IHME COVID-19 Model

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

If the intention is to "track the accuracy from today" then their most recent estimates should be used. It's your thread though, cherry pick if you want.

On March 31 their forecast for Texas was lower than the numbers above and on April 6 it was lower too. Right now their forecasted peak is 72 deaths on April 20. 517 people die on an average day in Texas from other causes.

As to the debt and becoming slaves, you can blame the CDC, the FDA and the rest of the federal government including Donald Trump. If they'd truly been on top of this we'd be like South Korea with a functioning economy.

Thinking we could have just gone about business like usual and ignored this is living in a fantasy land. It wouldn't work politically. People would become pissed as hell. You can blame the presidential administrations (Trump's and his predecessors) for more than half of the debt and economic problems. The presidency had the power to plan and prepare for an epidemic and then aggressively push testing, tracing and isolation when we knew we had one. The economy would be in much better shape and Trump wouldn't be signing bills to create trillions in new debt.

Several days ago they made a terrible prediction - this post is a monument to their failure and a snapshot of that day.

Sure, they can revise the model everyday. What confidence do you have in their numbers a week from now? They are worthless and yet the Feds have made destructive trillion dollar decisions based upon a model which doesn't even seem to feel bad about being incredibly wrong.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Several days ago they made a terrible prediction - this post is a monument to their failure and a snapshot of that day.

Sure, they can revise the model everyday. What confidence do you have in their numbers a week from now? They are worthless and yet the Feds have made destructive trillion dollar decisions based upon a model which doesn't even seem to feel bad about being incredibly wrong.

+1

[friendly fred]

Sean Davis
@seanmdav
· Apr 2
The IMHE model for the Wuhan coronavirus that the White House is relying on is garbage. It is using NY/NJ data and applying it to the rest of the U.S.

It predicted that over 121,000 Americans would be hospitalized yesterday over the coronavirus. The actual number? 31,142.

From Sean Davis twitter feed on April 2nd.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Sean Davis
@seanmdav
· Apr 2
The IMHE model for the Wuhan coronavirus that the White House is relying on is garbage. It is using NY/NJ data and applying it to the rest of the U.S.

It predicted that over 121,000 Americans would be hospitalized yesterday over the coronavirus. The actual number? 31,142.

From Sean Davis twitter feed on April 2nd.

Can't you allow me to retain a thread of dignity and self respect? I thought this was B.S. so pulled their original paper:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...752v1.full.pdf

They showed 90,000 hospitalizations on April 1 on their Figure 4. Sean Davis' figure of 31,142 hospitalizations on that date is probably approximately correct. So yes, about two weeks ago they were overestimating hospital beds by a lot. However your solution of shooting, hanging or incarcerating the researchers is serious overkill.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Can't you allow me to retain a thread of dignity and self respect? I thought this was B.S. so pulled their original paper:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...752v1.full.pdf

They showed 90,000 hospitalizations on April 1 on their Figure 4. Sean Davis' figure of 31,142 hospitalizations on that date is probably approximately correct. So yes, about two weeks ago they were overestimating hospital beds by a lot. However your solution of shooting, hanging or incarcerating the researchers is serious overkill.

Perhaps it is overkill, and your input has been reasonable, but let me tell you how egregious and harmful I think the errors of the model of Dr. Christopher Murray are:

Even if he is a right wing Trump supporter who hates faggots the damage he has caused is immense and he should be publicly humiliated.

Getting a do-over each and every day on the "Model" used by the US Government to shut down the most successful economy in history is not acceptable.

[Missburger]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Today is April 4th.

April 5th 20 (deaths per day)
April 6th 22
April 7th 26
April 8th 29
April 9th 33
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

so you dont think the social distancing and staying home is working? what is your anaylasis

[Missburger]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Gates is a fucking moron (and a thief). Hiow s suggestions would destroy the country for a generation and cause far greater suffering than covid could ever dream of.

bush already did that when he inherited a suprlus from clinton and turned into this huge deficit we have

how quickly you forget

[Missburger]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Perhaps it is overkill, and your input has been reasonable, but let me tell you how egregious and harmful I think the errors of the model of Dr. Christopher Murray are:

Even if he is a right wing Trump supporter who hates faggots the damage he has caused is immense and he should be publicly humiliated.

Getting a do-over each and every day on the "Model" used by the US Government to shut down the most successful economy in history is not acceptable.

the economy under clinton was growing and much better than now would you like to get some graphs out to show the gnp and other stats to compare

we had a surplus under bill balanced the budget,

bush obama now trump blow it up


please dont believe orange man with the best ever bs

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonco.../#15f6cab36ea4

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Missburger

so you dont think the social distancing and staying home is working? what is your anaylasis

Yes, I think social distancing is lowering the infection and death rate - though at this point we know enough about it we should just quarantine anyone over 70 or those with comorbidities, put on masks, and get to work.

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29
April 9th 33
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Can't you allow me to retain a thread of dignity and self respect? I thought this was B.S. so pulled their original paper:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...752v1.full.pdf

They showed 90,000 hospitalizations on April 1 on their Figure 4. Sean Davis' figure of 31,142 hospitalizations on that date is probably approximately correct. So yes, about two weeks ago they were overestimating hospital beds by a lot. However your solution of shooting, hanging or incarcerating the researchers is serious overkill.

I think peak deaths will be the middle of next week. I wish we had a trend on hospitalizations.

I believe we will even do slightly better than California (deaths per 1000 population) in spite of the fact they have more open air activities and had earlier and more severe lockdowns.

Also, I think hospitals are overcounting COVID 19 deaths - they get full pay for every COVID 19 death - no deductible. So, what might have been just a pneumonia death before, might as well be assigned COVID 19. The government is encouraging this and the hospitals need the money, so who am I to say it is wrong? I just don't like the way it overplays the crises.

[lustylad]

Didn't they just knock down their national death toll forecast (again) to 60,400? Why yes, they did!

Peak is now projected to be April 12, just four days away.

Soon we'll all be swimming in surplus respirators!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-model-agrees/

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Can't you allow me to retain a thread of dignity and self respect?

You're looking for dignity and self respect on a hooker board?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by lustylad

You're looking for dignity and self respect on a hooker board?

Yes I come to this board and participate in this hobby to improve my self esteem. It's a great feeling when hookers tell me how well endowed I am, even if it takes $50 extra sometimes.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Missburger

so you dont think the social distancing and staying home is working? what is your anaylasis

That's a valid point. The reason their numbers came down for Texas is largely because of social distancing and staying home in Spain, Italy and New York and maybe other places. If people hadn't done any social distancing there, then the curves in those places wouldn't be flattening or declining. And IHME's extrapolation to Texas wouldn't show much lower estimated deaths. They're currently predicting 2042 deaths in Texas and a peak at 66 deaths per day around April 20.

IHME's forecast relies mostly on curve fitting, instead of multiplying population by estimated infection and fatality rates. So their estimates have been a lot lower than most others.