Professor lichtman's 2020 prediction

[dilbert firestorm]

He says Trump wins 2020 election unless certain factors break Dems way.



https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahba...-2020-n2546999


Lichtman's prediction system is based on 13 true/false statements about the party that holds the White House. If six or more of the statement are false, the incumbent loses. If less than six are false, the incumbent wins. Simple!

Here are Lichtman's 13 criteria -- via his book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016" and as summarized by WaPo's Peter Stevenson:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

https://www.salon.com/2019/05/29/his...hment_partner/


In fact, he argued that foregoing impeachment could likely doom Democrats in 2020.

“Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020,” Lichtman told Cillizza.


“An impeachment and subsequent trial would cost the president a crucial fourth key — the scandal key — just as it cost Democrats that key in 2000. The indictment and trial would also expose him to dropping another key by encouraging a serious challenge to his re-nomination.”


so basically, this means Dems must impeach Donald in order for them to have a chance at winning the 2020 election. sounds like they do not have a choice.

[friendly fred]

I think the Democrats best chance is not impeachment but to destroy the economy any way they can so the people will blame Trump.

[Longermonger]

First, stop reading Townhall.
Next, the professor’s “keys to power” prediction only applies to a world of rational actors, truth, facts, logic, and reality. We’re in a world of reality stars, not reality. People today pick and choose what they want to believe is true. The rules don’t always apply nowadays.
Third, the impeachment umbrella covers investigation, an official impeachment inquiry, voting on articles of impeachment, a Senate trial, and upon conviction, removal.

Investigation can and is being done right now. House Democrats know that Trump would like to stonewall and delay an official impeachment inquiry. Time is on Dems side, as every day of delay puts the rest of the process in the middle of campaign season.

Imagine a House vote scheduled for a week after the GOP national convention. Imagine how all the Republican senators would vote in late summer of an election year.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Longermonger

First, stop reading Townhall.
Next, the professor’s “keys to power” prediction only applies to a world of rational actors, truth, facts, logic, and reality. We’re in a world of reality stars, not reality. People today pick and choose what they want to believe is true. The rules don’t always apply nowadays.
Third, the impeachment umbrella covers investigation, an official impeachment inquiry, voting on articles of impeachment, a Senate trial, and upon conviction, removal.

Investigation can and is being done right now. House Democrats know that Trump would like to stonewall and delay an official impeachment inquiry. Time is on Dems side, as every day of delay puts the rest of the process in the middle of campaign season.

Imagine a House vote scheduled for a week after the GOP national convention. Imagine how all the Republican senators would vote in late summer of an election year.

speaking of picking and choosing what one wants to believe, what can you show us here that is proof Trump is what you and the leftist ilk claim? Are you going to cite article after article from VOX, Slate, MSDNC and others that purport to be facts when all they are is opinion hit pieces hiding behind "reliable sources"?

like this guy?


https://eccie.net/showthread.php?t=2598242


why don't you buy a copy and give us a book report for the edumication of the masses here?

thank you valued poster!

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Longermonger

First, stop reading Townhall.

other media besides Townhall has carried the Professor's prediction.


so no, I'm not gonna stop reading Townhall. at least they're more accurate and have more political coverage than other media do and do coverage other media refuse to do. (eventually they're forced to cover it)

[dilbert firestorm]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/28/polit...020/index.html


a little more info on his prediction:
"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him. I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."

so, he's down to 3 keys. hmm...

[bb1961]

All the searching that I have done...I have yet to find an example of any president that didn't win reelection during a prosperous economy...is there one?

I guess Trump could go down in history as the first president with a prosperous economy not to win reelection...because he he was vilified more than any other president.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

I think the Democrats best chance is not impeachment but to destroy the economy any way they can so the people will blame Trump.

I think Trump is doing enough to hurt the U.S. economy with his tariffs. Doesn't need help from Democrats. Market down 6 weeks in a row. Many economic indicators negative.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bb1961

All the searching that I have done...I have yet to find an example of any president that didn't win reelection during a prosperous economy...is there one?

I guess Trump could go down in history as the first president with a prosperous economy not to win reelection...because he he was vilified more than any other president.

.

Probably daddy Bush in 1992. The only other POTUS in recent history to lose reelection was Carter in 1980. Small sample size.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/28/polit...020/index.html


a little more info on his prediction:
"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him. I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."

so, he's down to 3 keys. hmm...

And these factors only matter in a handful of states.

[rexdutchman]

I predict ,,,,

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by rexdutchman

I predict ,,,,

the professor claims to be right on 9 straight elections.

[rexdutchman]

I predict and I claim He prob predicted Billary winning

[bb1961]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

.

Probably daddy Bush in 1992. The only other POTUS in recent history to lose reelection was Carter in 1980. Small sample size.

Carters economy sucked...that wasn't the question.
I guess you're too young to remember the "misery index" and interest rates and inflation. Carter won in'76 because of Watergate and no other reason...he was a good person but TERRIBLE president...question was good economy...please answer the question.


Bush went back on his promise...read my lips "no new taxes"
Also Ross Parrot was a HUGE reason he lost the race.
https://brainly.com/question/3479430
Still waiting on your ill fated attempt at answering my question SPEED!!

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I think Trump is doing enough to hurt the U.S. economy with his tariffs. Doesn't need help from Democrats. Market down 6 weeks in a row. Many economic indicators negative.

my 401k year to date is up 12% and 1 year is up 8%. what's your point? the market drops a bit and you yell PANIC?

ok. go ahead. i checked my 401k today am my "losses" today were ... 0.05% that's one half of one percent.

yeah. time to PANIC isn't it?

the only thing that separates you from the other Trump haters is that you try to make a reasonable point. you are usually wrong but at least you try unlike some of the "trolls" here.