Let's Have Some Fun

[CuteOldGuy]

Ok, we are getting a bit too serious. I propose we start a pool, and each of us guess at what level of debt we will be at when it reaches critical mass and we have a major economic collapse and hyperinflation.

On second thought, a pool might be illegal, and we don't discuss anything illegal here on ECCIE, so let's just play for fun! I'll start.

I'm going to say, $20.5 trillion. Next?

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/...rpassing-china

[waverunner234]

Why am I here? Oh yes I gotta answer something (sorry I just woke up)
Still waking up

When debt gets too big?

Not soon!

Just look at Japan, their debt is like 200% of GDP and lol actually the Jen has NEVER been stronger as of lately and among investors is considered more a safe have than even gold. And look at Europe.

COT go do some math (oh I forgot you don't have a degree in math, well I do so you have to believe me).

So my answer to your question is:

NOT IN MY LIFETIME, after that, I don't know and I don't care!

[CuteOldGuy]

Ok, we have Wave weighing in at Never. Next? So far, I'm the odds on winner.

[waverunner234]

Forgot to say with my sleepie head, when US got the credit downgrade the Euro was $1.43. Now we reach $15 B debt and the Euro is ............................. $1.35
So the dollar got 8 cents STRONGER in between.
Expectations for the dollar end of year: 1 Euro = $1.31, another 4 cents stronger!
Investors love dollars, they are also considered safe haven!

[TexTushHog]

We will have deflation before we have hyperinflation.

[waverunner234]

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

We will have deflation before we have hyperinflation.

That would be a disaster for economic growth

[TexTushHog]

Indeed it would. However if we have massive bank failures in Europe because no LOLR steps up to shore up banks holding Euro denominated sovereign debt, you will almost certainly have contagion to banks here and another deep recession, if not out right depression that could very well trigger just that.

[waverunner234]

ECB won't let it come that far. They have fucked with the rules before, they'll do it again. They'll do whatever is needed, even as LOLR (under pressure from US banks and the Fed??)
At the moment ECB is buying bonds in unprecedented numbers but are limited by Gemany and France willing to go only that far. They are no allowed to but will start the printing press as soon as 2012 when Italy has to pay back some 4xx billion Euro's and there is NO WAY they can ever come up with that money.
Trigger will be the bond yields which I am following on a daily base.

[CuteOldGuy]

Well, now that our two effete, impudent snobs have weighed in, what say the rest of you?

[budman33]

I would chime in but you lied about this thread being fun.

[CuteOldGuy]

Well, we haven't gotten any high quality responses yet. Give it time, it might be fun later.

[waverunner234]

Originally Posted by CuteOldGuy

Well, now that our two effete, impudent snobs have weighed in, what say the rest of you?

Shit I had to look up those words. Why didn't you just say it in English?

[TheDaliLama]

"impudent snobs "

I thought Spiro Agnew was dead.



Is this COG?

[waverunner234]

Originally Posted by CuteOldGuy

Well, we haven't gotten any high quality responses yet. Give it time, it might be fun later.

Okay you win COG I'm the last one who wants to spoil your game

45 Trillion

I guess this is a highly qualified response now?

Do I have to explain why this number? (You didn't explain yours but maybe you're going to?)

3 times GDP + a little bit to round it off. (But my first answer is still the best)

[CuteOldGuy]

Originally Posted by TheDaliLama

"impudent snobs "

I thought Spiro Agnew was dead.



Is this COG?

You're just being a nattering nabob of negativism.