We've Flatten The Curve. It's Time For Texas To Move On.

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

12 today, or a 140% increase in one day.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03...ds-more-tests/

quit trying to call the bottom, i.e., the flattening. if the great masses would utilize social distancing for 2-3 weeks, this would be behind us.. not much to ask, yet so many feel so put out. bunch of Babies..

Lame. Did you really think you had a mathematical gotcha?
Why don't you stop being a little bitch, little bitch?

[bambino]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

Lame. Did you really think you had a mathematical gotcha?
Why don't you stop being a little bitch, little bitch?

Transter is too big to be a monkey and too small to be a man.

[Missburger]

trump just set a record for any president unemployment claims in one week

orange man gonna be off the rails today lol

[HoeHummer]

Originally Posted by bambino

Transter is too big to be a monkey and too small to be a man.

Yous, on the other hands, are too big to be a man and too smalls to be a planet.

Be sure to wash your fucking hands after doing that dance, Peggy Sue!

[bambino]

Originally Posted by HoeHummer

Yous, on the other hands, are too big to be a man and too smalls to be a planet.

Be sure to wash your fucking hands after doing that dance, Peggy Sue!

Are you and your chubby chaser friends still holding Slash Day? Is the theme “elbows deep? You chubby chasing pig.

[oeb11]

Quote:
Originally Posted by oeb11
i agree that an infection rate of 1% of the US population is not reasonable - more likely over 50% total infection rate based on the transmissibility of the virus.

Many of these cases are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic - and that cohort decreases the case fatality rate significantly.



I think we are going about this wrong - our response to shut down all but "essential services" leaves people circulating to transmit the virus. The virus is already at least 2-3 levels ahead in the population. I think our efforts are to noavail - with delivery services, US Post Office, grocery stores, and many other businesses open and available to transmit the virus.

Politically i think we are hidebound in the thinking and any change will elicit screams of "murder" from the LSM.
Still - I think we should carefully quarantine those at risk of death/severe morbidity - the elderly, those with underlying diseases - and let the rst of the population go about their business as we do in cold and Influenza season.

This plan obviates the need for extensive testing in the population - it is limited only to those with severe disease requiring hospitalization for disagnosis.


As Trump made the point - the cure should not be worse than the disease.

And that is what we have - and the Fascist DPST's are ...."Dancing with delight"....

L-17: Well then by that standard we all have it. you either have symptoms of the disease and are sick or you have no symptoms of the disease and are spreading it without realizing it. Pretty much a doomsday scenario.



You are correct - and it is the same scenario as Influenza A - only the wuhan virus likely has a much lower case fatality rate. It is likely many times more people are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic with Wuhan virus - and when transmissibility ends is unclear.

However - the risk of fatality is mainly to the elderly and those with underlying disease processes. Those can be self- quarantined and hopefully remain safe.

Even with the restrictions - there is plenty of human traffic in the world - more than enough to sprad the virus.

Yet We do not see mass fatalities - as your comment about doomsday scenario implies.

we are panicking without reasonable basis - we do not panic over the influenza a virus. This Wuhan virus is far overblown as a thrat to public health.

And the Fascist DPST's and LSM are in concert to keep the panic going and fruther the economic shutdown - and cause a true Grat Depression. China is already announcing the end of their restrictions in Wuhan/hubei. The virus will run its course - regardless of what we are doing now.

Time to re-assess and change direction - as Trump said - "The cure must not be worse than the disease" - he is well and truly correct!

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

New York, India, Europe.. those are all Shit Hole areas, with Shit Hole leadership

Originally Posted by LexusLover

Chan wants to turn this country into another China! Go figure.

Yeah, here's some more shit from one of those shithole countries,

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...tance-and-stay

This kind of shit is best ignored, like keeping your distance, more than a meter, from people with colds and wearing face masks. Real Americans don't wear face masks. We shake hands and get in peoples faces. And WTF, these chinks actually have the testing kits, data and analytical ability to do this kind of thing? And they've got face masks and we don't? It's all mother fucking bull shit. What works for Chinks would never work in the USA.

And you Chan, we all know you're a Chinese sympathizer. Everybody with some kind of Asian name is a chink. Border wars between Vietnam and China, China taking away Vietnam's maritime rights and Vietnamese rioting and closing down Chinese factories in response, it's all Commie propaganda.

[SecretE]

Think applying an oppressive national strategy to such disparate areas of the country is a bad move. Shouldn't be using the same strategies with a Texas that you would use with a New York. Texas will benefit from the hotter weather coming to help stop the spread of the virus. So will Louisiana, hopefully, given the recent spike in cases. New York won't be seeing such high temps until at least a month from now, and in some areas of the state, a couple of months from now. However, this virus still appears greater than the common cold or flu. I don't think we can fully re-open by Easter, even here in Texas.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...01e8b9cafc8b83

As of this post, still very early, but New York has the greatest sample size domestically. 37K cases total, with 385 deaths and 1902 resolved cases (deaths and recoveries combined). 385/1902 = a little over 20% death rate for all resolved cases. There are also about 575K cases worldwide, with about 122K recoveries and 25K deaths. So, with all the cases that have resolved (either by death or recovery), we are looking at a confirmed roughly 17% death rate [25K/(122k+25K)] of all resolved cases so far worldwide.

Now there may be asymptomatic cases that have gone untested and resolved on their own, along with greater numbers of recoveries as treatment options are found that will push that percentage down, as the rest of that 575K number may get pushed into the recovery column...or China may be vastly under-reporting the deaths in their own country and we are going to see a spike in the death toll because we have incomplete numbers. Still way too early to tell.

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Quote:
Originally Posted by oeb11
i agree that an infection rate of 1% of the US population is not reasonable - more likely over 50% total infection rate based on the transmissibility of the virus.

Many of these cases are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic - and that cohort decreases the case fatality rate significantly.



I think we are going about this wrong - our response to shut down all but "essential services" leaves people circulating to transmit the virus. The virus is already at least 2-3 levels ahead in the population. I think our efforts are to noavail - with delivery services, US Post Office, grocery stores, and many other businesses open and available to transmit the virus.

Politically i think we are hidebound in the thinking and any change will elicit screams of "murder" from the LSM.
Still - I think we should carefully quarantine those at risk of death/severe morbidity - the elderly, those with underlying diseases - and let the rst of the population go about their business as we do in cold and Influenza season.

This plan obviates the need for extensive testing in the population - it is limited only to those with severe disease requiring hospitalization for disagnosis.


As Trump made the point - the cure should not be worse than the disease.

And that is what we have - and the Fascist DPST's are ...."Dancing with delight"....

L-17: Well then by that standard we all have it. you either have symptoms of the disease and are sick or you have no symptoms of the disease and are spreading it without realizing it. Pretty much a doomsday scenario.



You are correct - and it is the same scenario as Influenza A - only the wuhan virus likely has a much lower case fatality rate. It is likely many times more people are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic with Wuhan virus - and when transmissibility ends is unclear.

However - the risk of fatality is mainly to the elderly and those with underlying disease processes. Those can be self- quarantined and hopefully remain safe.

Even with the restrictions - there is plenty of human traffic in the world - more than enough to sprad the virus.

Yet We do not see mass fatalities - as your comment about doomsday scenario implies.

we are panicking without reasonable basis - we do not panic over the influenza a virus. This Wuhan virus is far overblown as a thrat to public health.

And the Fascist DPST's and LSM are in concert to keep the panic going and fruther the economic shutdown - and cause a true Grat Depression. China is already announcing the end of their restrictions in Wuhan/hubei. The virus will run its course - regardless of what we are doing now.

Time to re-assess and change direction - as Trump said - "The cure must not be worse than the disease" - he is well and truly correct!

This happens every year. People contract viruses of the Influenza, Corona and Rhinovirus and many other types that will cause symptoms and mild to severe illness. It's a fact of life. The only difference with this virus is it was exploited and toted as a dangerous and killer virus and it isn't. Thus the wearing of masks and surgical gloves in public and all the other redundant measures that have little impact. What people don't realize is viruses, Bacteria are in our homes ventilation systems and you would be surprised how most people hardly change the filter on time. There has been Pandemics in the past with many cases and fatalities but we've never seen this type of reaction from it. It's a Psychological Operation and as long as people fall for this crap the more they will occur.

[oeb11]

Response to SecretE above:

China's numbers are not to be trusted - they are about 'face" - not accurate repoprting - and have made that clear with their cover-up attempts from day !


You math is based on false assumptions. See John Ioanidis article - or look it up. Best calculations so far.

The overall mortality is very likely far less than 1% - and less than Influenza A.

There is a large cohort of asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic individuals infected with Wuhan virus - that number is not calculatable directly - but significantly lowers the case morbidity/'mortality rate.

From reasonable inferences on the population cohorts.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

I don't think that was the increase in one day - I think it took several. The numbers are too low to be significant anyway.

Let's see tomorrow after noon - I think they update then.

Well, the update had 6 overnight deaths in Texas attributed to COVID-19.

Of course, 600-700 people die everyday in Texas, and I'm not sure if some of these deaths were older, unhealthy people, too.

Unfortunately, we need more data to say for sure.

Certainly don't have the all clear yet....

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Well, the update had 6 overnight deaths in Texas attributed to COVID-19.

Of course, 600-700 people die everyday in Texas, and I'm not sure if some of these deaths were older, unhealthy people, too.

Unfortunately, we need more data to say for sure.

Certainly don't have the all clear yet....

So what was the cause of death, was is Covid19 or some other ailment? The CDC and WHO like to play with numbers and statistics. I take their stats with a huge grain of salt.

[gnadfly]

My understanding is in Italy all covid19 deaths whether they had significant underlying issues or not.

In the US, nobody dies from "natural causes." I had two parent died in the last ten years. Their COD was "pnuemonia."

[SecretE]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Response to SecretE above:

China's numbers are not to be trusted - they are about 'face" - not accurate repoprting - and have made that clear with their cover-up attempts from day !


You math is based on false assumptions. See John Ioanidis article - or look it up. Best calculations so far.

The overall mortality is very likely far less than 1% - and less than Influenza A.

There is a large cohort of asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic individuals infected with Wuhan virus - that number is not calculatable directly - but significantly lowers the case morbidity/'mortality rate.

From reasonable inferences on the population cohorts.

This article?

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

He even states in the beginning...

At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.

Which pretty much mirrors my disclaimer that we need more information.

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.

I also stated in another response nearly 2 weeks ago we don't fully know because we are behind on testing...

https://eccie.net/showthread.php?p=1061990314

My calcs are based on current known data, which probably will deviate somewhat, as we go along and test more people, and resolutions occur (recovery or death), but that 17-20% has to make one take a little pause and not dismiss this yet. To make any final conclusions on this is very premature still.

By the way, I just learned I have a close family member in NY who may have been infected (getting tested tomorrow), so I'm definitely rooting for the mortality rate to decrease and treatments to become more readily available, so we can all get back to somewhat "normal" sooner.

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

My understanding is in Italy all covid19 deaths whether they had significant underlying issues or not.

In the US, nobody dies from "natural causes." I had two parent died in the last ten years. Their COD was "pnuemonia."

Wouldn't death from Pneumonia be a natural cause?