IHME COVID-19 Model

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

+───+───────────+────────────+─────────+────────────+────────+
|   |           |            |         | Total      | Total  |
|   |           | projected  | deaths  | projected  | deaths |
+───+───────────+────────────+─────────+────────────+────────+
|   | 04/04/20  | 22         | 22      |  22        |  22    |
|   | 04/05/20  | 20         | 13      |  42        |  35    |
|   | 04/06/20  | 22         | 14      |  64        |  49    |
|   | 04/07/20  | 26         | 23      |  90        |  72    |
|   | 04/08/20  | 29         | 22      | 119        |  94    |
|   | 04/09/20  | 33         | 27      | 152        | 121    |
|   | 04/10/20  | 37         | 28      | 189        | 149    |
|   | 04/11/20  | 41         | 17      | 230        | 166    |
|   | 04/12/20  | 46         | 16      | 276        | 182    |
|   | 04/13/20  | 51         | 31      | 327        | 213    |
|   | 04/14/20  | 56         | 46      | 383        | 259    |
|   | 04/15/20  | 62         | 29      | 445        | 288    |
|   | 04/16/20  | 67         | 35      | 512        | 323    |
|   | 04/17/20  | 73         | 27      | 585        | 350    |
+───+───────────+────────────+─────────+────────────+────────+

hot damn!!!! if i finally figured out how to post a table.

Excellent table sir!

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51 actual 31 deaths - another guess bites the dust
April 14th 56 actual 46 deaths - not a bad guess (along with 868 new infections)
April 15th 62 actual 29 deaths - public flogging for this guess!(963 new cases)
April 16th 67 actual 35 deaths - they are wrong again (916 new cases)
April 17th 73 actual 27 deaths - they really suck on that guess (889 new cases)
April 18th 79 actual 24 deaths - anyone else think they should be flogged? (663 new cases)
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Spooky looking triple crown there. Lots of meaning behind that. LOTS

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

 +───+───────────+────────────+─────────+────────────+────────+
|   |           |            |         | Total      | Total  |
|   |           | projected  | deaths  | projected  | deaths |
+───+───────────+────────────+─────────+────────────+────────+
|   | 04/04/20  | 22         | 22      |  22        |  22    |
|   | 04/05/20  | 20         | 13      |  42        |  35    |
|   | 04/06/20  | 22         | 14      |  64        |  49    |
|   | 04/07/20  | 26         | 23      |  90        |  72    |
|   | 04/08/20  | 29         | 22      | 119        |  94    |
|   | 04/09/20  | 33         | 27      | 152        | 121    |
|   | 04/10/20  | 37         | 28      | 189        | 149    |
|   | 04/11/20  | 41         | 17      | 230        | 166    |
|   | 04/12/20  | 46         | 16      | 276        | 182    |
|   | 04/13/20  | 51         | 31      | 327        | 213    |
|   | 04/14/20  | 56         | 46      | 383        | 259    |
|   | 04/15/20  | 62         | 29      | 445        | 288    |
|   | 04/16/20  | 67         | 35      | 512        | 323    |
|   | 04/17/20  | 73         | 27      | 585        | 350    |
+───+───────────+────────────+─────────+────────────+────────+

hot damn!!!! if i finally figured out how to post a table.

[oeb11]

i believe i know SomeOne that predicted this viral outbreak would be an equivalent to a severe Inifluenza A season.

More and more - it starts to appear So.


One may argue the "Models" all one wants - they are based on incorrect assumptions - and to be taken not as authoritative (like DPST opinions from certaini posters) - but with a salt shaker of Salt.



Dr John Ioaniddis was on last nite - and updated his early paper I previously entered in this forum. He writes a well supported article that seems to be truning out remarkably prescient.



Fascist DPST's may now scream and beg for more Wuhan virus shutdowns to destroy the economy and leave America at the mercy of the CCP! all due to their Trump hate.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Very interesting - nice post

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51 actual 31 deaths - another guess bites the dust
April 14th 56 actual 46 deaths - not a bad guess (along with 868 new infections)
April 15th 62 actual 29 deaths - public flogging for this guess!(963 new cases)
April 16th 67 actual 35 deaths - they are wrong again (916 new cases)
April 17th 73 actual 27 deaths - they really suck on that guess (889 new cases)
April 18th 79 actual 24 deaths - anyone else think they should be flogged? (663 new cases)
April 19th 86 actual 18 deaths (spotty Sunday reporting or pandemic in decline?) (535 new cases)
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by oeb11

i believe i know SomeOne that predicted this viral outbreak would be an equivalent to a severe Inifluenza A season.

More and more - it starts to appear So.


One may argue the "Models" all one wants - they are based on incorrect assumptions - and to be taken not as authoritative (like DPST opinions from certaini posters) - but with a salt shaker of Salt.



Dr John Ioaniddis was on last nite - and updated his early paper I previously entered in this forum. He writes a well supported article that seems to be truning out remarkably prescient.



Fascist DPST's may now scream and beg for more Wuhan virus shutdowns to destroy the economy and leave America at the mercy of the CCP! all due to their Trump hate.

They wish that the virus destroyed Trump but his skepticism was well founded, as was the researcher you referenced. Good job!

[oeb11]

FF - Thank you, Good Sir.

I appreciate your effort on these models.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Very interesting - nice post

Good data sources here and can be parred down by region or state and downloaded. Sadly, they do not automagically generate the best graphs. https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Good data sources here and can be parred down by region or state and downloaded. Sadly, they do not automagically generate the best graphs. https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

i'll see if i can covert that data for use here. what should be posted?

[dilbert firestorm]

.
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
|          |           |        |   Total   |  Total |
|          | Projected | Deaths | Projected | Deaths |
+==========+===========+========+===========+========+
| 04/04/20 |        22 |     22 |        22 |     22 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/05/20 |        20 |     13 |        42 |     35 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/06/20 |        22 |     14 |        64 |     49 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/07/20 |        26 |     23 |        90 |     72 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/08/20 |        29 |     22 |       119 |     94 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/09/20 |        33 |     27 |       152 |    121 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/10/20 |        37 |     28 |       189 |    149 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/11/20 |        41 |     17 |       230 |    166 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/12/20 |        46 |     16 |       276 |    182 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/13/20 |        51 |     31 |       327 |    213 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/14/20 |        56 |     46 |       383 |    259 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/15/20 |        62 |     29 |       445 |    288 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/16/20 |        67 |     35 |       512 |    323 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/17/20 |        73 |     27 |       585 |    350 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/18/20 |        79 |     24 |       664 |    374 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/19/20 |        86 |     18 |       750 |    392 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/20/20 |        92 |        |       842 |    392 |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/21/20 |        98 |        |       940 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/22/20 |       104 |        |     1,044 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/23/20 |       110 |        |     1,154 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/24/20 |       116 |        |     1,270 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/25/20 |       122 |        |     1,392 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/26/20 |       128 |        |     1,520 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/27/20 |       133 |        |     1,653 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/28/20 |       138 |        |     1,791 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/29/20 |       143 |        |     1,934 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 04/30/20 |       147 |        |     2,081 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 05/01/20 |       150 |        |     2,231 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 05/02/20 |       154 |        |     2,385 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 05/03/20 |       156 |        |     2,541 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 05/04/20 |       158 |        |     2,699 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
| 05/05/20 |       160 |        |     2,859 |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+
|          |     2,859 |    392 |           |        |
+----------+-----------+--------+-----------+--------+

[oeb11]

DF - it would help if you would define the locale/population your chart refers to.
Thank you!

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by oeb11

DF - it would help if you would define the locale/population your chart refers to.
Thank you!

It's the same data as FF is providing just formatted and with totals.