How Do You See The Economy

[Fast Gunn]

How do you folks see the economy in the US?

All of us, I think, have friends who in spite of having degrees and credentials have been unable to find work.

Ladies at different spa have confessed to me that their business has been much too slow.

However, some of my friends who had been out of work for over a year have begun telling me that they have finally found work! Great news!

Personally, I see definite signs that the economy is improving. Do the gentlemen see that too?

Ladies, how do you see the economic situation?

[TexTushHog]

Improving, yes. Swiftly, no. But improving. And it will be a jobless recovery for a while, particularly for those at the lower end of the socioeconomic ladder.

[heresy]

Extremely mild recovery. Bailout was an insult to average working Americans.

[Mokoa]

I have not seen any significant signs of improvement.

And we are years from being anywhere near out of the woods.

[guest041110]

Originally Posted by Mokoa

I have not seen any significant signs of improvement.

And we are years from being anywhere near out of the woods.

Yep that is a fact that a lot of folks are having/will have a hard time accepting. We have yet to hit bottom and it will get worse. The economics just aren't there at this time and I agree with the jobless recovery comments. With the debt being as high as it is coupled with the foreign ownership of our debt... get ready, it's coming because inflation is just around the corner which has not hit yet.

[guest051312]

No improvement really, all the bailout money did was keep the very wealthy at the same level. Congress worked all year on health care only and got no where. Our housing industry is one of the biggest empolyers, until it gets back on it's feet we won't see a recovery. And like Lonesome said, hang on for inflation it's coming.

[DFW5Traveler]

Originally Posted by LonesomeDove

Yep that is a fact that a lot of folks are having/will have a hard time accepting. We have yet to hit bottom and it will get worse. The economics just aren't there at this time and I agree with the jobless recovery comments. With the debt being as high as it is coupled with the foreign ownership of our debt... get ready, it's coming because inflation is just around the corner which has not hit yet.

Foreign debt + foreign investment + record deficit + tax increases = high inflation, fewer jobs, and mass migrations

Originally Posted by the prez paraphrased;

I'm 'agnostic' about middle class tax increases.

CFIUS is allowing more and more foreign ownership where profit is being invested less and less in the US. My job went to canada 3 months ago after a foreigner bought the company where I was employeed and the congressman that sat on the CFIUS comittee is now on the board of directors of the foreign company, imagine that!!!

[slicktommy]

I’m no expert, but we are currently at a mid point and the bottom will be a year or more out. Looking at collapse of European/American credit market. The bail outs where a nothing more than rapeing of American Tax payers.

[NormalBob]

Every month there are fewer people employed then the month before (December and the temp Christmas hiring a bare exception). The only reason the unemployment rate has declined is because so many more people quit looking for jobs.

The economy cannot get better without increases in private sector employment and there is no reason to be optimistic about that for the foreseeable future.

[EmilyHemingway]

Two words: Helicoptor Ben. FedRes policy is raising speculations that we're beginning the upswing of yet another housing bubble. Financials got themselves in a hell of a stew over high-risk lending, but they also made an insane amount of money doing so and were given even more insame amounts of money to get them out of trouble. I see credit unfreezing as the financials decide it's a win-win proposition, some employment gains in construction, three cheers for Obamanomics and Bernanke, and then an even deeper collapse a few months later. Inevitable - housing price increases still won't be value-based, merely second verse, same as the first.

One step forward, two steps back. Rinse and repeat until everyone learns there's no quick fix to a problem that spent a decade simmering.

[hobbie]

I do not believe we have not seen the bottom of the crises yet. We have been through the first half which was the residential market (still going on), but we are now looking at the commercial real estate market constricting. The one thing you have to remember is the results we are facing now are from previous political mistakes and it has only been effecting us for not quite two years, but it took almost a decade for it to develop into a crises and will take several more years for us to get through it.

The beginning was with the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999. This act overturned the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 and allowed banks to expand and purchase Brokerage houses and get into the insurance business. This along with artificially low interest rates which allowed banks and wall street to go crazy buying other companies set up the "To Big To Fail" companies we have today. I did not like the bail out at all, but since we let them get so big without any oversight or regulations there was no choice . The Recession would be even deeper then it is today if this was not done, meaning even less jobs, higher unemployment, less tax base, even more debt, etc. (if anyone is to blame it is the Washington lobbyist who represented the financial institutions, Banks, Wall Street, and the politicians who were in office at the time). Big business which are publicly owned have only one duty, that is to make as much money for their Stock Holders as they can even if it is detrimental to the country economy, and lets face it there is a lot of greed out there and it also increased the now famous Bounces. Thus we have had a large exodus of jobs going overseas due to lower wages so in turn higher profits. Even previous top economist of an administration stated (I believe 2001) that "...outsourcing of U.S. service jobs to workers overseas is good for the nation's economy". At the time the economy was booming even though it was a False economy the politicians wanted to ride it out so they looked good while in office. (the reason for this long explanation is it hits home with me, I was working in NY durning this period in the middle of it all, we all saw it coming, but the companies would chastised anyone if anything negative was said).

So what I am saying is it took us a while to get here and it will take a while to get out of it.

[TheWanderer]

I work in the financial industry for a company that is a lender to consumers. We have a lot of high level meetings in which we review various economic indicators to try to determine the best direction to take. Our company is sometimes viewed by economic analysts as a barometer for the economy. In other words, our performance directly reflects the strength or weakness of the consumer.
So far in 2010, we have an uptick in performance over both 2009 and 2008. I feel that we have hit close to bottom, but there are a number of things as mentioned on the board that could drive things back down. I do feel that the economy will stay at this level for some time and it will be a slow uphill climb out of this which may last for several more years.

[DFW5Traveler]

One item is a fluke, two an anomoly, but dozens of examples over decades is not just a pattern it is a PLAN.

The repeal of Glass-Steagle is only a part of the problem. The DOE was started by Carter to curb foreign oil purchases and it's more than doubled. Carter also started the beginnings of the housing bubble with the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 and Clinton doubled down on the bubble with the The Fair Housing Act and the Equal Credit Opportunity Act in July 1993. You are right about the residential real estate and we have seen nothing yet when it comes to the commercial real estate.

Since we know history repeats itself, just look at the stock market crash of 1929. There was definatley an uptick in the market and economy after the crash. It was 1932 before the Great Depression was in full swing.

[UNDER THE RADAR]

You here of all the unemployed, and the negitive economic indicators, but when you are out in public you could not tell people are on hard times. Go out to eat on a Friday, or Saturday night there are lines of people waiting at all of the top dollar restaurants. Go to the casinos down on the gulf coast, most of the big ones Hard Rock, Beau Rivage, etc. are packed with people gambling, eating, and partying at the clubs. Look at all the sports teams, football especially, there is no shortage of teams with waiting list to buy season tickets, this is true for most major college teams as well, and the cost to go to a game, parking $25+, beer $10+, hot dog $7 etc. etc., a family of 4 in average seating cost close to $500 bucks/game. So the way I see the economy is that people have the money to spend when and where they want to spend it. What is lost in all the economic talk is the overall population numbers, it is hard to believe how many people you have out here across america participating in the economy day in and day out. For some it may be hardship, but for others there is no end to the spending.

[guest051312]

The big thing I see is in the real estate market, people are not buying new homes. With so many foreclosures out there and more coming, nobody is building new homes. Credit is really tight to get a home loan you need a better than perfect credit score.
I agree all this goes way back to Carter and Clinton admin's, but Bush didn't do anything to correct it when they saw it coming in his first term.( they blame it on congress not helping them) Joe Biden made a great statement last year. "our country is going into bankruptcy, we need to spend more money to save it" meaning more debt, try that in on a real business and see where that gets you. BANKRUPTCY