The popular vote polls are all well and good, but in the end, don't matter. In reality, only 538 people get to vote for President--the presidential electors. As we have been pointing out since
June 4th, if Obama wins the states the Democrats have won five times in a row, which seems quite likely, he has a base of 242 electoral votes. He also seems likely to win Nevada and New Mexico, bringing him to 253. How might he get the remaining 17? The scenarios are below. The swing states being fought over and the EVs are: Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4).
State(s) Total EVs Florida 282 Ohio 271 North Carolina + any other swing state ≥ 272 Virginia + any other swing state except New Hampshire ≥ 272 Colorado + Iowa + New Hampshire 272
Romney's job is to make sure that none of these scenarios hold. This means he must win Florida and Ohio and probably North Carolina. He can lose Virginia, provided that he wins every other swing state. But even if he wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, he is still not home free. Even under these circumstances, he needs to win one of Colorado, Iowa, or New Hampshire. Of course, if he manages to win one of the normally blue states, like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, he gets other routes to 270, but these seem unlikely