for a paralegal or a sanitation worker to use. So they downplayed the protection offered by masks for people who were not coughing and sneezing.

But NEXT time, this country will have huge stockpiles of respirator masks and protective clothing and ventilators. Because we always learn after the fact.

And the average citizen isn't going to listen to government anymore. People will have several boxes of latex gloves and N95 masks stashed at home in the future. And when there is another outbreak somewhere in the world, you will see Americans walking the streets wearing them.

I often wondered in years past why I saw so many Asians - in person or in pictures - wearing masks in airports or on planes - even in the US. I thought they were just hypochondriacs.

But, in reality, they had past experience in China or elsewhere in Asia with SARS, H1N1, and various bird flus and swine flus to know that you are most likely to catch something when you are packed into airplanes or airport lounges. So they took proactive measures - both to avoid catching a flu or spreading one if they might be sick themselves.

Going forward, you will see Americans doing the same thing far more often. People learn from harsh experiences.

I dunno, I give it 50/50 or maybe less that we will actually be prepared depending on when the next Pandemic comes. Hell, stockpiles/etc. got decimated during the Obama tenure and nothing was replaced by either Obama or Trump.

Tragedies, Pandemics, etc. are soon forgotten for expediency in recovery, costs, etc.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Revenant

I KNOW you are talking about the rate of increase each day. That is the point I was making about your stupidity.

You are trying to make a projection based on TWO data points - yesterday and today. NO ONE does that except YOU.

You are looking at two consecutive days and coming to the wrong conclusion - that we are not experiencing exponential growth.

You just cannot admit you were wrong, can you?

Sequential rate of increase, over 5 or 6 days - the average rate of increase is roughly the same, 5 to 6 data points - why don't you admit you made a mistake?

Plus, we have natural distancing here in Texas relative to the NYC people living on top of each other.

Plus, Governor Abbott pushed the social distancing and we have done it now for over two weeks and at an enormous cost, but that has slowed the spread as well. I would have done it differently but I'm just a nobody like you and that faggot Lucas McCain (not the real Lucas McCain, but the homo on this board who is illegally using the copyrighted name and likeness) so no one cares what my suggestion would have been.