MSN Polls 4-26-2019

[oeb11]

MSN Polls - FYI
Some lower number number of polled, but interesting how the DPST's are tearing themselves to pieces trying to be the Far-Leftist-Socialist -Totalitarian - gimme all "Dat" candidate.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/
Who are you most likely to support in the 2020 presidential race?

• 49%
  A Republican
• 37%
  A Democrat
• 3%
  Someone from another party
• 11%
  I don't know

Total responses: 420,779 votes


Who would you vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today?

• 28%
  Former VP Joe Biden (D)
• 51%
  President Trump (R)
• 16%
  Neither of the above
• 5%
  I don't know

Total responses: 267,165 votes
Who would you vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today?

• 17%
  Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D)
• 55%
  President Trump (R)
• 25%
  Neither of the above
• 3%
  I don't know

Total responses: 224,066 votes


Who would you vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today?

• 22%
  Sen. Bernie Sanders (I)
• 56%
  President Trump (R)
• 20%
  Neither of the above
• 2%
  I don't know

Total responses: 208,854 votes


Who would you vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today?

• 22%
  Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D)
• 55%
  President Trump (R)
• 20%
  Neither of the above
• 3%
  I don't know

Total responses: 199,526 votes


Who would you vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today?

• 22%
  Sen. Kamala Harris (D)
• 55%
  President Trump (R)
• 20%
  Neither of the above
• 3%
  I don't know

Total responses: 193,033 votes


Who would you vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today?

• 24%
  Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D)
• 55%
  President Trump (R)
• 18%
  Neither of the above
• 3%
  I don't know

Total responses: 190,147 votes


Trump is ar from an ideal candidate - but the DPST's have nothing constructive to offer other than Far Leftist candidates.

The platform of

Soylent Green New Deal,
Slavery reparations
Term birth abortion
Free College for all
Hateful Plantation racial politics
Open borders to All
Welfare to all - including all of central and south America
Gun Confiscation - abolish the Second Amendment


Does not fly with Middle America.

Using Kalifornia and NY - banksrupt and corrupt States as a model for the Venezuelan plan for America - does not pass Muster.

[lustylad]

Hey oeb,

Just thought I would chime in here before speedy does. I tried to check your link but it doesn't go to the specific msn article you reference. I don't buy those numbers. It was probably an online "poll" that could be easily gamed. It is important for any credible poll to use a sample of respondents that is random and representative of actual voters. Online polls aren't random. They are skewed from the get-go. Most of the reputable polls I've seen lately put Biden ahead of Trump. Even Fox News last week put him 7 points ahead nationally. However, Trump is beating many of the other dim candidates.

There are so many polls out there nowadays that it's important to examine the methodology used before accepting their results.

[bamscram]

Nothing as worthless as another poll ,Hillary will win according to polls.
Keep em coming.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Hey oeb,

I don't buy those numbers.

I suspect Trump ain't selling them either. He's not for sale!

[oeb11]

LL- the link is to msn.com main page - scroll down just a bit and the real-time polls come up.

I am not defending methodology - it is simply a real-time poll.

Remember - the Polls which showed hillary ahead in 2016.

Thanks for asking,

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by oeb11

LL- the link is to msn.com main page - scroll down just a bit and the real-time polls come up.

I am not defending methodology - it is simply a real-time poll.

Remember - the Polls which showed hillary ahead in 2016.

Thanks for asking,

Yes, methodology and control is a key to polling. Real time basically anonymous polls are certainly suspect from the start. And in this case, it's not surprising the results as presented. Think about it, most lefties don't ever read beyond the headlines for their latest instructions from the MSM and heaven forbid they scroll down to an actual poll. So right there you are probably over sampled with Republicans who actually pay attention to things. Next, every question after the first goes beyond the more generic question and tries to pit a particular candidate against Trump. At this point, it's meaningless as most of the mindless left will eventually fall in line under whomever the left fixes the primary for.

However, going back to 2016, everyone continues to convolute the polls and the pundits. The polls were largely very accurate and within the margin of error in 2016. It was the pundits taking those numbers and proclaiming victory for Hillary.

[lustylad]

Anyone who has studied the history of modern polling is familiar with the upset of 1948. Polling was still in its infancy. Gallup stopped polling 2 weeks before Election Day and therefore failed to detect a big, last-minute swing in voter sentiment to the incumbent Harry Truman. Pollsters learned many lessons from that experience. It was a wake-up call, a "teachable moment."

Nowadays the good ones are careful to weed out sampling biases and they continue to poll right up to Election Day.





In the 1948 presidential election, Thomas Dewey, then governor of New York, ran against the incumant, Harry S. Truman. Three major polls (Gallup included) predicted Dewey would win. He did not. The Gallup poll came closest with 49.5% Dewey, 44.5% Truman, 5.5% other, and 0.5% undecided.

There were several problems:

First, they stopped polling too soon, and Truman was notably successful at energizing people in the last days before the election. The prediction came two weeks in advance of the election with 15% announcing undecided. It was assumed that the 15% undecided would split in the same proportions as those who had decided, leaving only 0.5% truly undecided. (The 0.5% undecided was Gallup's error factor.)

Second, the telephone polls tended to favor Dewey because in 1948 telephones were generally limited to more well-to-do households, and Truman was less popular among elite voters...

http://www.oxfordmathcenter.com/drupal7/node/251

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Second, the telephone polls tended to favor Dewey because in 1948 telephones were generally limited to more well-to-do households, and Truman was less popular among elite voters...

http://www.oxfordmathcenter.com/drupal7/node/251

It's interesting you mention the phone polls. We are going through that change again the last couple election cycles. Telephone to regular land line numbers has been one of the staples of polling and the move away from regular land lines has been skewing results lately as well. Older people are now more often found to be carrying a land line while the younger generation is going totally mobile.

Polling processes are having a hard time catching up with technology in order to remain accurate.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Hey oeb,

Just thought I would chime in here before speedy does. I tried to check your link but it doesn't go to the specific msn article you reference. I don't buy those numbers. It was probably an online "poll" that could be easily gamed. It is important for any credible poll to use a sample of respondents that is random and representative of actual voters. Online polls aren't random. They are skewed from the get-go. Most of the reputable polls I've seen lately put Biden ahead of Trump. Even Fox News last week put him 7 points ahead nationally. However, Trump is beating many of the other dim candidates.

There are so many polls out there nowadays that it's important to examine the methodology used before accepting their results.

Thank you Lustylad. Yes, it certainly sounds like an online poll.

Whether online or a poll from a reputable company, take them FWIW. Too, too early to take the polls very seriously in making predictions for November 2020. At this time in 2015 where was Trump in polls?

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Speaking of polling, people are going to love this.

Yesterday I received in the mail a "2019 Congressional District Census in your name as a representative of Cedar Park", commissioned by the Republican Party. Due to my "high level of political involvement, (your) personal input on the questions presented in your Census Document is important to our nation's future."

"This is the largest Congressional District Census our party has ever taken for a Presidential election. Your completing and returning your 2019 Census Document is central to our ability to devise a winning Republican strategy in your area as we prepare for President Trump's re-election."

Go figure.