Can Trump Still Win?

[hotthencold2009]

Politics itself has been corrupt for decades and only gets worse every year. They're are only a small handful of politicians/senators/congressman, who are not corrupt and do not buy into the propaganda that 98% of them do. Also, if your only source of information is the mainstream media then you are truely a dumbass and the corrupts tyrants in office have you right where they want you. There needs to be a movement by THE PEOPLE to march on capital hill and take back our country. None of you can deny that the current government seems to think that they are our boss and we must abide by their rules. WRONG!!! They are OUR elected officials who's sallary is paid for by our tax dollars. They are suppose to work for us not the other way around. How much longer are we going to let them spend our money the way they want to? When Government scares the people, it's called tyrany, when Government is scared of the people, that's called LIBERTY. Wake the fuck in people! There is a reason why the founding fathers wrote the second amendment! It wasn't for hunting but instead it's for the people to be able to protect themselves and their families from enemy's both foreign and DOMESTIC! 1776 will commence again folks I can promise you that.

[Cap'n Crunch]

oh man... lol

[David.Douchehurst]

WOLV'REEENS!

[pussycat]

The same media that gave us the certainty of WMDs in Iraq is now telling us that everything in America is fine! The stock markets are at record highs! Corporate profits are healthy! People seeking unemployment assistance is way down! We have recovered from the crisis of 2008!

But what they neglect to say is this:

1.Average family incomes in 2007 were over 57,000 and dropped to less than 53,000 from 2007 to 2009. They have never recovered. Average family income has not increased one dime since 2009. It is still less than 53,000.

2.The rate of people out of the workforce completely has never been higher since the Great Depression. Tens of millions of people have either dropped out completely because wages are so low or they've moved on to black market activities which pay more.

3.The growth in the economy is flat. The increase in population in America is one percent per year, so if the economy is growing at only one percent that means per capita it is not growing at all.

4.The rate of poverty has not been this high since the end of the Great Depression, and the numbers of people on food assistance is up 400 percent in seven years.

5.Federal borrowing is at very high levels, amounting to half the Federal budget, which is 23 percent of GDP. That means that about 10 percent of GDP is from borrowing alone. This is needed to maintain the one percent growth in the economy. Without this massive stimulus of money pouring into the economy to prop up aggregate demand the economy would be in a depression.

6.At the same time the Federal borrowing is at massive levels to maintain zero growth the Federal Reserves is still pumping trillions of dollars in zero interest credit to maintain zero growth. If the Federal reserve were to return to normal rates of interest and M2 figures (which they won't even publish any more) the economy would be in a depression

7.There is a middle class which continues to apply for mortgages and buy new cars. However that middle class consists only of dual income Professionals. This cohort are husbands and wives who met in college, graduated at the top 10 percent of their classes, and combine their incomes to afford houses, cars, etc. But if one of them wasn't working they would be in the poor house. One income alone, even for a degreed Professional like a CPA, doesn't pay enough given the inflation in housing, education, property taxes from the inflation in home values, legal services and health care. Health insurance premiums are now so high that millions devote most of their paychecks just to pay for private insurance which they will be penalized for under the tax code for not purchasing.

This is why there is a revolution.

Sanders and Trump are only the beginning. One is a globalist and the other is a nationalist but they agree on the basics of bringing back our manufacturing base upon which any economy must rest. We can't have trillion dollar trade deficits every year and hope to even feed ourselves.
We are already broke. We are living off credit. Without change we are done. We are finished.

[goobersnotch]

Originally Posted by pussycat

The same media that gave us the certainty of WMDs in Iraq is now telling us that everything in America is fine! The stock markets are at record highs! Corporate profits are healthy! People seeking unemployment assistance is way down! We have recovered from the crisis of 2008!

But what they neglect to say is this:

1.Average family incomes in 2007 were over 57,000 and dropped to less than 53,000 from 2007 to 2009. They have never recovered. Average family income has not increased one dime since 2009. It is still less than 53,000.

Dude there was a global recession that affected every 1st world country. The entire world hasn't recovered yet.

2.The rate of people out of the workforce completely has never been higher since the Great Depression. Tens of millions of people have either dropped out completely because wages are so low or they've moved on to black market activities which pay more.

Bullshit. The unemployment rate is 5%. There are millions more people out of the work force because people are living longer, thus more retirees.

3.The growth in the economy is flat. The increase in population in America is one percent per year, so if the economy is growing at only one percent that means per capita it is not growing at all.

It is growing. It is not super high, but it is growing.

4.The rate of poverty has not been this high since the end of the Great Depression, and the numbers of people on food assistance is up 400 percent in seven years.

More bullshit. Even then, you're a goddamn moron if you think Trump, who wants to eliminate the minimum wage and give more money to rich people, would be able to fix that. If anything, he would exacerbate the problems. Trickle down economics do not work and have never worked.

5.Federal borrowing is at very high levels, amounting to half the Federal budget, which is 23 percent of GDP. That means that about 10 percent of GDP is from borrowing alone. This is needed to maintain the one percent growth in the economy. Without this massive stimulus of money pouring into the economy to prop up aggregate demand the economy would be in a depression.

6.At the same time the Federal borrowing is at massive levels to maintain zero growth the Federal Reserves is still pumping trillions of dollars in zero interest credit to maintain zero growth. If the Federal reserve were to return to normal rates of interest and M2 figures (which they won't even publish any more) the economy would be in a depression

Irrelevant nonsense that racist, sexist, xenophobic, and all around retard Trump has no ability to fix. Republicans have no interest in fixing these issues in general. All they want to do is ban abortion, ban gay marriage, and implement big tax cuts for the rich and corporations. They couldn't give a shit about the deficit or whatever nonsense you're going on about.

7.There is a middle class which continues to apply for mortgages and buy new cars. However that middle class consists only of dual income Professionals. This cohort are husbands and wives who met in college, graduated at the top 10 percent of their classes, and combine their incomes to afford houses, cars, etc. But if one of them wasn't working they would be in the poor house. One income alone, even for a degreed Professional like a CPA, doesn't pay enough given the inflation in housing, education, property taxes from the inflation in home values, legal services and health care. Health insurance premiums are now so high that millions devote most of their paychecks just to pay for private insurance which they will be penalized for under the tax code for not purchasing.

Health insurance premiums are high because Republican governors refused to accept medicare expansion to pay for it. And also, insurers are greedy fucks. The CEOs of the insurance companies are making millions of dollars.

Sanders and Trump are only the beginning. One is a globalist and the other is a nationalist but they agree on the basics of bringing back our manufacturing base upon which any economy must rest. We can't have trillion dollar trade deficits every year and hope to even feed ourselves.
We are already broke. We are living off credit. Without change we are done. We are finished.

Sanders and Trump are polar opposites. Quite frankly, there is no legit reason to support Trump unless you're a white supremacist. None of his policies would help the country. The only thing Trump cares about is himself.

And manufacturing is dead. The future has always been in automation. The only solution is what Sanders proposed (socialism) but you rich fucks are too greedy and selfish to realize that European socialism is better than unfetted, unregulated capitalism.

[Cap'n Crunch]

Goobersnatch, thank you for the educated response. Ignorant (and bigoted) people like Trump and pussycat spread misinformation and lies, which only makes solving the real problems more difficult.

People want to talk about what is RIGGED? What is rigged is a free market system that has allowed the obscenely rich to grab all the wealth at the expense of the rest of us. But if you think giving tax breaks to the obscenely rich is going to fix these problem, then your misery will simply continue. NOTHING significant is going to change until we reign in a free market system gone amuck.

Ultimately, this thread is a joke because Trump has zero chance to win. Trump will win the white uneducated vote, but that is not going to be enough. Mark my word and come back to me after the election, ok?

After the election, intelligent people across all parties will need to work together, not obstruct, so that we can build better lives for ourselves.

Those lacking intelligence might possibly grab their guns and try to "take action." They will be imprisoned. And perhaps this purge of lunatics will be a good thing,

[Miss Valentina]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Also, in play in the "Secret Trump Voter" - those folks who don't want anyone to know that they support the Donald but don't want to put a vote Trump sign in their yard for fear of what the neighbors think. But once they get in the voting booth - no one will see who they really are voting for. You can actually google this - it's real. I'm not one of these folks because I love the Donald. And for those folks that are offended by what he says - damn, people get in the real world-hang out with some U.S. Marines - those guys will make what the Donald said tame.

I KNOW RIGHT??? Like who in their right minds would ever want their neighbors to know they're authoritarian, racist, misogynistic supremacist nationalist fascists????

[pussycat]

Originally Posted by goobersnotch

Dude there was a global recession that affected every 1st world country. The entire world hasn't recovered yet.



Bullshit. The unemployment rate is 5%. There are millions more people out of the work force because people are living longer, thus more retirees.



It is growing. It is not super high, but it is growing.



More bullshit. Even then, you're a goddamn moron if you think Trump, who wants to eliminate the minimum wage and give more money to rich people, would be able to fix that. If anything, he would exacerbate the problems. Trickle down economics do not work and have never worked.



Irrelevant nonsense that racist, sexist, xenophobic, and all around retard Trump has no ability to fix. Republicans have no interest in fixing these issues in general. All they want to do is ban abortion, ban gay marriage, and implement big tax cuts for the rich and corporations. They couldn't give a shit about the deficit or whatever nonsense you're going on about.



Health insurance premiums are high because Republican governors refused to accept medicare expansion to pay for it. And also, insurers are greedy fucks. The CEOs of the insurance companies are making millions of dollars.




Sanders and Trump are polar opposites. Quite frankly, there is no legit reason to support Trump unless you're a white supremacist. None of his policies would help the country. The only thing Trump cares about is himself.

And manufacturing is dead. The future has always been in automation. The only solution is what Sanders proposed (socialism) but you rich fucks are too greedy and selfish to realize that European socialism is better than unfetted, unregulated capitalism.

Everything you said is incorrect. Your replies did not clash or speak to my points. The unemployment rate of 5 percent only reflects the number of people applying for unemployment benefits and does not reflect the tens of millions unemployed who cannot apply for benefits. It is totally misleading. The crash of 2008 has created a new economy in which the stock markets are high, and corporate profits are high, but family incomes are way down and not improving. You claim the recession is still here and that explains low wages and a 400 increase in food assistance is temporary, but it's been eight years now and corporate profits and equity markets are fully recovered. Are you suggesting that employment and incomes lag the recovery by eight years????
And what about zero interest rates and deficit spending of 10 percent of the GDP just to sustain a one percent rate of economic growth???? All that stimulus and no growth??? You claim there is growth but the fact is the GDP increased by only one percent last year and this year and population increase was one percent so that cancels out any growth.

Trump is a nationalist and Sanders was a globalist. That is their only difference. Other than that they are both on record for opposing the Iraq war, and ending free trade.

[SecretE]

When CNN now shows Trump up 4 in Ohio, you know he is still in this. Never mind all of the rest of the data dumps coming. I think HRC and the DNC are out of ammo.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by pussycat

Everything you said is incorrect. Your replies did not clash or speak to my points. The unemployment rate of 5 percent only reflects the number of people applying for unemployment benefits and does not reflect the tens of millions unemployed who cannot apply for benefits..

This caught my eye and I checked it out and found you to be incorrect in that the
unemployment rate uses several sources to come up with the statistic.

Source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/...oymentrate.asp

"Unemployment is measured in a number of ways in the U.S.: labor force sample surveys, Social Insurance statistics, which are numbers drawn from the number of people drawing unemployment benefits and other welfare programs, and employment office statistics which measure the number of people who come into unemployment offices looking for work. When calculating the official unemployment rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics consider all the information gathered by these methods to provide a holistic picture of the labor market and the challenges facing workers."

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by SecretE

When CNN now shows Trump up 4 in Ohio, you know he is still in this. Never mind all of the rest of the data dumps coming. I think HRC and the DNC are out of ammo.

Trump has to win 63 more electoral votes than Romney to tie. Right now there is no road to victory for Trump. Here are the latest polls in the battleground states with electoral votes in parens:

Ohio -- Tied (18)
Florida -- Clinton +4 (29)
Pennsylvania - Clinton +6 (20)
Colorado -- Clinton +8 (9)
N.C. -- Clinton +4 (15)
Nevada -- Clinton +2 (6)
Virginia -- Clinton +15 (13) (I find this +15 to be inconsistent with other polls)
Michigan -- Clinton +11 (16)
Wisconsin -- Clinton +7 (10)

22 days to go. Let's assume Trump wins Ohio. Now Trump needs 45 additional electoral votes to move from blue to red, and hope that N.C., which went red in 2012, stays red. Let's go further and give Florida to Trump. Now the needed electoral votes is down to 16 to tie.

Impossible no. Improbably yes.

[pussycat]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

This caught my eye and I checked it out and found you to be incorrect in that the
unemployment rate uses several sources to come up with the statistic.

Source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/...oymentrate.asp

"Unemployment is measured in a number of ways in the U.S.: labor force sample surveys, Social Insurance statistics, which are numbers drawn from the number of people drawing unemployment benefits and other welfare programs, and employment office statistics which measure the number of people who come into unemployment offices looking for work. When calculating the official unemployment rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics consider all the information gathered by these methods to provide a holistic picture of the labor market and the challenges facing workers."

According to the Pew Research Center, the Brookings Institution, and other sources...

92 million Americans, 37 percent of the civilian population over the age of 16, are now "not in the workforce." These are people who have not been able to find work for so long that they have moved on to lifestyles subsisting without employment.

Is that the America you want? Is that the America you grew up in? I know living in Texas at present, and Austin in particular, we live in a prosperous region. But Texas is an island, and that's because of oil. Before oil transformed Texas it was like....Arkansas! Blah!

[pussycat]

If the sex tape had happened one week before the election Trump would be dead. It was released too soon. The news cycle and public attention has become so fast today that by the time of the election people will give no more weight to Trump's sex talk as they do Bill Clinton's impeachment and Monica Lewinsky's semen stained dress. If Trump lets loose another barrage of attacks on Hilary in the next debate like he did before she could sink. Trump is now playing to his base. The question is can this work? This was George W. Bush's strategy in 2004, and most pundits say if Bush had done that today he would lose because demographics have changed. But it's not as simple as that. Hilary has to get her supporters to turn out. No doubt she has a great grassroots machine like Obama had in 2012, but it may not work for her the way it worked for Obama. If Hilary wasn't such a weak candidate Trump wouldn't stand a chance. But Hilary is so weak that her supporters may not show up to vote. And others may assume in certain states that she's a win there and not show up to vote. A lot of things can go wrong with her turnout effort. Another problem she has is that her staff is not that good. Obama had stars like David Axelrod and others making sure every last detail was in order. Hilary doesn't have anything like that kind of professionalism anywhere in her staff. She always likes weak people around her, and Podesta is no star.

[David.Douchehurst]

Originally Posted by Gabe Barr.

I'm voting trump. We must secure our borders. We have enough homegrown criminals. Importing more is insane.

We's importin' 'em?!?!? Thet's prolly cuz o' NAFTA!

Ah blames Obama.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by pussycat

According to the Pew Research Center, the Brookings Institution, and other sources...

92 million Americans, 37 percent of the civilian population over the age of 16, are now "not in the workforce." These are people who have not been able to find work for so long that they have moved on to lifestyles subsisting without employment.

Is that the America you want? Is that the America you grew up in? I know living in Texas at present, and Austin in particular, we live in a prosperous region. But Texas is an island, and that's because of oil. Before oil transformed Texas it was like....Arkansas! Blah!

I googled Pew Research and found the following. Outside of the 16-19 age group, the unemployment rates are acceptable. And PEW points out that the number of people retiring and not looking for work skews the data.

Source: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...-jobs-numbers/

"But the unemployment rate isn’t the only, or even necessarily the best, indicator to come out of the monthly jobs report. Simply being out of work isn’t enough for a person to be counted as unemployed; he or she has to have been available to work and actively looking for work, or on temporary layoff. (As the BLS itself noted once upon a time, “Being employed is an observable experience, while being unemployed often lacks that same concreteness.”) In any given month, the unemployment rate can rise or fall depending on the interplay between how many people find or lose jobs and how many join or leave the active labor force.


For much of the current recovery, the unemployment rate fell even when relatively few people were finding jobs, because even more people were retiring, going back to school, or simply giving up the job hunt. In the past six years, more than 12.6 million Americans 16 and over (seasonally adjusted) have joined the ranks of those not counted as part of the labor force."

Unemployment Rates by Age