Keep an Eye on the Economy

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

You’re the most unserious economic mind on this forum. And that’s saying something with the folks like Salty posting.

No need for yer lowbrow insults! ... As I'm already known for
being MORE unserious than Farm is. ... HUUUGELY unserious!

Keep a good eye on the Trump Economy.
Let's give TRUMP a few months to turn things about.

#### Salty

[cc314]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Gentlemen, As you well know, that's nonsense. If prices are mostly lower at the end of Trump's term, we will have either been through the Mother of All Recessions or Japanification. Neither is desirable.


It's what he said, and it's what some folks want, the prices part. I'm not hoping for a recession or Japanification.



As you also know, Trump's not the most articulate guy around and is prone to exaggerate. When you hear him say "prices will come down", you should interpret it to mean "prices will come down relative to wages."


He's supposed to be a "tells it like it is" "says what he means" guy, so I'm going with what he said.


In that light, you've thrown out lousy benchmarks cc314. Use these instead. They'll have to be updated when 4Q 2024 and 1Q 2025, 2024 and 2028 numbers are available.


I'll check out your source. I'll probably keep using the benchmarks I have, but I wouldn't have a problem with more numbers.


Median real weekly wages, seasonally adjusted, 1982-1984 dollars:

1Q 2017: $352
4Q 2020: $376

1Q2021: $373
3Q 2024: $371

Change during Trump's term: +6.8%
Change during Biden's term so far: -0.5%

Real Median Household Income, Annual, 2023 dollars:

2017: 74,810
2020: 79,560

2021: 79,260
2023: 80,610

Change during Trump's term: 6.3%
Change during Biden's term so far: 1.7%

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

Thanks for the info.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

What I know is nonsense is that folks voted believing that Trump could do something about prices. Further, it’s total bullshit that Trump was good for the economy when all he did was not fuck up the Obama economy that was handed to him. Sadly people like you, Tiny, actually know better than the bullshit you keep posting but you push that bullshit narrative repeatedly anyway. I know you know better because you - unlike many in this forum - have shown to actually have some intelligence.

Again, Trump and the republicans ran on bringing prices down and he even claimed in his inauguration speech that they were going to bring prices down. Time to deliver snd be held to doing so.

How much effect does the president have on the health of the economy? Probably not as much as you think. Collectively factors like changes in technology, globalization, Fed policy, Congress, what's happening in other parts of the world, changes in demography and population, wars, oil price shocks and, once in a blue moon, pandemics are much more important.

That said, I'd rate Trump higher than Biden. Positives during Trump's term were the corporate tax cuts and deregulation. I can't really think of any positives for Biden.

Trump's tariffs sucked, but Biden kept them in place. Both men were spendthrifts who didn't pay attention to deficits. I'd rate Biden worse on that score though. At least Trump had COVID as an excuse in 2020.

Would we have suffered through high inflation if Trump had been re-elected in 2020? If Democrats had won the House and Senate, we very well might have. Towards the end of 2020, the Republican Senators were the only adults in the room. Trump and Pelosi and the Democrat-controlled House were inclined to continue with lavish stimulus spending, over the objections of McConnell and other Republicans. Trump and a Democratic Congress might have passed something like the American Rescue Plan in 2021, which ignited inflation in the USA.

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by CPT Savajo

For starters Elon is NOT the worlds richest person. It's a Central Banker/owner/biggest shareholder of said bank. ...

Nah. That wouldn't be richest. I always thought that, in the past, the richest person was the magnate of the Krup steel holdings. The company charter stated that the whole shebang was to be "owned" by one person: the head of the Krup family. That all stopped when it went public in 1968.

Originally Posted by royamcr

I know they are important, but get down to it farm subsidies keep one of the basic needs of life affordable. Should it be like this, no. Why should we tariff an importer on food then turn around and give 50 billion in subsidies cause we just screwed the farmer? This is way over simplified but that's the basics. It is an anti-regulation. This is one way Republicans buy votes, keep the farmers happy. That's why when you see a red/blue map, all the farmland is red. And they don't deal with big city problems like pollution where a lot of environmental regulations are needed. So it is easy for a farmer to hate regulations out in the middle of nowhere with clean air to say regulations suck.

Books can be written on this stuff, but I have more important things to do like go fuck a cute little Asian hooker. lol

Fancy stepping Roy. If you would have said price control, the maggies would have flocked on you as a murder.

Originally Posted by royamcr

Republicans are demanding a 4 trillion increase in debt ceiling. The fuckery is continuing. In 4 years my guess the debt will be round $45 trillion. Give or take a trillion...

WHA!?! I thought they were all against spending, the swamp, pork barrell, etc.

Originally Posted by farmstud60

That is the Democrats lie that most economists will disagree with it being a lie.


The economists that don't are basically promoting Marxist/Socialist/Totalitarian central planning garbage that always fails.

But if it puts a chicken in the pot....

[69in2it69]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

The broken window fallacy.

About as false as Clarence being a bought POS with a fat, ugly wife.

[cc314]

Originally Posted by Tiny

How much effect does the president have on the health of the economy? Probably not as much as you think. Collectively factors like changes in technology, globalization, Fed policy, Congress, what's happening in other parts of the world, changes in demography and population, wars, oil price shocks and, once in a blue moon, pandemics are much more important.


That said, I'd rate Trump higher than Biden. Positives during Trump's term were the corporate tax cuts and deregulation. I can't really think of any positives for Biden.

Trump's tariffs sucked, but Biden kept them in place. Both men were spendthrifts who didn't pay attention to deficits. I'd rate Biden worse on that score though. At least Trump had COVID as an excuse in 2020.

Would we have suffered through high inflation if Trump had been re-elected in 2020? If Democrats had won the House and Senate, we very well might have. Towards the end of 2020, the Republican Senators were the only adults in the room. Trump and Pelosi and the Democrat-controlled House were inclined to continue with lavish stimulus spending, over the objections of McConnell and other Republicans. Trump and a Democratic Congress might have passed something like the American Rescue Plan in 2021, which ignited inflation in the USA.

Let's stay out of the whatabout and whatif zone. POTUS47 has an R-controlled House, Senate, and Supreme Court. This thread is about one of the promises POTUS47 made. Let's see how he keeps it.

[royamcr]

Originally Posted by Tiny

How much effect does the president have on the health of the economy? Probably not as much as you think. Collectively factors like changes in technology, globalization, Fed policy, Congress, what's happening in other parts of the world, changes in demography and population, wars, oil price shocks and, once in a blue moon, pandemics are much more important.

That said, I'd rate Trump higher than Biden. Positives during Trump's term were the corporate tax cuts and deregulation. I can't really think of any positives for Biden.

Trump's tariffs sucked, but Biden kept them in place. Both men were spendthrifts who didn't pay attention to deficits. I'd rate Biden worse on that score though. At least Trump had COVID as an excuse in 2020.

Would we have suffered through high inflation if Trump had been re-elected in 2020? If Democrats had won the House and Senate, we very well might have. Towards the end of 2020, the Republican Senators were the only adults in the room. Trump and Pelosi and the Democrat-controlled House were inclined to continue with lavish stimulus spending, over the objections of McConnell and other Republicans. Trump and a Democratic Congress might have passed something like the American Rescue Plan in 2021, which ignited inflation in the USA.

You are offbase on most of this.

Deregulation led to the housing crisis allowing blackrock and others to scoop up properties, rehab and jack up rents and housing prices.

Biden kept trumps tariffs because China didn't keep up their end of the deal.

The course for inflation was set by the end of Trumps term, low interest rates, oil production cut, high m2 money supply, demand increasing, supplies low, high unemployment. This created the perfect storm for inflation. No way can rate Trump over Biden in this considering where we are today especially compared to the rest of the world.

Democrats oversaw the greatest turnaround in history, and Trump is on track to fuck it all up like Republicans always do. Dems will be back in 2 - 4 years to pick up the pieces and unfuck America once again.

[CPT Savajo]

Originally Posted by Precious_b

Nah. That wouldn't be richest. I always thought that, in the past, the richest person was the magnate of the Krup steel holdings. The company charter stated that the whole shebang was to be "owned" by one person: the head of the Krup family. That all stopped when it went public in 1968.

I've never heard of the Krup family but I still believe it's a Central Bank owner that's the richest person in the world. The liability of United States and European Union debt is somebody's asset. To the tune of trillions.

[CPT Savajo]

Originally Posted by royamcr

The course for inflation was set by the end of Trumps term, low interest rates, oil production cut, high m2 money supply, demand increasing, supplies low, high unemployment. This created the perfect storm for inflation. No way can rate Trump over Biden in this considering where we are today especially compared to the rest of the world.

The course of inflation took off after President Nixon ended the last vestiges of the Gold Standard in August of 1971. We've been on a 54 year experiment since then where the dollars no longer say, "Silver Certificate" at the top of every dollar. Print, print, print, print, print! Democrat or Republican it doesn't matter.

[royamcr]

Originally Posted by CPT Savajo

I've never heard of the Krup family but I still believe it's a Central Bank owner that's the richest person in the world. The liability of United States and European Union debt is somebody's asset. To the tune of trillions.

Maybe they are in the coffee industry.

[Jacuzzme]

Originally Posted by 69in2it69

About as false as Clarence being a bought POS with a fat, ugly wife.

Destruction of resources is never a net positive, that’s why it’s called a ‘fallacy’. Depleting our inventory is NOT an economic boon. The resources used to replenish them would have gone elsewhere into the economy, not to restore it to a previous state. This theory has been debunked for 175 years.

It’s not rocket science.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...ow-fallacy.asp

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by CPT Savajo

I've never heard of the Krup family but I still believe it's a Central Bank owner that's the richest person in the world. The liability of United States and European Union debt is somebody's asset. To the tune of trillions.

Well that's a big Mea Culpa on me! Meant Krupp.

Post a link to this person you refer to who owns the Central Bank. I only get a broad definition doing the googly. In the 1960s the head honcho had a billion dollars in assets.

Originally Posted by royamcr

Maybe they are in the coffee industry.

That is the single "p" I mistakenly posted.
But they make a damn fine coffee maker (if you get the european manufactured ones.)