Needed: Accurate climate forecasts
by PAUL DRIESSEN, DAVID R. LEGATES November 24, 2014
President Obama's agreement with China is about as credible as his "affordable care" pronouncements.
Pleistocene glaciers repeatedly buried almost half of the Northern Hemisphere under a mile of ice. The Medieval Warm Period (~950-1250 AD) enriched agriculture and civilizations across Asia and Europe, while the Little Ice Age that followed (~1350-1850) brought widespread famines and disasters. The Dust Bowl upended lives and livelihoods for millions of Americans, while decades-long droughts vanquished once-thriving Anasazi and Mayan cultures, and flood and drought cycles repeatedly pounded African, Asian and Australian communities. Hurricanes and tornadoes have alsobattered states and countries throughout history, in numbers and intensities that have been impossible to pattern or predict.
But today we are supposed to believe climate variability is due to humans - and computer models can now forecast climate changes with amazing accuracy. These models and the alarmist scientists behind them say greenhouse gases will increasingly trigger more "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people, species and ecosystems," a recent UN report insists.
In reality, carbon dioxide's effect on devastating weather patterns is greatly overstated. We are near a 30-year low in hurricane energy (measured by the ACE index of "accumulated cyclone energy"), and tropical cyclone and storm activity has not increased globally over that period. In fact, as of November 18, it's been 3,310 days since a Category 3-5 hurricane hit the US mainland - by far the longest stretch since records began in 1900. This Atlantic hurricane season was the least active in 30 year
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