Hurricane gives Romney the popular vote?

[Guest032516]

Is it possible Hurricane Sandy may make it more likely Mitt wins the popular vote and Obama wins the Electoral College?

It is no secret the East Coast, particularly from DC northward skews Democratic.

So if Hurricane Sandy is a vicious Nor-easter and hits land on Monday and lasts well into Tuesday, there could be poor voter turnout in those states. The storm will suppress the vote for both sides, so Obama will still take those states, but with smaller absolute numbers.

For example, let's say Obama takes State X 60%-40% and 2 million people normally vote in State X. So, Obama would get 1.2 million and Romney would get 800,000, an edge of 400,000 for Obama. But if only 1 million people go out to vote due to the hurricane, Obama still wins 60-40, but he gets 600,000 and Romney gets 400,000, reducing Obama's edge to 200,000.

Meanwhile, turnout in the states in the Midwest, West and South where Romney is supposed to win are unaffected.

So while the Electoral College results won't change, Obama may lose a greater number of overall votes nationwide than Romney.

And we get a replay of 2000, with Obama in the place of Bush and Romney in the place of Gore.

Does anyone else think it is now more likely?

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by ExNYer

Is is possible Hurricane Sandy may make it more likely Mitt wins the popular vote and Obama wins the Electoral College?

It is no secret the East Coast, particularly from DC northward skews Democratic.

So if Hurricane Sandy is a vicious Nor-easter and hits land on Monday and lasts well into Tuesday, there could be poor voter turnout in those states. The storm will suppress the vote for both sides, so Obama will still take those states, but with smaller absolute numbers.

For example, let's say Obama takes State X 60%-40% and 2 million people normally vote in State X. So, Obama would get 1.2 million and Romney would get 800,000, an edge of 400,000 for Obama. But if only 1 million people go out to vote due to the hurricane, Obama still wins 60-40, but he gets 600,000 and Romney gets 400,000, reducing Obama's edge to 200,000.

Meanwhile, turnout in the states in the Midwest, West and South where Romney is supposed to win are unaffected.

So while the Electoral College results won't change, Obama may lose a greater number of overall votes nationwide than Romney.

And we get a replay of 2000, with Obama in the place of Bush and Romney in the place of Gore.

Does anyone else think it is now more likely?

If Obama wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College vote, the big cities will burn.

[Guest032516]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

If Obama wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College vote, the big cities will burn.

After which they will demand federal aid to re-build.

However, part of me hopes that Obama wins loses the popular vote and wins only the Electoral College.

That way we don't have to listen to a bunch of whiny Dems alleging that the Electoral college is some kind of conspiracy to keep the out of power.

Conservatives can also say "Now we're even".

[I B Hankering]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

If Obama wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College vote, the big cities will burn.

Not Philadelphia and New York City -- they'll be too wet!

Originally Posted by ExNYer

Conservatives can also say "Now we're even".

[JD Barleycorn]

Historically the GOP voters have always been more hardcore about voting than democrats. You know, the difference between a limo and waiting for the bus in bad weather. Also the western half of New York and Pennsylvania vote more GOP than democrat. I don't know who is ultimately responsible for the weather but maybe someone had a plan? Romney carries New York and Pennsylvania!

[Guest032516]

Originally Posted by JD Barleycorn

Historically the GOP voters have always been more hardcore about voting than democrats. You know, the difference between a limo and waiting for the bus in bad weather. Also the western half of New York and Pennsylvania vote more GOP than democrat. I don't know who is ultimately responsible for the weather but maybe someone had a plan? Romney carries New York and Pennsylvania!

Pennsylvania, maybe.

New York, never. There aren't that many people in western NY.

There is also a large Republican contingent on Long Island. And they will be getting shit-hammered by the weather.

[cptjohnstone]

not sure if this is true of not but on Fox the other day, they said if the electoral vote ends in a tie, the house would vote Romney in and the senate would vote Biden in

can you image what closet Bidens office would be in?

[Guest032516]

Originally Posted by cptjohnstone

not sure if this is true of not but on Fox the other day, they said if the electoral vote ends in a tie, the house would vote Romney in and the senate would vote Biden in

can you image what closet Bidens office would be in?

I think if there is a tie in the Electoral College, both houses will vote for the winner of the popular vote, just to avoid another Bush-Gore debacle and show national unity.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by cptjohnstone

not sure if this is true of not but on Fox the other day, they said if the electoral vote ends in a tie, the house would vote Romney in and the senate would vote Biden in

can you image what closet Bidens office would be in?

If it is a tie,the HOUSE votes in the President and the SENATE votes in the VP.

The newly elected House and Senate.

So if the House were to go Dem, Obama would be reelected, if not Romney is the man.

[CuteOldGuy]

WPF, please google a little better. In the House, each state gets one (1) vote for President. They will have to caucus, and decide on who to give their one (1) vote to. That means that California and Wyoming have an equal vote. So even if the House were to go Democrat, which is very unlikely, that doesn't mean that 26 states with majority Republican delegations wouldn't carry the day for Romney. There are a lot of small Republican states.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by ExNYer

Is it possible Hurricane Sandy may make it more likely Mitt wins the popular vote and Obama wins the Electoral College?...


...Does anyone else think it is now more likely?

Yes, absolutely.

A few probabilists have run simulations indicating that the chances of a Romney popular vote win coupled with an electoral loss are far from zero; perhaps in the 2-3% range (depending on whose polls and models you believe) -- since the Electoral College outlook is relatively favorable for Obama. A severe, vote-suppressing storm would only affect large population centers in "blue" states, so there's virtually no chance that it would affect the Electoral College tally. (At least I assume that's the case. But what about Philadelphia, since Pennsylvania's "blueness" is fairly weak?) However, a big storm could significantly increase the probablility that Romney would garner a popular vote edge, since it would create a fair shot at turning what might otherwise have been a narrow popular vote loss into a narrow "win."

Originally Posted by cptjohnstone

not sure if this is true of not but on Fox the other day, they said if the electoral vote ends in a tie, the house would vote Romney in and the senate would vote Biden in

Yup, but in something of a roundabout way!

New York's "hobbyist former governor" (aka client #9) explains it thusly:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/spitzer/2...president.html

Originally Posted by JD Barleycorn

Romney carries New York and Pennsylvania!

Pennsylvania? Well, maybe. It's not out of the question.

New York?

Geez! Can I have some of what you've been drinking?

[CuteOldGuy]

You people are living under the illusion that Democrats have to show up for their votes to be counted in those areas. The "popular" vote will be the same whether they show up or not. Hell, a lot of them are already dead!

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by CuteOldGuy

You people are living under the illusion that Democrats have to show up for their votes to be counted in those areas. The "popular" vote will be the same whether they show up or not. Hell, a lot of them are already dead!

"Landslide Lyndon" was said to have written the playbook way back in 1948! (Of course, he really only followed the examples set earlier by a few others.)

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Why_was_Ly...ndslide_Lyndon

[nevergaveitathought]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

A few probabilists have run simulations indicating that the chances of a Romney popular vote win coupled with an electoral loss are far from zero

With Romney up 5 in national polls it would seem strange that battle ground states would remain battle ground in actual voting but anything is possible... I've seem very strange things

[Guest032516]

Well the storm will last into Wednesday in parts of NE and there will be huge power outages that will take days to repair.

But the area should be recovered in time for election. So, I think the effect may be minimal.

I was one projection saying a possibility of 2 feet of snow in the high elevations of the Appalachians in WV and NC.

In OCTOBER!!!