We've Flatten The Curve. It's Time For Texas To Move On.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

to be fair, the "experts" have speculated that virus-related deaths double every 2-4 days.. that is their definition of exponential.. fred's chart suggests Texas is not anywhere close to that.

Thank you for the recognition and validation of my point.

[Tiny]

I believe we're probably still seeing hyperbolic growth in the number of deaths in Texas. I guess you could make a case for it being some kind of a step function, were you step up from around 5 deaths a day to around 15. And with great luck you move down from there. Something like that may be what's happening in South Korea. On the other hand, based on Italy and Spain, you'd expect we've currently got hyperbolic growth that will become linear. Then the death rate will flatten and head down. You can see this by looking at "daily deaths" graphs here,

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/

It's great news by the way that Italy and Spain have turned the corner and the death rate is headed down.

South Korea is what I would have like to see us emulate. They were on top of this from the start and didn't have to shut down their economy. Instead of a bell shaped curve they leveled out deaths at a low level, three to eight people a day since March 2.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/south-korea/

And you could be right Fred, Texas may end up following in South Korea's footsteps, peaking at current death rates. My guess is that's not the case, but I hope it is.

[Revenant]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Sequential rate of increase, over 5 or 6 days - the average rate of increase is roughly the same, 5 to 6 data points - why don't you admit you made a mistake?

Get it straight dipshit. You made the mistake and I showed you the math above. Point out where you think I made a mistake.

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Sequential rate of increase, over 5 or 6 days - the average rate of increase is roughly the same, 5 to 6 data points

What the fuck does that even mean? Are you speaking English?

If experts determine that a disease has an exponential growth rate where the disease doubles every 5 or 6 days, that does NOT mean they measured for only 5 or 6 days. More like they measured every day (30 data points) for a MONTH and worked backwards to figure out the period of doubling. So, if after 30 days, the disease went up by a factor of 32, that constitutes 5 doublings (2 to the 5th power). 30 divided by 5 is 6. So you have a period of 6 days, where it doubles every 6 days for a month.

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Plus, Governor Abbott pushed the social distancing and we have done it now for over two weeks and at an enormous cost, but that has slowed the spread as well.

You have NO IDEA whether or not it has slowed anything down yet. It will take a MINIMUM of a month to know for sure.

And TO REPEAT - your own data above demonstrates that we are growing exponentially through the end of March into April. So what are you basing your false conclusion on?

[Revenant]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I believe we're probably still seeing hyperbolic growth in the number of deaths in Texas. I guess you could make a case for it being some kind of a step function, were you step up from around 5 deaths a day to around 15. And with great luck you move down from there. Something like that may be what's happening in South Korea. On the other hand, based on Italy and Spain, you'd expect we've currently got hyperbolic growth that will become linear. Then the death rate will flatten and head down. You can see this by looking at "daily deaths" graphs here,

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/

It's great news by the way that Italy and Spain have turned the corner and the death rate is headed down.

South Korea is what I would have like to see us emulate. They were on top of this from the start and didn't have to shut down their economy. Instead of a bell shaped curve they leveled out deaths at a low level, three to eight people a day since March 2.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/south-korea/

And you could be right Fred, Texas may end up following in South Korea's footsteps, peaking at current death rates. My guess is that's not the case, but I hope it is.

Parabolic, not hyperbolic. But I get your point.

Good news is that Italy just barely had less deaths today than yesterday, so they may indeed have turned a corner. But they are being very cautious about what they say.

A big point to remember is that Italy went into lockdown two weeks before we did. And they are only just NOW seeing improvement - if the report is accurate.

So, all the people that think we have turned the corner are very premature.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Revenant

I often wondered in years past why I saw so many Asians - in person or in pictures - wearing masks in airports or on planes - even in the US. I thought they were just hypochondriacs.

But, in reality, they had past experience in China or elsewhere in Asia with SARS, H1N1, and various bird flus and swine flus to know that you are most likely to catch something when you are packed into airplanes or airport lounges. So they took proactive measures - both to avoid catching a flu or spreading one if they might be sick themselves.

Going forward, you will see Americans doing the same thing far more often. People learn from harsh experiences.

its just not at airports or planes. some of them are doing it everywhere.


like you, i thought it was strange that would do this out of fear.

[Chung Tran]

I see IBHankering mentioned in your signature.. what happened to him? did he get bored and stop posting after Trump's Impeachment?

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

its just not at airports or planes. some of them are doing it everywhere.


like you, i thought it was strange that would do this out of fear.

Asians do this often.. everywhere. viruses are so common that wearing masks is second nature.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Revenant

Parabolic, not hyperbolic. But I get your point.

I guess if you're a mathematician exponential growth might be the best term but everybody here's getting hung up on it so I was trying to avoid using it. In my old job, we looked at hyperbolic and exponential declines, where exponential was a special case of hyperbolic.

As to turning the corner, I don't think we'll truly know that's happened until we have a vaccine.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I guess if you're a mathematician exponential growth might be the best term but everybody here's getting hung up on it so I was trying to avoid using it. In my old job, we looked at hyperbolic and exponential declines, where exponential was a special case of hyperbolic.

your rhetoric has become hyperbolic

there's a tendency on this forum, to engage in minute details of unimportant matters. everybody HAS to be right.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

your rhetoric has become hyperbolic

there's a tendency on this forum, to engage in minute details of unimportant matters. everybody HAS to be right.

My rhetoric is anything but hyperbolic, I AM always right, and minute details of unimportant matters are a great starting point. If I can convince Revenant I'm right about hyperbolic vs. exponential growth, then I've got a good chance of convincing him that lower capital gains taxes are a good idea.

[Munchmasterman]

For the last 20 years I have traveled to Japan 4-6 times a year.
I can't say for all the different Asian countries but the Japanese typically wear a mask when the person themselves are sick. More could be wearing masks to protect themselves. I can't say because I haven't seen this scale before.
There is a website that shows how to make a pleated mask from a bandana and hair ties. They claim they're good enough for going to the store and somesuch.

https://www.kiro7.com/news/trending/...HMW7MKEBZQBRY/

Originally Posted by Revenant

Why AFTER? Are you conceding it will happen during this pandemic?

I assume you are conceding because the US government - meaning Trump and Fauci - are now conceding that maybe - juuuust maybe - wearing a mask does give a bit of protection. And every bit helps.

At the start of the epidemic, it was important that the limited supply of masks we had be reserved for medical professionals. So the experts HAD to emphasize that the masks were unnecessary for a paralegal or a sanitation worker to use. So they downplayed the protection offered by masks for people who were not coughing and sneezing.

But NEXT time, this country will have huge stockpiles of respirator masks and protective clothing and ventilators. Because we always learn after the fact.

And the average citizen isn't going to listen to government anymore. People will have several boxes of latex gloves and N95 masks stashed at home in the future. And when there is another outbreak somewhere in the world, you will see Americans walking the streets wearing them.

I often wondered in years past why I saw so many Asians - in person or in pictures - wearing masks in airports or on planes - even in the US. I thought they were just hypochondriacs.

But, in reality, they had past experience in China or elsewhere in Asia with SARS, H1N1, and various bird flus and swine flus to know that you are most likely to catch something when you are packed into airplanes or airport lounges. So they took proactive measures - both to avoid catching a flu or spreading one if they might be sick themselves.

Going forward, you will see Americans doing the same thing far more often. People learn from harsh experiences.

[Munchmasterman]

Hankering can be fulfilled.
Maybe he "not be" at this point.

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I see IBHankering mentioned in your signature.. what happened to him? did he get bored and stop posting after Trump's Impeachment?

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

Asians do this often.. everywhere. viruses are so common that wearing masks is second nature.

they started doing this after 2002.

[Jacuzzme]

[friendly fred]

Very reasonable reply and thanks for the links.