BEIJING (
MNI) - Chinese export numbers were the latest in a stream of official reports pointing to an upturn in economic activity in October, though still-muted import growth underlined the fragility of the recovery.
The 11.6% y/y increase in export growth was significantly above the +9.0% expected by economists, according to the median of an MNI survey. Imports rose just 2.4% last month, below the 3% expected, suggesting that domestic demand remains tepid.
The monthly trade gap ballooned to $31.99 billion, the biggest since January 2009 and well above the $26.9 billion expected. The October surplus is typically higher than September's, but may also have been inflated by renewed inflows of speculative "hot money," which have been known to sneak in via the trade account.
The October surplus pushed the trade gap so far this year to $180.23 billion, up significantly over the $126.8 billion recorded during the same period last year.
Exports rose 7.8% during the first 10 months of the year, while imports were up just 4.6%.
The trade data follow reports Friday suggesting that economic activity is stabilizing following this year's slowdown. Industrial output rose 9.6% y/y last month, slightly above the +9.4% expected and September's +9.2%.
Output is now well out of the 8.9% trough seen during August but remains well below the double-digit growth that markets became accustomed to in recent years.
Source:
MNI Deutsche Boerse Group
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