Why are Gallup’s findings worse for Dems?

[Sexyeccentric1]

Washington Post Article

Posted at 11:11 AM ET, 04/18/2012 Why are Gallup’s findings worse for Dems?

By Greg Sargent

A number of people have asked that question, in light of the most recent batch of polling, in which Gallup’s tracking finds Mitt Romney leading Obama, while multiple other polls find Obama with varying leads.
Ron Brownstein offers a pretty persuasive explanation for the divergence:

Four recent national polls, including three released in the past 24 hours, generally show the electorate dividing between President Obama and Mitt Romney along lines of class, gender and race familiar from the 2008 race.

The surveys-from ABC and the Washington Post; the Pew Research Center; CNN/ORC; and the first Gallup tracking poll, diverge in their overall results. The first three polls show Obama leading by seven, four and nine percentage points respectively; the first Gallup track placed Romney up by two percentage points.

But the Gallup track, which is conducted among registered voters, has a sample that looks much more like the electorate in 2010 than the voting population that is likely to turn out in 2012: only 22 percent of the Gallup survey was non-white, according to figures the organization provided to Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. That was close to the non-white share of the vote in 2010 (23 percent), but in 2008, minorities comprised 26 percent of all voters, according to exit polls; the Obama campaign, and other analysts, project the minority share of the vote will increase to 28 percent in 2012. In its survey, Pew, for instance, puts the non-white share at 25 percent

Brownstein’s conclusion, from all the polling:

Even with their modest variations, these four surveys paint a similar picture. Obama is largely holding the minority and college-educated white women who comprise two pillars of the modern Democratic base (along with young people.) But he is facing erosion among blue-collar white men and struggling to maintain even his modest 2008 support among the two swing quadrants in the white electorate: the college-plus white men and non-college white women. For the moment, that division of allegiances is enough to provide Obama an overall advantage.

The other thing to keep in mind is that demographic shifts within some of the key battleground states themselves could boost the vote share of minority voters, and reduce the vote share of blue collar whites, in those battlegrounds. The details on that can be found in a recent study by the Center for American Progress.
Of course, all this is way premature, and pollsters will be refining their polling over time to account for all sorts of fluctuations and irregularities. And it seems fair to note that Pollster.com’s aggregrate of horse race polls, like Gallup’s track, also finds a dead heat. Still, the overall demographic composition in these surveys is something that will be worth keeping an eye on as we seek to figure out what they are really trying to tell us.

[CJ7]

polls are like entertainers on radio shows

[CuteOldGuy]

There is no way President Obama can win reelection. But there are a hundred ways the Republicans can lose. Near the top of that list is to nominate Mitt Romney.

I weep for our country.

[CJ7]

I said there was no way he could win the first election

guess what?

[CuteOldGuy]

Obama didn't win, McCain lost it. McCain ran one of the worst campaigns in modern history.

[CJ7]

uh, yeah.

ok, anything you say

[joe bloe]

Dick Morris says the polls mean that Hussein is going to lose in a landslide! I just sent off for my Romney bumper sticker. This is going to be fun.

[CuteOldGuy]

CBJ7, my point was that the Republicans are too stupid to win. Therefore, President Obama wins by default. Sorry my sarcasm was lost on you.

[CJ7]

Originally Posted by CuteOldGuy

CBJ7, my point was that the Republicans are too stupid to win. Therefore, President Obama wins by default. Sorry my sarcasm was lost on you.

I got the sarcasim cof ... but when the electoral count was enough to win berfore the west coast had even been counted, that pretty much spells win imo.

I agree McSame was DOA before YOUBETCHA came on the bus, but I kinda thought Palin might give him an edge

[Whirlaway]

Obama won in 2008 because America thought Obama was a moderate; they were willing to give a moderate Democrate black guy the keys to the White House.

It won't go down the same way as in 2008; Romney will be a much better candidate than McCain.

[Guest123018-4]

McCain did not lose the election, Bush did.

[Texas Contrarian]

They're pretty meaningless at this stage. Tracking polls can tell you which way things are trending and indicate who got a late little boost from something that happened within the preceding few days, but that's about all. They'll bounce all over the place between now and November.

Remember when George H. W. Bush trailed Dukakis by about 17 points during the summer of 1988, just a few months before the election?

You do remember President Dukakis, don't you?

[CuteOldGuy]

Yeah. Zorba the clerk. LOL!

[Whirlaway]

Romney is not my guy; but if he wins (which I think he will), he will be very serious about controlling our debt and the size (and intrusiveness) of our government....here is what Rush said; and Rush knows............

RUSH: Folks, I must be honest with you. I hear this all the time from people about Romney, and I know him and I’ve talked to him. He came here and he sat down and he told me what his plan was, and it sounded like anything you and I would say. He even said to me, “If I accomplish everything I want to do, I may only be a one-term president.” I said, “What do you mean?” “Because I am gonna so fix this. It’s gonna be dramatic. We’ve gotta reverse this. We gotta stop this. Our children’s future is at stake here, and I’m gonna stop the direction that we’re headed, and if they throw me out after four years, fine and dandy.” And from right here in this studio he left to go to a huge fundraiser here in Palm Beach. First traffic jam I have ever been in since I lived here trying to get home. (interruption) No, I don’t go to fundraisers. Of course I wasn’t invited. I don’t go to those things.

[CuteOldGuy]

You put WAY too much faith in Rush. He's entertaining, but, despite appearances, a lightweight in these matters. He is about a mile wide and an inch deep when it comes to understanding politics.