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The Political Forum Discuss anything related to politics in this forum. World politics, US Politics, State and Local.

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Old 11-03-2016, 02:29 PM   #1
canuckeight
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Default Yes, Donald Trump can win. Here are 4 maps that prove it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ld-trump-wins/
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Old 11-03-2016, 04:06 PM   #2
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Even I did not say Trump could not win. I said improbable but not impossible.

Scenario 1 -- Trump must win N.C., N.H., and Colorado. The last "Poll of Polls" which takes into account the last 5 or so valid polls has Trump behind by 4 points in N.C. N.H. and Colorado polls are changing on a daily basis but are pretty much even.

Scenario 2 -- Almost impossible scenario for Trump to win.

Scenario 3 -- A tie and could happen. I can see Trump winning in Florida, Iowa, N.H., Nevada, and Ohio. In case of a tie, Trump wins.

Scenario 4 -- I just don't see Trump winning in Wisconsin.

So the way I see it is that Colorado, Florida and N.C. are the 3 states that could swing the election to either side. Colorado and Florida are a dead heat as of today. I don't see any new news coming out that will shift voters from 1 side to the other between today and next Tuesday. Should be interesting. Trump is still an underdog but certainly not out of it as it appeared to be about 2-3 weeks ago.
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Old 11-05-2016, 03:36 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canuckeight View Post
This race comes down to two states, Florida and North Carolina. If Clinton wins either one, she will win the electoral college.
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Old 11-05-2016, 09:17 AM   #4
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Yep. And she's leading in both.

The bigger question for my intellectually challenged OP -- what about the poll coming out on Tuesday? Will that "prove it" for you?

You want to wager 90 days of your life on it?
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Old 11-05-2016, 09:33 AM   #5
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The latest polling shows that option 3 is the most likely (at this time) except they forgot to add Maine. You see Maine votes in two pieces and not winner take all. Trump is leading in part of Maine and if he wins then he gets one more electoral vote which would give him 270 and the win. If that didn't happen and there was a tie, the election goes to the House of Representatives and they choose among the top two vote getters. Guess who wins then?
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Old 11-05-2016, 02:36 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by flghtr65 View Post
This race comes down to two states, Florida and North Carolina. If Clinton wins either one, she will win the electoral college.
I'm shocked it is this close. Hillary, being the professional politician, is in danger of losing the Presidency to someone who has run a terrible, gaffe filled campaign. She really must suck for it to be this close.
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Old 11-05-2016, 07:02 PM   #7
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I'm shocked it is this close. Hillary, being the professional politician, is in danger of losing the Presidency to someone who has run a terrible, gaffe filled campaign. She really must suck for it to be this close.
And it's hard to believe that Trump could lose to a candidate so despised as Clinton. I think it's still true that more people are voting against a candidate than for a candidate. What a mess!!
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Old 11-05-2016, 08:26 PM   #8
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And it's hard to believe that Trump could lose to a candidate so despised as Clinton. I think it's still true that more people are voting against a candidate than for a candidate. What a mess!!
It is a mess, and so is Amerika.
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Old 11-06-2016, 01:38 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by DSK View Post
I'm shocked it is this close. Hillary, being the professional politician, is in danger of losing the Presidency to someone who has run a terrible, gaffe filled campaign. She really must suck for it to be this close.
Trump has one demographic that is helping him make it close. That demographic is white males who did not attend college. The second thing is despite running a bad campaign Trump is getting help from the email scandal. Despite being not liked Clinton was not going to lose to Sanders or O'Malley in the democratic primary.
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Old 11-06-2016, 01:46 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by canuckeight View Post
In all 4 maps Trump was given Florida. RCP has Clinton ahead of Trump in 5 out of 6 polls. Trump will not get to 270 without Florida and North Carolina.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_jo hnson_vs_stein-5963.html
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Old 11-06-2016, 01:51 AM   #11
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we'll have to wait an see if Gary johnson takes New Mexico & Evan McMullin takes Utah.

that would be quite a mess for Hillary & Trump in a very close race.
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Old 11-06-2016, 03:31 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flghtr65 View Post
Trump has one demographic that is helping him make it close. That demographic is white males who did not attend college. The second thing is despite running a bad campaign Trump is getting help from the email scandal. Despite being not liked Clinton was not going to lose to Sanders or O'Malley in the democratic primary.
And where the fuck does Anonymous fit into your imaginary demographic projections, flighty? They'd be the square peg that doesn't fit in your empty, round head projection of who should be anti-Clinton, flighty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_PkobtkgdM&feature
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Old 11-06-2016, 08:47 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flghtr65 View Post
Trump has one demographic that is helping him make it close. That demographic is white males who did not attend college. The second thing is despite running a bad campaign Trump is getting help from the email scandal. Despite being not liked Clinton was not going to lose to Sanders or O'Malley in the democratic primary.
You mean the ECCIE vote...
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Old 11-06-2016, 08:48 AM   #14
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we'll have to wait an see if Gary johnson takes New Mexico & Evan McMullin takes Utah.

that would be quite a mess for Hillary & Trump in a very close race.
Wanna bet on Johnson, dildo?

Nice side bet.

It is worth it to me to keep your continual SPAM off the board.

Whaddya say?. I take 90 if Johnson wins New Mexico. You take 90 if he doesn't.
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Old 11-06-2016, 08:51 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX View Post
And it's hard to believe that Trump could lose to a candidate so despised as Clinton. I think it's still true that more people are voting against a candidate than for a candidate. What a mess!!
This indicates how utterly absurd Drump was as a nominee.

The knuckle breathers don't get that. They have nobody to blame, and will accordingly shit themselves uncontrollably.
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