Would China start a worldwide recession to elect Joe Biden?

[bb1961]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Yeah, I said it was a little far fetched. By the same token don't overestimate what leverage we have over them. If they took everything they manufacture that's destined for the USA and dumped it into landfills, it would cut their GDP by four percentage points. That's the ratio of their U.S. exports to GDP. But of course they won't do that. Most of the excess production will go to their other trading partners. So, if we continue on the current course and put tariffs on all their exports, maybe their GDP falls by 1.5%. That means their economy grows at 5% instead of 6.5%. Five percent is better than most of the rest of the world. And who's the Chinese man on the street going to blame the slowdown on? It damn sure won't be Xi and the Communist Party. It'll be Donald Trump and the Americans. Any rioting and burning would be directed to Apple stores and Kentucky Fried Chicken restaurants and the like.

I don't think China tariffs alone will throw the USA into recession. Combine those with steel, aluminum and auto tariffs on the rest of the world and 25% tariffs on Mexico and you're looking at a pretty good chance of one though. Recession or no recession, the effect of an all out trade war on the economy would probably mean Trump loses the election if Biden's his opponent. And it might be enough to enable the Democrats to win the Senate.

Is that you speed...

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

you don't need the internet to look out the window and see thousands rioting in the streets. when that quickly becomes millions it's over. the chinese have planned for this, you bet they have, but it doesn't matter. they station troops in areas not native to where they live so there is in theory less issue with firing into a mob if they aren't your friends and family. does not matter. why? because troops in western china firing on rioters know the same is happening where they live to their families.

within 48 hours the whole thing can and will swell out of control. the military would have to be willing to kill MILLIONS of citizens to stop it. or .. they can kill a few leaders in the government. what do you think they would do in such a mass nationwide riot?

they will turn on the communist leadership. that's what they will do. for this reason alone China cannot do shit to the world economy without destroying themselves.

disagree with your assessment.

the Chinese military exists to control their own population. they have riots that break out every so often and have to be quelled.

Remember Tiananmen Square in the 1990s. several thousand were killed and sent to prison. they still don't know what happened to the missing.

if it happened at Tiananmen Square, it'll happen again. the hot spot will be Hong Kong.

China should lose MFN (I understand its called something else now, NTR)

MFN = most favored nation
NTR = Normal Trade Relations
PNTR = Permanent Normal Trade Relations


Bush41 deserved to lose, never should have given China MFN. And Clinton made that permanent in the late 1990's.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

disagree with your assessment.

the Chinese military exists to control their own population. they have riots that break out every so often and have to be quelled.

Remember Tiananmen Square in the 1990s. several thousand were killed and sent to prison. they still don't know what happened to the missing.

if it happened at Tiananmen Square, it'll happen again. the hot spot will be Hong Kong.

China should lose MFN (I understand its called something else now, NTR)

MFN = most favored nation
NTR = Normal Trade Relations
PNTR = Permanent Normal Trade Relations


Bush41 deserved to lose, never should have given China MFN. And Clinton made that permanent in the late 1990's.

then the Chinese military better be prepared to kill millions of their citizens because that's what it will take once the revolution begins.


look at the upside .. China is so overpopulated they need a cull yeah?

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

then the Chinese military better be prepared to kill millions of their citizens because that's what it will take once the revolution begins.

look at the upside .. China is so overpopulated they need a cull yeah?

yeah, it'll probably make Mao's cultural revolution look like a piker. (I think 50 million were killed in that one)

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

yeah, it'll probably make Mao's cultural revolution look like a piker. (I think 50 million were killed in that one)

i've seen estimates in that range. probably over half that number starved due to the piss poor results of so-called socialist control of state resources (here's poking a capitalist stick in yer eye ecky9.5k) probably "only" a few million were purged on ideology grounds.

interesting that there are to this day such ardent lovers of socialism .. or hatred of capitalism.

socialism has killed tens of millions. capitalism has saved an order of magnitude more.

no capitalist ever starved to death. millions of socialists have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine


Total deaths

• 15 million (government statistics)
• 15 to 30 million (some scholarly estimates)[1]
• At least 45 million (Dikötter)

wonderful is socialism. NOT.

[RocketSurgeon]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

It's more than far fetched. it would be suicide by the Communist party. the only thing keeping them in power is their control of the economy not the military. any attempt to cause a economic collapse in the US or elsewhere would cause a huge crash in China. they are the most export dependent large economy in the world.

their control is not through the military. it's complete control of the economy and business. they lose that in some bullshit effort to throw the US election they are done. Their military cannot control a full scale nationwide riot. oh they can throw the switch and cut the internet and cell service to stop the "movement" but they would actually cause it. think about it, every Chinese in the country already knows the control and censorship the government has. They cut off everyone and everyone knows it's on.


you don't need the internet to look out the window and see thousands rioting in the streets. when that quickly becomes millions it's over. the chinese have planned for this, you bet they have, but it doesn't matter. they station troops in areas not native to where they live so there is in theory less issue with firing into a mob if they aren't your friends and family. does not matter. why? because troops in western china firing on rioters know the same is happening where they live to their families.

within 48 hours the whole thing can and will swell out of control. the military would have to be willing to kill MILLIONS of citizens to stop it. or .. they can kill a few leaders in the government. what do you think they would do in such a mass nationwide riot?

they will turn on the communist leadership. that's what they will do. for this reason alone China cannot do shit to the world economy without destroying themselves.

I disagree. China could do it relatively easily. I'm a former China resident, and my best friend is a world renowned expert on Chinese politics. I'll discuss in greater detail with him tomorrow, and provide his assessment and caveats.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by RocketSurgeon

I disagree. China could do it relatively easily. I'm a former China resident, and my best friend is a world renowned expert on Chinese politics. I'll discuss in greater detail with him tomorrow, and provide his assessment and caveats.

be my guest. just so you know i've spent considerable time in China too. there is a reason large numbers of people want out of china. there isn't a tinkers chance for a single chinese woman to get a travel visa. well the poor ones which is half of 98% of 1.4 billion. (less than half really due to that one child disaster now China actually has a pussy shortage and most of the chinese pussy would love to bail on Chairman Mao and his great society)

they would never come back. if you opened China for all who wanted to leave for one day only by Gov decrees (never happen) the population of China would drop in half. overnight.

i've been there. if you have too tell me it is not a shithole from Beijing to Shenzhen and all parts in between.

two things. China cannot withstand a trade war with the US. they will crumble like the former USSR did. The world's biggest cultural revolution (fueled by capitalism as a direct result of the failure of socialism) is waiting to happen in China. it's like the Big One in Kalifornica .. not if but when.

[RocketSurgeon]

If played well, China could theoretically win or draw in a trade war. So many factors at play. I'm hitting the sack now, but will try to provide some insights from my friend tomorrow.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bb1961

Is that you speed...

Tiny is Tiny. I do not have multiple handles.

I have been to Beijing and the surrounding area. I can't speak for the WHOLE city but I saw a thriving metropolis and the only area where I saw armed soldiers was around the Forbidden City. I stayed in a very nice hotel. 7-11 and McDonalds across the street. KFC down the street. An incredible upscale mall a block away with an Apple store that was packed. If the citizens are ready to revolt, you would never know it as they go through their daily lives.

[rexdutchman]

Joey is all for one world order where of course he makes money and everyone else loses

[dilbert firestorm]

would you say that china is a nice shit hole?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

there isn't a tinkers chance for a single chinese woman to get a travel visa. well the poor ones which is half of 98% of 1.4 billion.

Well then why can you walk into the Four Floors of Whores (Orchard Towers) in Singapore or Malioboro in Jakarta and be up to your ears in PRC poontang any night of the week?

Originally Posted by RocketSurgeon

If played well, China could theoretically win or draw in a trade war.

There are only losers in a trade war. They're like World War I.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Tiny is Tiny. I do not have multiple handles.

His lord and master is Donald Trump. He confuses people who don't bow down and worship him.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I have been to Beijing and the surrounding area. I can't speak for the WHOLE city but I saw a thriving metropolis and the only area where I saw armed soldiers was around the Forbidden City. I stayed in a very nice hotel. 7-11 and McDonalds across the street. KFC down the street. An incredible upscale mall a block away with an Apple store that was packed. If the citizens are ready to revolt, you would never know it as they go through their daily lives.

You might disagree, but Waco is right more often than he's wrong. However he went to the John Bolton School of Foreign Relations. China's one of the great economic success stories of our lifetimes, because of their transition from Communism to a more capitalistic society. They're not going to rise up and overthrow the Communist Party because they lose a couple of points of GDP, which they'll blame on Trump and the Americans anyway.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Tiny

...Waco is right more often than he's wrong...

Yeah, the tipoff is when he ends a post with BAAAHAHAHAHA!!

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Tiny

You might disagree, but Waco is right more often than he's wrong. However he went to the John Bolton School of Foreign Relations. China's one of the great economic success stories of our lifetimes, because of their transition from Communism to a more capitalistic society. They're not going to rise up and overthrow the Communist Party because they lose a couple of points of GDP, which they'll blame on Trump and the Americans anyway.

Actually I was not really disagreeing with Waco on this issue. I saw one small part of Beijing, although I did travel to other parts of the city such as the Olympic Stadium. Like any major city in the world, there are parts that are undesirable.

I also saw a lot of Buick cars on the road which surprised me. I found out that China has a Buick plant. Capitalism at work.