The Euro

[Guest053011]

There's a lot of talk of the Euro dropping to .50 on the US dollar.

The Euro is the marker for a number of countries, just as Gold was with Austria's bank in the 1931. However credit failed with Credit Anstalt, causing a crisis in Britain who was the primary lender to Austria.

A gentlemen explained to me, that in an effort to save the British banks they went on an austerity budget and cut the pay for their sailors by 25% - ending in mutiny. The wives of sailors had already become sex workers to help their family put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads, and the indignity of the cut was more then any of them could stand for.

Now there are strikes and firebombings in Greece, British students are lashing out against the royals, Milan has garbage piling the streets.

Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain have high dept levels and their own banking problems, unemployment and big budget deficits. They're the weakest of the European Union. They can't risk the austerity budget crisis that Britain once did fearing the public would revolt.

My trip to Paris has garnered concern as protests can be sudden and fierce in France. I can't say I'm afraid for my life, but it would make for a most memorable trip.

Thoughts on the subject from our interesting board members?

[discreetgent]

Be thankful you have the CAD and the US to your south, not France

Seriously, the Euro's current problem was almost inevitable. When countries lose the ability to devalue their currency based on their own economic conditions bad things happen. OTOH the USD is not in great shape at the moment either, so the euro falling to .50 on the dollar is IMO a real stretch.

Single currency without integrated economies and common political leadership is a recipe for disaster. One of the intents behind the Euro was that it would move the EU towards a integrated economy and eventually to a much tighter political union as well; hasn't happened that way.

[Sisyphus]

If your friend can accurately predict when the Euro is going to .50USD...do let me know so I can book MY trip! Loved Europe when the Euro was at .87USD!

At 1.31 to 1.40USD....not so much!

Learn enough French to recognize those phrases that mean it's about to be set off & keep your head on a swivel. Do that...you should be fine. Enjoy!

[London Rayne]

What a shock....the economy everywhere sucks. I don't see how this comes as a surprise....it was predicted, but I will refrain from quoting the source for sensitive ears lol. I do doubt it will go as low as .50, but time will tell.

Numis has been of my better investements lately, and I am glad I put up what little costs were necessary. The dollar bill and now Eruo, are falling fast lol. Good for those of us who travel there (without the protest part), bad for those who live there...eh?

Still, I see a trip in progress.

[Guest053011]

Originally Posted by Sisyphus

If your friend can accurately predict when the Euro is going to .50USD...do let me know so I can book MY trip! Loved Europe when the Euro was at .87USD!

At 1.31 to 1.40USD....not so much!

Learn enough French to recognize those phrases that mean it's about to be set off & keep your head on a swivel. Do that...you should be fine. Enjoy!

Actually my friend did not make a specific prediction as to how low it would fall - only that he agreed it was in for a crisis. I merely discussed what I was reading and hearing from news organizations, and he mentioned to me the situation of the sailors.

However, since his occupation is to predict such things (and I can't discuss his predictions) and he has done astonishingly well hedging investments on his own predictions, I can't help but perk up when he agrees with a potential problem.

Actually growing up really poor, I don't need to know any French. Body language of people surrounding me is plenty to set of warning bells when something is going to go down! Fortunately the friend I'm traveling with speaks fluent French, so between the two of us we should be fine lol

If there is a drop before I land in Paris, I look forward to purchasing much fine lingerie

[discreetgent]

Sisyphus, what you really want to do is to buy Yen and Dollars; if you catch it just right you'll never need to worry again what the exchange rate is. You could even adopt SR Only as your charity to help him get through his bucket list and not worry about the cash lol

BTW if anyone gets a chance go read House of Morgan. Some fascinating stuff about how US banks got caught with bad European bonds because of some of the financial crises in the late 19th and early 20th century.

[Guest053011]

Originally Posted by discreetgent

Be thankful you have the CAD and the US to your south, not France

Seriously, the Euro's current problem was almost inevitable. When countries lose the ability to devalue their currency based on their own economic conditions bad things happen. OTOH the USD is not in great shape at the moment either, so the euro falling to .50 on the dollar is IMO a real stretch.

Single currency without integrated economies and common political leadership is a recipe for disaster. One of the intents behind the Euro was that it would move the EU towards a integrated economy and eventually to a much tighter political union as well; hasn't happened that way.

Actually I'm grateful we have the US to the south of our boarder and not Mexico! There's much to be said for sharing a boarder with only one country - I'm pleased as hell to have you as neighbors.

Your comment makes me recall there being much tension when they the EU told Poland to make it's economy less dependent on agriculture, the people there were devastated. Agriculture is what they know, it's what they're good at, it's been part of their history, social structure and economy for thousands of years.

[atlcomedy]

Originally Posted by discreetgent

Be thankful you have the CAD and the US to your south, not France

Seriously, the Euro's current problem was almost inevitable. When countries lose the ability to devalue their currency based on their own economic conditions bad things happen. OTOH the USD is not in great shape at the moment either, so the euro falling to .50 on the dollar is IMO a real stretch.

Single currency without integrated economies and common political leadership is a recipe for disaster. One of the intents behind the Euro was that it would move the EU towards a integrated economy and eventually to a much tighter political union as well; hasn't happened that way.

Bingo

Originally Posted by Sisyphus

If your friend can accurately predict when the Euro is going to .50USD...do let me know so I can book MY trip! Loved Europe when the Euro was at .87USD!

At 1.31 to 1.40USD....not so much!

Learn enough French to recognize those phrases that mean it's about to be set off & keep your head on a swivel. Do that...you should be fine. Enjoy!

Yeah...the swing can be huge & unlike some other tourist spots where things are still (practically) tied to the dollar...in Euroland you really have a change in purchasing power

[Sisyphus]

Originally Posted by Lauren Summerhill

I merely discussed what I was reading and hearing from news organizations, and he mentioned to me the situation of the sailors.

You "heard" the Euro was going from 1.31USD to .50USD... Who are you listening to, Glenn Beck?!?!?

Originally Posted by Lauren Summerhill

Actually growing up really poor, I don't need to know any French. Body language of people surrounding me is plenty to set of warning bells when something is going to go down! Fortunately the friend I'm traveling with speaks fluent French, so between the two of us we should be fine lol

I didn't grow up poor...but I grew up spending more time than I should have in shite neighborhoods so I concur in the importance of body language...yours & those around you. Carry yourself as though you belong & as all you hear/see is exactly what you expected to hear/see.

You also don't need to speak the language to appreciate the value of background din. If it goes way up or way down...stop your own convo to tune in & figure out why.

Originally Posted by discreetgent

Sisyphus, what you really want to do is to buy Yen and Dollars; if you catch it just right you'll never need to worry again what the exchange rate is. You could even adopt SR Only as your charity to help him get through his bucket list and not worry about the cash lol

I know you're right, DG! I just don't have the level-of-interest to pay attention to that sort of thing on a regular basis...which is a prescription for disaster! Sorry, SRO, we'll have to fund your bucket list some other way my friend!

Originally Posted by discreetgent

BTW if anyone gets a chance go read House of Morgan. Some fascinating stuff about how US banks got caught with bad European bonds because of some of the financial crises in the late 19th and early 20th century.

Is that Chernow? If so....def gotta add to the list! Loved his Hamilton bio!! Can't recommend that highly enough!

[Mazomaniac]

Originally Posted by discreetgent

Sisyphus, what you really want to do is to buy Yen and Dollars;

Yeah, but which Dollar?

I've been lovin' the Aussie Dollar - and it's been lovin' me back like a drunk prom date. Now days, though, I think it's a stretch down under. Sold off most of my holdings there.

I agree on the Yen, but not until the Koreas get their shit together. To much political risk for my blood although you should get a nice pop if the peninsula quiets down for a while.

I do like Canada as a safe haven right now. Not much I see on the upside but I can't figure out any reason why Moose Money would hit the skids.

Tough times ahead in the currency markets I think - and it's hard to know where to run.

All I know is that I'm moving my company's manufacturing base to Europe as quickly as I can (the first load of pallets shipped to the new plant yesterday). I don't know how far the Euro's gonna fall, but it is gonna fall and that's big, bad news for US based manufacturers like me.

Cheers,
Mazo.

[I B Hankering]

Originally Posted by discreetgent

BTW if anyone gets a chance go read House of Morgan. Some fascinating stuff about how US banks got caught with bad European bonds because of some of the financial crises in the late 19th and early 20th century.

I’ve been reading on U.S. panics and depressions that have occurred since the American Civil War so as to better understand our current economic situation. I read one book entitled, Panic of 1907, but more than one reviewer suggested that House of Morgan was even better. I bought it a couple of weeks ago. I guess now I gotta read it—it is a huge one!


"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." Mark Twain

[discreetgent]

Originally Posted by I B Hankering

but more than one reviewer suggested that House of Morgan was even better. I bought it a couple of weeks ago. I guess now I gotta read it—it is a huge one!

It is a very long book but an easy enough read for planes, etc. and easy enough to read, put down, and pick up where you left off a week later.

[London Rayne]

I can't even look down on a plane lol. I can jump out of one though with no probelmo! I envy those people who can read and enjoy a good book in the air....I just go nuts!

[discreetgent]

Originally Posted by London Rayne

I can't even look down on a plane lol. I can jump out of one though with no probelmo! I envy those people who can read and enjoy a good book in the air....I just go nuts!

I've enjoyed a great blowjob there.

[London Rayne]

Oh my! I am not saying a word! I was looking up lol.