How to position for the post-corona economy

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by Tex9401

I think the shutdowns, and indoor dining will go longer than two weeks.

they have to.. at least through April, I think.. bare minimum. that's if the data reverses by then. new hot spots are popping up all over, I don't think we have really got serious yet.

[gnadfly]

I agree that this is going to go through April, at least. That the next round of unemployment numbers are going to be devastating. The effects on state budgets (not just TX) are going to be devastating too. No state's budget can take 20% unemployment "instantaneously."

I'm 80% cash approximately. I'd be in more cash but got in trouble with roundtrips. Made some money on the bounces (and lost) but I'm holding off until at least the next UE numbers and after the next earnings season (late this April) to buy. I expect more swings, more layoffs, more business closings, more foreclosures, etc.

I wish I could be more positive. IMO, it doesn't matter much if they found a corona cure tomorrow, the damage is done. The good news is I think the number of US deaths have been grossly overestimated.

BTW, CT. The company I worked for set the spot price of gas at 4:30am every weekday to wholesalers. I know because if it was not out by 6:00am due to technical issues I got my ass chewed out. My guess the Taco Bell price is set at most, weekly.

[Chung Tran]

valuations are still relatively high, even on a TRAILING earnings basis. February saw the highest valuations ever, roughly twice the long-term average. we have dropped barely 25% in prices, with horrid numbers coming. these small business loans already look like a disaster, and the stimulus checks are all over the map, regarding who gets them and when. by the time it is sorted out, unemployment will be huge, evictions large, small businesses gone and never seen again.

I picked up one stock yesterday, but I'm not biting on any "longs" again, until this market drops another 20%