CAN ROMNEY WIN....

[Whirlaway]

The question "Can Romney Win" ??

I like Dan Balz at the Washinton Post.....here is his take on what is going on in the campgain and the strategy behind the opposing sides.

Balz offers up a sobering assessment.....it was difficult to read, much less agree with. It seems the Team Obama strategy is to destroy Romney before the convention; conventional thinking Romney will get a positive spike from the pagentry and air time in Tampa.

In a nutshell, the upcoming set of summer polling data will tell us if the sustained Obama attacks have hurt Romney, if not, then Obama is toast. If polling shows no more erosion from Obama, or Obama gaining some ground, hello 2nd term !

Read at your own peril.............

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...EuW_story.html

[CJ7]

the crux of the "win" biscuit will be the face to face debates ...

[Whirlaway]

Yes and No....debates rarely move polling results more than +/- 2 points, unless of course a candidate has a Richard Nixon moment........if Obama is polling under 50% at that late date in the election, a 2nd term will be a streach.

Originally Posted by CJ7

the crux of the "win" biscuit will be the face to face debates ...

[joe bloe]

Absolutely, Romney can win. Romney is raising more money than Obama. The economy is in terrible shape and it's not getting any better. I think if Romney takes off the gloves and puts Obama on the defensive, he will win. Romney needs to force Obama to defend his indefensible record. Reagan was substantially behind Carter at this point in the campaign and he came back to win 44 states.

[CJ7]

Originally Posted by Whirlaway

Yes and No....debates rarely move polling results more than +/- 2 points, unless of course a candidate has a Richard Nixon moment........if Obama is polling under 50% at that late date in the election, a 2nd term will be a streach.

my point


if the race remains really close those 2 pionts could tip the scale

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by Whirlaway

Yes and No....debates rarely move polling results more than +/- 2 points, unless of course a candidate has a Richard Nixon moment........if Obama is polling under 50% at that late date in the election, a 2nd term will be a streach.

Supposedly Reagan's one debate with Carter, one week before the election, made a big difference. Many people attribute Reagan's closing surge with his strong debate performance.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

Supposedly Reagan's one debate with Carter, one week before the election, made a big difference. Many people attribute Reagan's closing surge with his strong debate performance.

I wonder if Romney has the courage to follow in Reagans footsteps and ask Obama the same question RR asked Carter in their debate.

"Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"

Considering how bad the economy was on January 20, 2009, that might be an extremely slippery slope for the Mittster!

[i'va biggen]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

Absolutely, Romney can win. Romney is raising more money than Obama. The economy is in terrible shape and it's not getting any better. I think if Romney takes off the gloves and puts Obama on the defensive, he will win. Romney needs to force Obama to defend his indefensible record. Reagan was substantially behind Carter at this point in the campaign and he came back to win 44 states.

Ironic isn't it the economy being in this shape,but candidates can raise millions plus the millions in the super pacs....

[CJ7]

crawling out of a deep seated, bloody recession and keeping the countrys head above water doesnt count ... regardless of the republican house and their every attempt to quell multiple opportunities to help the country stand a little taller, Obama has had every chance in the world to bring unemployment down to 4%, cut the deficit a trillion dollars, and reduce the national debt to post Clinton numbers.

(sarcasim disclaimer for the mental midgets)

[I B Hankering]

Originally Posted by CJ7

crawling out of a deep seated, bloody recession and keeping the countrys head above water doesnt count ... regardless of the republican house and their every attempt to quell multiple opportunities to help the country stand a little taller, Obama has had every chance in the world to bring unemployment down to 4%, cut the deficit a trillion dollars, and reduce the national debt to post Clinton numbers.

(sarcasim disclaimer for the mental midgets)

.

[CJ7]

true IB

at least you were honest

[Laz]

I just want someone to point out that when Obama says we do not want to go back to the Bush policies that he has in most cases followed Bush policies on steroids.

Gitmo - Same
Iraq - Same
Afghanistan - Probably the same but Bush would not have advertised the exit timeline
Spending - Bush tripled
Deficits - Bush tripled
Unpaid for health care - Bush, prescription drugs; Obama, Obamacare
Big business bailout - same
Regulations - Bush +
Taxes - Bush reduced for all, Obama is increasing for all

Where is the big shift in policy other than increased taxes.

[CJ7]

last time I checked we were out of Iraq and the bush tax policies havent changed a cent, am I wrong?

being still in place said tax cuts represent a major portion of the deficit and spending has been at the mercy of the house of represenatives for the last two years .. a republican controlled house of represenatives

thought Id point that out ...

[nwarounder]

I think it will depend on how far nutso to the left Obama is going to take it. Recently, his speeches sound like a greek leader, so he is pushing the mods away quickly. He doesn't have that same uplifting spirit he had in 08 either which will hurt. On the other hand, the weirdo and his magic underwear seems to be brought up in every political conversation I hear these days, and is a huge problem for Mitt. I personally don't think he can get past the Mormonism, and then I heard today his campaign is going to start including it in his speeches, HUGE mistake.

Looks like a race to whoever fucks up the most.

[Submodo]

The only thing that will get Mitt a win is the (official) unemployment rate staying where it is now or rising from now to October.

I think in those battleground states of the midwest, his wealth and how he got his wealth are going to sink him.

Not unlikely is a tie in the electoral college numbers.