IHME COVID-19 Model

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

what happened to "deficits don't matter"?

I thought I had an Ally, LOL.. maybe I'm the only true believer?

According to both sides, "deficits matter when they matter".

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

what happened to "deficits don't matter"?

I thought I had an Ally, LOL.. maybe I'm the only true believer?

I'm talking about private debts and economic activity lost forever.

Public debt is OK by me in lieu of taxes.

I would rather the government raise debt than taxes.

As long as the world is stupid enough to accept dollars, we should create them.

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51 actual 31 deaths - another guess bites the dust
April 14th 56 actual 46 deaths - not a bad guess (along with 868 new infections)
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[Tiny]

It hurts to do this. It hurts bad. Real bad. Here's a paper on the accuracy of IHME's initial predictions:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.04734.pdf

Quoting from the paper, which compared predicted deaths from March 30, 2020 to April 2, 2020 to the actual deaths for each of the states,

These figures show that for March 30 only 27% of states had an actual number of deaths lying in the 95% PI for the 1-step-ahead forecast. The corresponding percentages for March 31, April 1 and April 2, are 35%, 27%
and 51%, respectively. Therefore percentage of states with actual number of deaths lying outside this interval is 73%, 65%, 73% and 49% for March 30, March 31, April 1 and April 2, respectively. We note that we would expect only 5% of observed death counts to lie outside the 95% PI.

This actually is piss poor, when the majority of the time you're outside your own 95% confidence interval. Even worse, I believe IHME published their original paper on March 24. So only 7 days later, on March 31, they're outside the 95% confidence interval 73% of the time.

However, I admit nothing. I concede NOTHING. Epidemiologists were predicting as many as two million deaths in the USA. IHME's original estimate and its updates were much lower, under 100,000 deaths, saving most hospitals (not the ones in New York) lots versus what they would have spent if preparing for the worst cases. And without social distancing (or testing, tracing and masks, if we had those) perhaps 1 million+ would die.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

It hurts to do this. It hurts bad. Real bad. Here's a paper on the accuracy of IHME's initial predictions:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.04734.pdf

Quoting from the paper, which compared predicted deaths from March 30, 2020 to April 2, 2020 to the actual deaths for each of the states,

These figures show that for March 30 only 27% of states had an actual number of deaths lying in the 95% PI for the 1-step-ahead forecast. The corresponding percentages for March 31, April 1 and April 2, are 35%, 27%
and 51%, respectively. Therefore percentage of states with actual number of deaths lying outside this interval is 73%, 65%, 73% and 49% for March 30, March 31, April 1 and April 2, respectively. We note that we would expect only 5% of observed death counts to lie outside the 95% PI.

This actually is piss poor, when the majority of the time you're outside your own 95% confidence interval. Even worse, I believe IHME published their original paper on March 24. So only 7 days later, on March 31, they're outside the 95% confidence interval 73% of the time.

However, I admit nothing. I concede NOTHING. Epidemiologists were predicting as many as two million deaths in the USA. IHME's original estimate and its updates were much lower, under 100,000 deaths, saving most hospitals (not the ones in New York) lots versus what they would have spent if preparing for the worst cases. And without social distancing (or testing, tracing and masks, if we had those) perhaps 1 million+ would die.

I appreciate the link. We will still likely be studying this thing for years to learn more about it.

I really liked this line from the review:

"In reality, we found that the observed percentage of death counts that lie
outside the 95% PI to be in the range 49% - 73%, which is more than an order of magnitude above the expected
percentage."

To me what will be most interesting is when we do enough testing to see how many people really had it, and how many people didn't even know they had it. If we can find a strain of it that people can get without symptoms, maybe that can be a natural vaccine? Maybe an attenuated version of it is already "in the water" and we are getting herd immunity?

We just don't know enough yet to say, but I intuitively believe we are at the true peak in Texas now, deaths and cases will go down today and mostly down from hereafter, on average, to the final decline. We have social distanced enough over the last three weeks to make it possible.

I am tired of distancing myself from massages from pretty girls - I can certainly tell you that!

[HoeHummer]

News flash. The girls yous miss aren’t coming back from Wuhan. Only the fat ugly ones.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by HoeHummer

News flash. The girls yous miss aren’t coming back from Wuhan. Only the fat ugly ones.

Well, I like Latinas as well....especially skinny ones with long hair and very well taken care of skin tone. Fat % 15% or less.

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51 actual 31 deaths - another guess bites the dust
April 14th 56 actual 46 deaths - not a bad guess (along with 868 new infections)
April 15th 62 actual 29 deaths - public flogging for this guess!(963 new cases)
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51 actual 31 deaths - another guess bites the dust
April 14th 56 actual 46 deaths - not a bad guess (along with 868 new infections)
April 15th 62 actual 29 deaths - public flogging for this guess!(963 new cases)
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

... total tally
projected ... deaths
..... 445 ... 228

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51 actual 31 deaths - another guess bites the dust
April 14th 56 actual 46 deaths - not a bad guess (along with 868 new infections)
April 15th 62 actual 29 deaths - public flogging for this guess!(963 new cases)
April 16th 67 actual 35 deaths - they are wrong again (916 new cases)
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51 actual 31 deaths - another guess bites the dust
April 14th 56 actual 46 deaths - not a bad guess (along with 868 new infections)
April 15th 62 actual 29 deaths - public flogging for this guess!(963 new cases)
April 16th 67 actual 35 deaths - they are wrong again (916 new cases)
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

.......... projected .. deaths
April 16th ..... 490 .. 301

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51 actual 31 deaths - another guess bites the dust
April 14th 56 actual 46 deaths - not a bad guess (along with 868 new infections)
April 15th 62 actual 29 deaths - public flogging for this guess!(963 new cases)
April 16th 67 actual 35 deaths - they are wrong again (916 new cases)
April 17th 73 actual 27 deaths - they really suck on that guess (889 new cases)
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by Missburger

the economy under clinton was growing and much better than now would you like to get some graphs out to show the gnp and other stats to compare

we had a surplus under bill balanced the budget,

bush obama now trump blow it up


please dont believe orange man with the best ever bs

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonco.../#15f6cab36ea4

That was over twenty years ago this country has changed since then and it will change profoundly after the Government decides to allow businesses to reopen, so hold on to your hat.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by Levianon17

That was over twenty years ago this country has changed since then and it will change profoundly after the Government decides to allow businesses to reopen, so hold on to your hat.

At the end of the Clinton administration the U.S. economy tanked!

[dilbert firestorm]

+───+───────────+────────────+─────────+────────────+────────+
|   |           |            |         | Total      | Total  |
|   |           | projected  | deaths  | projected  | deaths |
+───+───────────+────────────+─────────+────────────+────────+
|   | 04/04/20  | 22         | 22      |  22        |  22    |
|   | 04/05/20  | 20         | 13      |  42        |  35    |
|   | 04/06/20  | 22         | 14      |  64        |  49    |
|   | 04/07/20  | 26         | 23      |  90        |  72    |
|   | 04/08/20  | 29         | 22      | 119        |  94    |
|   | 04/09/20  | 33         | 27      | 152        | 121    |
|   | 04/10/20  | 37         | 28      | 189        | 149    |
|   | 04/11/20  | 41         | 17      | 230        | 166    |
|   | 04/12/20  | 46         | 16      | 276        | 182    |
|   | 04/13/20  | 51         | 31      | 327        | 213    |
|   | 04/14/20  | 56         | 46      | 383        | 259    |
|   | 04/15/20  | 62         | 29      | 445        | 288    |
|   | 04/16/20  | 67         | 35      | 512        | 323    |
|   | 04/17/20  | 73         | 27      | 585        | 350    |
+───+───────────+────────────+─────────+────────────+────────+

hot damn!!!! if i finally figured out how to post a table.