Harris is up in 3/7 battleground states

[eyecu2]

Recent quinnipiac poll has Harris up six points over Trump in Pennsylvania five points in Michigan and one point in Wisconsin.

Those three fall to Harris and it's game over for the red hats.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3905

[Yssup Rider]

North Carolina is also looking better every day for Harris.

For all you ECCIE/ASPD oldtimers - Wisconsin is still trending Romney.

[DEAR_JOHN]

Playing nice for now.

Polls mean nothing right now. Let's move to late October and see what happens. For example on youtube there are tons of videos showing Trump wins. They make me have a feel good moment, but that's all it is. I wouldn't put cold hard cash on it.

Polls are like a weather news cast with a hurricane in the middle of the Gulf. 2 or 3 models show a cat 1 hitting Galveston, while a few other models show the storm hitting Corpus or Lake Charles. People tend to click on different channels until they find hurricane forecasts that benefits them. Same for polls, I prefer Trafalgar while another person likes Fox, NY Times, or Quinnapiac polls.

As far as the internet goes, I like 538 and https://www.realclearpolling.com/.

[Tiny]

The Real Clear Polling averages have Harris up in four of seven battleground states. And as Yssup alludes, Trump is only up by 0.1% in North Carolina. Here's a run down.

Arizona Trump +1.6%
Georgia Trump +1.7%
North Carolina Trump +0.1%
Nevada Harris +0.2%
Pennsylvania Harris +1.0%
Michigan Harris +1.7%
Wisconsin Harris +1.2%

Trump outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020. I think Harris will outperform them this time around. That's why I'm kissing up to you guys on the left. When the purges come I hope you'll spare my life. If it's up to Blackman I'll be the first to go.

[Lucas McCain]

Originally Posted by eyecu2

Recent quinnipiac poll has Harris up six points over Trump in Pennsylvania five points in Michigan and one point in Wisconsin.

Those three fall to Harris and it's game over for the red hats.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3905

I see Harris brought out the big gun, Oprah tonight in Michigan. I don't get Oprah's extreme popularity, but damn women love that woman. I used to ask my sister, "what the fuck is so interesting about her shows that makes you women love her so damn much?" She would just laugh and shrug and say, "I don't know. She's just awesome." Whatever. I guess Oprah is just the chick whisperer.

Oh well, Trump can probably officially kiss Michigan goodbye now.

[txdot-guy]

Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

I see Harris brought out the big gun, Oprah tonight in Michigan. I don't get Oprah's extreme popularity, but damn women love that woman. I used to ask my sister, "what the fuck is so interesting about her shows that makes you women love her so damn much?" She would just laugh and shrug and say, "I don't know. She's just awesome." Whatever. I guess Oprah is just the chick whisperer.

Oh well, Trump can probably kiss Michigan goodbye.

IMHO Oprah is vastly overrated. She's famous for helping Obama win the Primary in 2008 by getting the Black vote out for him instead of Clinton. I'm not sure she can sway a presidential election but things are so close she might be able to push things over in some down ballot races.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The Real Clear Polling averages have Harris up in four of seven battleground states. And as Yssup alludes, Trump is only up by 0.1% in North Carolina. Here's a run down.

Arizona Trump +1.6%
Georgia Trump +1.7%
North Carolina Trump +0.1%
Nevada Harris +0.2%
Pennsylvania Harris +1.0%
Michigan Harris +1.7%
Wisconsin Harris +1.2%

Trump outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020. I think Harris will outperform them this time around. That's why I'm kissing up to you guys on the left. When the purges come I hope you'll spare my life. If it's up to Blackman I'll be the first to go.

+1

Good work Tiny. If Harris takes just Penn, Mich, Wisc and Nev she will get to 270 electoral college votes and the ballgame is over.

Are you going to do the predict the electoral college contest for the 2024 election?

[DEAR_JOHN]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

+1

Good work Tiny. If Harris takes just Penn, Mich, Wisc and Nev she will get to 270 electoral college votes and the ballgame is over.

Are you going to do the predict the electoral college contest for the 2024 election?

And if Trump wins PA, NC, GA and holds the states he's favored in, then MI, WI, NV, and AZ won't even matter. The election is over before they close voting on the west coast.

[eyecu2]

Really it's all about Pa. Here is an honest admission...I took a lady friend who is a conservative to the infamous Trump house, and they give out free hats , shirts and yard signs to anyone. It's actually pretty smart to get the sideline viewers and voters engaged with some free shit. Anyway, it was skeevy being in there and representative Rossi was there as was a about 40 ppl. My friend calls me a 'Grump' and so I jokingly asked if they had any shirts that have Grump on them instead of Trump....the look on the faces were like high school rivals looking at each other at the football stadium.

I explained my reason and there were a few laughs but a cpl ppl were less than smiley.

That's ok, I actually took a cpl extra hats to give a few MAGA friends, would never expect me to give them something like that.

The point of which is it's strictly politics, and friendships can withstand the differences between parties, although you will never see me wearing one of those hats, I'll certainly give them away to those who appreciate them.

If you haven't made it out to the Trump house and you are a fan of 45, you need to do it just to see how absurd it is- in all its gaudy glory

[DEAR_JOHN]

Originally Posted by eyecu2

Really it's all about Pa. Here is an honest admission...I took a lady friend who is a conservative to the infamous Trump house, and they give out free hats , shirts and yard signs to anyone. It's actually pretty smart to get the sideline viewers and voters engaged with some free shit. Anyway, it was skeevy being in there and representative Rossi was there as was a about 40 ppl. My friend calls me a 'Grump' and so I jokingly asked if they had any shirts that have Grump on them instead of Trump....the look on the faces were like high school rivals looking at each other at the football stadium.

I explained my reason and there were a few laughs but a cpl ppl were less than smiley.

That's ok, I actually took a cpl extra hats to give a few MAGA friends, would never expect me to give them something like that.

The point of which is it's strictly politics, and friendships can withstand the differences between parties, although you will never see me wearing one of those hats, I'll certainly give them away to those who appreciate them.

If you haven't made it out to the Trump house and you are a fan of 45, you need to do it just to see how absurd it is- in all its gaudy glory

hmmmmm Trump house sounds interesting. Please enlighten me on how Trump house has anything to do with Harris being up in 3/7 battleground states.

Back on topic, about harris being up in 3/7 battleground states, it means nothing right now. Wait until late October and let's see what the polls have to say. Even the betting line in Vegas is changing weekly, and again, means nothing until late October. One week may trend harris, then the next may trend Trump. Frankly she needs to stay in her basement, she didn't look very good on the Oprah interview and talk about softball questions.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN

hmmmmm Trump house sounds interesting. Please enlighten me on how Trump house has anything to do with Harris being up in 3/7 battleground states.

Back on topic, about harris being up in 3/7 battleground states, it means nothing right now. Wait until late October and let's see what the polls have to say. Even the betting line in Vegas is changing weekly, and again, means nothing until late October. One week may trend harris, then the next may trend Trump. Frankly she needs to stay in her basement, she didn't look very good on the Oprah interview and talk about softball questions.

The polls are scary because in both 2016 and 2020 they underestimated Trump's strength. THe pollsters have tried to correct their "errors" but we won't know until election day if they have done so.

On the other hand, outside of the polls, most predicting th 2024 election favor Harris. Subject to change.

Nate Silver's model, which had previously supported a Trump victory in November has shifted to a Harris victory.

https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver...-trump-1957027

538 is predicting a Harris victory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Alan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections predicts a Harris victory.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...t/75159621007/

All the betting odds favor Harris.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/bet...2024/president

The model from The Economist gives Harris a 60% chance of victory.

https://www.economist.com/interactiv...odel/president

,

[farmstud60]

I wish they would just quit reporting on poll numbers and actually report the news. Most of the polls aren't that accurate and nation wide polls are meaningless with the Electoral College.

[DEAR_JOHN]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

I wish they would just quit reporting on poll numbers and actually report the news. Most of the polls aren't that accurate and nation wide polls are meaningless with the Electoral College.

[Yssup Rider]

Seems like we sure heard a lot about poll numbers around here when Trump was leading Biden. In fact, I recall one thread, ahem, that provided us a near daily update.

The fact that the enthusiasm for the upcoming election has skyrocketed is significant.

[1blackman1]

Interesting that thread isn’t continuing like the 100 page bullshit threads about nothing.