The home stretch to November 8th

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Copy this and put down your final predictions:

Senate:

John Fetterman
Mehmet Oz

Rapheal Warnock
Herschel Walker

Adam Laxalt
Catherine Masto

Mark Kelly
Blake Masters

Tim Ryan
J.D. Vance

Ron Johnson
Mandela Barnes

Maggie Hassan
Don Bolduc

Michael Bennett
Joe O'Dea

Marco Rubio
Val Demmings

Ted Bud
Cheri Beasley

Governor:

Kari Lake
Katie Hobbs

Brian Kemp
Stacey Abrams

Tony Evers
Tim Michels

Gretchen Whitmer
Tudor Dixon

Steve Sisolak
Joe Lombardo

Laura Kelly
Derek Schmidt

Wes Moore
Dan Cox

Josh Shapiro
Doug Mastriano

Ron DeSantis
Charlie Crist

Bonus

Amanda Adkins
Sharice Davids

[HedonistForever]

I don't know enough about some of those people but I'll stand by my prediction that Republicans will win 80% of all "toss ups" at election time and Republicans will take the House and Senate by 2

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Copy this and put down your final predictions:

Senate:

John Fetterman
Mehmet Oz Winner

Rapheal Warnock
Herschel Walker Winner

Adam Laxalt Winner
Catherine Masto

Mark Kelly
Blake Masters Winner

Tim Ryan
J.D. Vance Winner

Ron Johnson Winner
Mandela Barnes

Maggie Hassan Winner
Don Bolduc

Michael Bennett Winner
Joe O'Dea

Marco Rubio Winner
Val Demmings

Ted Bud Winner
Cheri Beasley

Governor:

Kari Lake Winner
Katie Hobbs

Brian Kemp Winner
Stacey Abrams

Tony Evers Winner
Tim Michels

Gretchen Whitmer
Tudor Dixon Winner

Steve Sisolak
Joe Lombardo Winner

Laura Kelly
Derek Schmidt Winner

Wes Moore Winner
Dan Cox

Josh Shapiro Winner
Doug Mastriano

Ron DeSantis Winner
Charlie Crist

Bonus

Amanda Adkins Winner
Sharice Davids

Net gain of 4-5 in the Senate for GOP
Net gain of 30-35 in the House for the GOP
Net gain of 3-4 in governors for the GOP

[Precious_b]

Seeing there are no Texas ones there, i'll just state the Tejas mantra: Vote early. Vote often.

[ICU 812]

From what I hear on the (gasp) radio, and from what I can deduce from mainstream news outlets, the liberal seem somewhat spooked about the election overall.

That they have spent so much money on defeating some indeviduals says they are worried. Bringing in the big names in other campaigns is alao telling.

One conservative radio personality regularly references betting on the election results in Europe and Vegas as indicators of a general Republican win.



We shall all see what we shall see.

[ICU 812]

Another thought:

If there is in fact a general Republican win in November, will we see the same deeply disturbed mental behavior from liberals that we saw after the 2016 election? Will the concept of "Safe Spaces" on college campuses return? Will employers have to bring in emotional support dogs to the workplace along with counselors?

More importantly: Will we have solid election results by breakfast time on Nov 9th?

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Net gain of 4-5 in the Senate for GOP
Net gain of 30-35 in the House for the GOP
Net gain of 3-4 in governors for the GOP

You are definitely tilting red. The only Republican Senate seat I see as possibly flipping is Pennsylvania. It will be close. Meanwhile, Democratic seats in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada are in jeopardy. Early voting has been strong which shows a continued interest in the elections, as it was in 2018 and 2020. That is good. I disagree with your predictions as I believe they are high on the number of seats Republicans will gain in both the House and Senate. I predict Kelly wins in Arizona and hopefully Warnock wins in Georgia. I still think a split in the Senate is very likely.

You predict a gain of 30-35 seats in the House which seems rather high, although it is safe to say Republicans will take control of the House. Republicans did better than expected in 2020 so the number of vulnerable Democratic House seats in 2022 is not as high. The Cook Political Report and FOX News only have 33 seats total as toss-up. And that is on the high side compared to other forecasts. I would put the Republican gains at aboout 25 max.

My predictions from 2020:

Biden wins. Democrats maintain control of the House but lose seats. Democrats tie up the Senate.

My predictions from 2018:

Democrats take control of the House. Republicans pick up 1 seat in the Senate (they picked up 2 when Rick Scott won in Florida by .2%). O'Rourke loses to Cruz in Texas but by much less than the Trump 2016 victory margin of 9%. Cruz won by 2.6%.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by ICU 812

Another thought:

If there is in fact a general Republican win in November, will we see the same deeply disturbed mental behavior from liberals that we saw after the 2016 election? Will the concept of "Safe Spaces" on college campuses return? Will employers have to bring in emotional support dogs to the workplace along with counselors?

More importantly: Will we have solid election results by breakfast time on Nov 9th?

To answer your last question first -- probably not. In some states counting of mail-in votes does not even begin until polls close. And that process is very time consuming.

Regarding your first comments -- will we see the same non-acceptance of the results from Republicans if Democrats win in certain states? Certainly many people of the left were upset by the election results in 2016 but few denied the legitimacy of Trump's victory.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by ICU 812

Another thought:

If there is in fact a general Republican win in November, will we see the same deeply disturbed mental behavior from liberals that we saw after the 2016 election? Will the concept of "Safe Spaces" on college campuses return? Will employers have to bring in emotional support dogs to the workplace along with counselors?

More importantly: Will we have solid election results by breakfast time on Nov 9th?

We know God damn good and well that the Captial is not a safe space when Trump lovers lose!

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by WTF

We know God damn good and well that the Captial is not a safe space when Trump lovers lose!

Thanks, WTF. I'll take that under advisement. Now can you please tell everyone the difference between Captial and Capital and Capitol?

Stay safe out there!

[ICU 812]

Lusty: I have got to (gasp) side with WTF on that. I have the same disfunction when it comes to spelling, compounded by fat fingers and age-related vision issues.

BTW: GHOTI is phonetic spelling for "FISHH".

GH= f sound as in laugh
O= i sound as in women
TI= sh sound as in nation

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

To answer your last question first -- probably not. In some states counting of mail-in votes does not even begin until polls close. And that process is very time consuming.

Regarding your first comments -- will we see the same non-acceptance of the results from Republicans if Democrats win in certain states? Certainly many people of the left were upset by the election results in 2016 but few denied the legitimacy of Trump's victory.

Damn! I almost choked on that one. Maybe you should have added "in public" because I'll bet every single one of them said that in private and the two biggest denier's were John Lewis and Hillary who repeat that to this day but you know the rules "Trump can't do it but Democrats can".


Just like Democrats can contest seating electors like they did in 2001,2005, 2017 but when a Republican does it "they have violated their Constitutional oath to protect and defend the Constitution". Ignorance or hypocrites? Hard to tell.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

Damn! I almost choked on that one. Maybe you should have added "in public" because I'll bet every single one of them said that in private and the two biggest denier's were John Lewis and Hillary who repeat that to this day but you know the rules "Trump can't do it but Democrats can".

Just like Democrats can contest seating electors like they did in 2001,2005, 2017 but when a Republican does it "they have violated their Constitutional oath to protect and defend the Constitution". Ignorance or hypocrites? Hard to tell.

On November 9, 2016 Hillary Clinton conceded the election to Donald Trump. "Hillary Clinton conceded the White House race to President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday morning, saying she hoped "he will be a successful president for all Americans."

John Lewis was correct in his claim that Russia interfered in the 2016 election but few people believe the interference impacted the election. I certainly do not. Many protested Trump's election but, I repeat, few denied Trump was the legitimate victor.

I must have missed it. How many lawsuits were filed by Democrats claiming fraud cost Hillary the election? Was there a protest where thousands of people descended on the Capitol?

But to be honest you have taken this thread off-subject. Please respect Barleycorn.

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

On November 9, 2016 Hillary Clinton conceded the election to Donald Trump. "Hillary Clinton conceded the White House race to President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday morning, saying she hoped "he will be a successful president for all Americans."

John Lewis was correct in his claim that Russia interfered in the 2016 election but few people believe the interference impacted the election. I certainly do not. Many protested Trump's election but, I repeat, few denied Trump was the legitimate victor.

I must have missed it. How many lawsuits were filed by Democrats claiming fraud cost Hillary the election? Was there a protest where thousands of people descended on the Capitol?

But to be honest you have taken this thread off-subject. Please respect Barleycorn.

Hillary may have belatedly admitted to defeat but within six months, she was out saying the election was stolen due to Russian interference and she continued to say that for the next 3 1/2 years. She is out there now saying that the GOP was going to steal this election and 2024.

Now, as to tilting red, these are not all the races. These are the competitive races. According to Real Politic, there are 15 house seats up for grabs but that is getting down into the weeds. The important and surprising take away is how many competitive races there are that should have been democrats wins by default. The Governor of New York might by knocked off by a republican? Say it ain't so. A senator from Washington, a democrat, may be capped by a new republican? It can't be...but it is.

Only 7 days left.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Hillary may have belatedly admitted to defeat but within six months, she was out saying the election was stolen due to Russian interference and she continued to say that for the next 3 1/2 years. She is out there now saying that the GOP was going to steal this election and 2024.

Now, as to tilting red, these are not all the races. These are the competitive races. According to Real Politic, there are 15 house seats up for grabs but that is getting down into the weeds. The important and surprising take away is how many competitive races there are that should have been democrats wins by default. The Governor of New York might by knocked off by a republican? Say it ain't so. A senator from Washington, a democrat, may be capped by a new republican? It can't be...but it is.

Only 7 days left.

While there is truth to the claim that there was Russian interfreence in the 2016 election, I believe the impact was minor. Trump won a fair election.

You are correct in your analysis of the current outlook for next Tuesday. Supposedly safe Democratic seats are in jeopardy. You predicted Republicans would pick up 30-35 House seats. Does not seem realistic. You predicted a gain of 4-5 Senate seats. Again, does not seem realistic. I'm interested in which 4 Democratic Senate seats you see flipping.

Early voting in Texas has fallen behind 2018 levels. Early voting is usually an indicator of Democratic strength so that is not good for Democrats.