crazy vegas adventures

[pxmcc]

Originally Posted by SpiceItUp

Ok sure I'll give a serious response why not.

It's a trick question. The answer is neither, the rest of your questions are based upon that false premise. Martingales in probability theory only apply to a "fair game", i.e. one in which the Expectation Value=0 (odds of a win*amount won)

This doesn't really exist in a casino due to house edge but is fairly close enough to 50% on things like blackjack, red/black Roulete, or pass/don't pass craps bets for gambler's (flawed) purposes.

All your bets on everything else are not "fair games" do not fall into the Martingale Central Limit Theorem in which, over large numbers of repetitions in a fair game, the EV over time=0 and are normally distributed.

Either way, belief in betting systems is for suckers who are prone to committing Gambler's Fallacies and misunderstand probability theory, specifically the Law of Large Numbers. Every repetition's outcome is independent of the last, there is no such thing as hot/not hot only the natural result of variance causing "streaks". The result of the next repetition is not affected by the last. You're just as statistically likely to flip a coin and get 10 heads in a row, HHHHHHHHHH as you are to get HTTTHTHTHT yet people seem to believe that 10 heads in a row is much less likely or that if you get 9 heads in a row you're "due for a tail"

There is a large body of work out there mathematically disproving every progression betting system (modifying the next bet based upon the outcome of the last) in existence.

It looks like in part3 when playing red/black Roulette bets you butted up against the fundamental problem with the practical application of the Martingale betting system as opposed to how it looks on paper. It only has an EV=0 if you have an infinite risk tolerance, bank roll, and time...and no table limits. Lacking any of these causes eventual failure every time and exposure to very high risk vs reward the whole time.

If you sit down at a table to flip coins you have roughly a 1/256 chance of losing 8 flips in a row. Following the Martingale system and starting at a $25 bet you'd be risking $6400 on your 9th coin flip. It's not that improbable and even if you won your next coin flip you're only back to being up $25. I can't remember exactly but in Blackjack (which used to be my game a long time ago) I believe in something like every 15 hours of play at a full table you're statistically likely to experience a run of 10 losses in a row, playing solo or with only a couple of other people speeds that up significantly as the hands/hour increases dramatically. I used to play marathon sessions over long weekends where I'd easily play for 15 hours often at less than full tables. It seems improbable but it isn't really when you understand the odds and how they actually work against you.

Anti-martingale systems seem safer but really you still lose money at the same rate just with less negative and positive swings. As soon as you lose once you're back to where you started minus any minimum bets made. They will both win sometimes, but lose most times, and all will lose over the long run same as every other betting system.

Hey don't feel bad though, every casino newbie eventually hears about and tries a betting system. They seem logical, but aren't... the only people making money over any length of time on a betting system are the one's selling books on the subject

everything u said is correct spice. but i would argue (and i might be wrong) that when i had my crazy dice roll at the cortez, i did anti-martingale betting. as i hit numbers, i increased my bet sizes. it is important to increase bet sizes slowly, however. what i see people do all the time is to put their wins, lock stock and barrel, back into action. essentially, they are pocketing nothing. every roll, good, bad or ugly, ends with a 7. so the goal is to pocket as much money as possible before that happens. with a patient anti-martingale, you can take advantage of a hot roll.

the house advantage on roulette is about 5%, the same as a bet called the field bet on craps. i call the field bet a slow bleed, cause that's what it does to your bankroll. after my bad run on roulette, i never played roulette again except just to goof off. it is an unwinnable game, IMO.

finding any game in the casino with a positive expectation value is very hard. (notice i didn't say impossible.) the MIT guys did it on blackjack by counting cards. generally speaking, dice has a negative expectation value. however, based on several years of playing dice, i believe that skilled shooters can influence the dice. dice control-ish. what happened in the middle chapters was i won enough playing dice to buy a full size regulation dice table. then i made practicing shooting my hobby. what happened next was straight out of Pulp Fiction. i would write the middle chapters now but i'd probably get banned for an inadvertent mistake or for insulting Wakeup or Space. lol. so based on several years of playing dice, it is my opinion that skilled shooters can turn a game with a negative expectation value into one with a positive expectation value. what i won on the dice game after buying the regulation dice table would support that contention. however, no amount of good shooting can protect a gambler from catastrophic losses when applying a Martingale betting system. a single catastrophic loss at the dice tables i experienced would support that contention. that's because by definition, martingale style bets start to get really high at the worst possible time: when your shooting is totally off. so much for any positive expectation value. essentially, you are pressing the gas pedal when you are headed straight for a wall. not pretty.

if i had followed a martingale betting system during my hot roll, i never would have advanced past the table minimums, because every time you hit in a martingale, you go back to the table mins. instead of winning like 3700 on my crazy roll, i probably would have won around 400, if that.

[pxmcc]

Originally Posted by oilfieldscum

You went to vegas with haughtboys?

lol.

[pxmcc]

Originally Posted by oilfieldscum

You went to vegas with haughtboys?

lol.

[pxmcc]

excellent post spice.
actually i didn't mean for the question (was my dice betting M or anti-M style) to be a trick question. the credited answer was anti-M, but because your answer was technically correct, full credit and +1!
i considered my dice betting to be anti-martingale, since as i started hitting numbers, i increased my bet sizes and the number of bets i had on the table. this is classic anti-M betting, trying to capture profits from a hot run. however, anti-M betting should evolve slowly, with small incremental increases.

i always tell new players (and vets too if they're willing to listen), that every roll ends with a 7. the goal is to pocket as much in profit as possible before that happens. i see even vets sticking all their profits back on the table, so when the inevitable 7 comes, they get creamed instead of having a sweet pile of cash. i always say, "get ur money off the table and into your pocket as quickly as possible."

as to the question of how much i would have made if i had used M-style betting, the answer would be around 300. that's because every time you hit in an M-style progression, you start over at the min bet. since i was hitting numbers right and left, i would have stayed at 5$ flat and 50$ odds pretty much as my high bet. not until the other shooter 7ed out would i have been able to increase my bet size even to 10flat/100odds.

it is very difficult to find any betting opportunities that have a zero or positive expectation in a casino. notice i said very difficult, but not impossible. the MIT group (Bringing Down the House) proved that by counting cards at blackjack, a game with a negative expectation value can be modified to one with a positive expectation value.

having played dice for many years, i have come to the conclusion that shooting dice is a skill that some people (very few, granted) have mastered. anyone who talks about dice control is exaggerating. but claims of dice influencing are legitimate for some shooters. in fact, sufficient to cause the game, with appropriate betting, to develop a positive expectation value, IMHO. in the middle chapters, which i will probably omit for now in the interest of not getting banned, i describe how i hooked up with some outstanding shooters and made enough on that trip to buy a full-size regulation dice table, which allowed me the opportunity to practice shooting extensively. (it's now in my attic. getting it up there was a story all its own. lol) what happened next was straight out of pulp fiction. at some point after my point penalties recede, i will write the middle chapters.

the problem for me is impatience. i tend to get bored watching random shooters, so i generally bet against them. (called a Dont bet.) because of the house advantage, over the long term, such bets are a losing proposition. but for some reason, i'm ok with that.

[Guest021817-2]

Who in the fuck are you typing to?

Yourself?

Fuck me for clicking on this thread...

[All@thev]

Use your talents and write a book. We are here to hobby, not read the useless musings of the socially inept. Go find yourself a lonely female prisoner to read your ramblings. Or better yet, get a job or hobby.
lol

[pxmcc]

whoops just lost my draft. 1 more time, with feeling.

[SpiceItUp]

Here's an idea, why don't you just learn the guidelines and then you don't have to ever worry about getting banned? There are people here with thousands of posts who've never received even one point in infractions.

I don't buy your assertion that you're able to influence dice roll outcomes via your throwing technique man. That sounds like urban mythology, confirmation bias, small sample sizes, and bad data gathering to me. I'm willing to bet if you gathered some real substantial data you'd find that your results fall in line with the expected variance. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. If I'm not, you've discovered something truly special and should go win millions off of it....

[pxmcc]

The Final Chapter
So the 2nd night we're in the City of Sin, i text my nephew to help me decide if i should stay up or crash out. never heard back. got the full scoop from Rory the following day.

"so i'm hopping from one casino to the next looking for a good table. finally ended up at the MGM. got my favorite shooting spot, 2 right of stick. dropped my 1500 down to get some chips. table was a high roller table, 20$ min, 100k max flat, 3/4/5x odds.

it was a funny table. there was a huge black guy on the other side of the table with stacks of chips. must've had 500k easy there. next to him is this pimpin brother. black and white pinstripe suit, dressed to the nines.

table was ok, but a little choppy. guys would hit a point, then 7 out. when the dice came to me, i just put a min bet down to try to get a feel for the table. it felt right. i hit my first point on my 3rd roll. ended up hitting 2 more points before sevening out. the dice took a bad hop in the money, so i wasn't too upset. i was definitely in the groove.

next time dice came to me, i just focused on taking my time and throwing perfectly. was using a hardways set (a hardways set is where all the numbers are paired on the dice), 3s on top, 5s behind. i was setting hardways and hitting hardways. hit a hard 6 (33), hard 8 (44), plus a bunch of easy ways. i started out at table mins with full odds, and after i started hitting numbers, the huge black guy on the other side of the table with the monster chip stack started making monster bets. he was doing like 10k flat bets with full odds (30,000 on 10 or 4, 40000 on the 5 or 9, and 50,000 on the 6 or 8). i tried not to pay attention to how much money he was throwing down there. i just focused on hitting my numbers. the pit boss was really cool. he let me take all the time in the world before shooting. didn't rush me at all. by the time i hit my 4th point, the table was going ballistic. the huge black guy started upping his flat bets to 100k, with full odds. i couldn't even look at his bets, because it would have distracted me so much. i just focused on setting right and throwing perfectly. it was almost mindless. i was totally in the zone.

i start my 5th roll. come out roll was a 6. i'm getting ready to get set, and the huge black guy motions to me. im like, wtf? he walks around the table over to me and sticks a 5000 chip on my odds bet and a 1000 chip on my flat bet. he says, 'now you're playing with some money.' i barely mumbled out,'thank you sir.' so there i am with 6000 in front of me, and im tryin to hit the 6. well i got down to business. set 33 on top and 55 behind. hit an easy 8 first, i think it was a 53. close. i think the big dude had like 120k on the 8, so he was stoked. i tried again. took forever to set. the throw. both dice traveled in unison. perfect throw. i look up. the dealer barks out:'6 the hard way.' 33. jesus f'ing christ. works for me! dealer counts out 7000, puts it next to my bets. i pick it up and put it in my rails. drop another 1000 down, took full odds. rolled for another half hour before finally sevening out. counted my chips. 35,000 frickin greenbacks. the black dude made probably a million bucks on that one roll."

so i'm listening to this, slack jawed. I look over at D. Her eyes are bugging outta her face. i interject:"So you colored up, right?"
"yup i colored up."
"and you got the hell outta there, right?"

and he gives me this funny look. i know there's more to this.

"so the dealer counts out my chips. it came to like 35,500, give or take. i thank everyone. been real nice doin bizness whicha. (sorry this is an inside joke between rory and me.) i thank the huge black guy and ask him what his name is. he says 'marcus. marcus washington. and i play football.' and i said 'thank you marcus.' i throw the dealer a purple (500 chip) and wave to everyone as i cram the 35k into my pocket."

"what happened then?"

"so i'm walking towards the cage and i turn around and there's this dude running towards me. not threatening, i mean there was security everywhere, but like he's got something important to tell me. i realize it was the pimped out brother standing next to Marcus at the table. i stop and he comes up to me, wearing the most pimped out black n white pinstriped suit with some natty-ass matching shoes. and he says,"hey bro, what's your name?" and Rory tells him his name. and this pimped out brother says,"hey listen rory, your the best shooter on the table. we really need your ass to keep shootin." and rory says, "what's your name bro?" and this guy says his name is Deon. and Rory says,"listen Deon, i appreciate the compliment, but i just won almost 35,000, and i am done. retired. going home. calling it a day. but thanks for the compliment!"
and Deon is clearly getting flustered, cause he can see Rory's having none of it. he's like,"i'm begging you." and my nephew just shakes his head.
so Deon is like,"i will do anything man if u just come back to the table and keep shooting."
my nephew is not impressed.
so Deon pleads,"tell you what Rory. if you come back to the table, i will give you the shoes off my feet, my 1000$ custom tailored alligator-skin Fellini shoes."
and my nephew looks at Deon and says,"all i have to do is come back and shoot and you are going to give me your alligaor shoes?"
"thats right," replies Deon earnestly.

to be continued....

[Chlorine]

Wait a min...I'm confused were u shooting or "Rory"?

[pxmcc]

Originally Posted by Papageorgio

Wait a min...I'm confused were u shooting or "Rory"?

Rory. i was back at the hotel asleep. Rory is one of the best shooters i've seen. when the two of us are together, pit bosses get real nervous. we've been kicked out of like half the casinos on the strip because supposedly we're "professionals," whatever that means.

in the middle chapters, which i will wait to write until all my infraction points subside, i will describe some of the epic shit that i went through on the dice tables, frequently with Rory, sometimes alone.

[boardman]

There's a skill to throwing dice?

[pxmcc]

Originally Posted by boardman

There's a skill to throwing dice?

yes. dice players refer to throwing as shooting. the person with the dice is called the 'shooter.'

[idiot savant]

This thread sux. Thank goodness for the little button that takes you to the last post (IE - the end).

P - you are a really weird guy. Do you have any RL friends? Tell them. Please, stop posting.

Please.

Stop.

Don't reply - just walk away.

[pxmcc]

Originally Posted by SpiceItUp

Here's an idea, why don't you just learn the guidelines and then you don't have to ever worry about getting banned? There are people here with thousands of posts who've never received even one point in infractions.

I don't buy your assertion that you're able to influence dice roll outcomes via your throwing technique man. That sounds like urban mythology, confirmation bias, small sample sizes, and bad data gathering to me. I'm willing to bet if you gathered some real substantial data you'd find that your results fall in line with the expected variance. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. If I'm not, you've discovered something truly special and should go win millions off of it....

i tend to be a streaky shooter. my nephew Rory is more of a consistent shooter. when i'm hot, the chance of the observed outcomes happening by chance alone is very close to 0. for example, i have hit 10 back to back essentially 50/50 bets in a row, on a bet called a dont bet, on several occasions. (betting on the 7 coming up b4 a point number.) by chance alone, the odds of that happening by chance alone are 1/2^10, or about 1/1000. whenever i'm short-stacked, i

cashing in at the dice tables is not an easy proposition. it requires a substantial bankroll, appropriate betting, fortitude, fearlessness at the right time, canny observation of what is happening at the table, and making no serious blunders, especially in betting big at the wrong time or loss chasing.