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10-29-2022, 06:39 PM
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#1
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Valued Poster
Join Date: May 20, 2017
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 5,453
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The home stretch to November 8th
Copy this and put down your final predictions:
Senate:
John Fetterman
Mehmet Oz
Rapheal Warnock
Herschel Walker
Adam Laxalt
Catherine Masto
Mark Kelly
Blake Masters
Tim Ryan
J.D. Vance
Ron Johnson
Mandela Barnes
Maggie Hassan
Don Bolduc
Michael Bennett
Joe O'Dea
Marco Rubio
Val Demmings
Ted Bud
Cheri Beasley
Governor:
Kari Lake
Katie Hobbs
Brian Kemp
Stacey Abrams
Tony Evers
Tim Michels
Gretchen Whitmer
Tudor Dixon
Steve Sisolak
Joe Lombardo
Laura Kelly
Derek Schmidt
Wes Moore
Dan Cox
Josh Shapiro
Doug Mastriano
Ron DeSantis
Charlie Crist
Bonus
Amanda Adkins
Sharice Davids
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Quote
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10-29-2022, 07:32 PM
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#2
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Oct 31, 2019
Location: Miami, Fl
Posts: 5,667
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I don't know enough about some of those people but I'll stand by my prediction that Republicans will win 80% of all "toss ups" at election time and Republicans will take the House and Senate by 2
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Quote
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10-29-2022, 10:01 PM
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#3
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Valued Poster
Join Date: May 20, 2017
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 5,453
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn
Copy this and put down your final predictions:
Senate:
John Fetterman
Mehmet Oz Winner
Rapheal Warnock
Herschel Walker Winner
Adam Laxalt Winner
Catherine Masto
Mark Kelly
Blake Masters Winner
Tim Ryan
J.D. Vance Winner
Ron Johnson Winner
Mandela Barnes
Maggie Hassan Winner
Don Bolduc
Michael Bennett Winner
Joe O'Dea
Marco Rubio Winner
Val Demmings
Ted Bud Winner
Cheri Beasley
Governor:
Kari Lake Winner
Katie Hobbs
Brian Kemp Winner
Stacey Abrams
Tony Evers Winner
Tim Michels
Gretchen Whitmer
Tudor Dixon Winner
Steve Sisolak
Joe Lombardo Winner
Laura Kelly
Derek Schmidt Winner
Wes Moore Winner
Dan Cox
Josh Shapiro Winner
Doug Mastriano
Ron DeSantis Winner
Charlie Crist
Bonus
Amanda Adkins Winner
Sharice Davids
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Net gain of 4-5 in the Senate for GOP
Net gain of 30-35 in the House for the GOP
Net gain of 3-4 in governors for the GOP
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10-29-2022, 10:20 PM
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#4
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Lifetime Premium Access
Join Date: Apr 25, 2009
Location: sa tx usa
Posts: 14,536
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Seeing there are no Texas ones there, i'll just state the Tejas mantra: Vote early. Vote often.
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10-30-2022, 05:29 AM
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#5
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BANNED
Join Date: Aug 5, 2010
Location: Houston Area
Posts: 5,956
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From what I hear on the (gasp) radio, and from what I can deduce from mainstream news outlets, the liberal seem somewhat spooked about the election overall.
That they have spent so much money on defeating some indeviduals says they are worried. Bringing in the big names in other campaigns is alao telling.
One conservative radio personality regularly references betting on the election results in Europe and Vegas as indicators of a general Republican win.
We shall all see what we shall see.
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Quote
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10-30-2022, 05:34 AM
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#6
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BANNED
Join Date: Aug 5, 2010
Location: Houston Area
Posts: 5,956
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Another thought:
If there is in fact a general Republican win in November, will we see the same deeply disturbed mental behavior from liberals that we saw after the 2016 election? Will the concept of "Safe Spaces" on college campuses return? Will employers have to bring in emotional support dogs to the workplace along with counselors?
More importantly: Will we have solid election results by breakfast time on Nov 9th?
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10-30-2022, 07:04 AM
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#7
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn
Net gain of 4-5 in the Senate for GOP
Net gain of 30-35 in the House for the GOP
Net gain of 3-4 in governors for the GOP
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You are definitely tilting red. The only Republican Senate seat I see as possibly flipping is Pennsylvania. It will be close. Meanwhile, Democratic seats in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada are in jeopardy. Early voting has been strong which shows a continued interest in the elections, as it was in 2018 and 2020. That is good. I disagree with your predictions as I believe they are high on the number of seats Republicans will gain in both the House and Senate. I predict Kelly wins in Arizona and hopefully Warnock wins in Georgia. I still think a split in the Senate is very likely.
You predict a gain of 30-35 seats in the House which seems rather high, although it is safe to say Republicans will take control of the House. Republicans did better than expected in 2020 so the number of vulnerable Democratic House seats in 2022 is not as high. The Cook Political Report and FOX News only have 33 seats total as toss-up. And that is on the high side compared to other forecasts. I would put the Republican gains at aboout 25 max.
My predictions from 2020:
Biden wins. Democrats maintain control of the House but lose seats. Democrats tie up the Senate.
My predictions from 2018:
Democrats take control of the House. Republicans pick up 1 seat in the Senate (they picked up 2 when Rick Scott won in Florida by .2%). O'Rourke loses to Cruz in Texas but by much less than the Trump 2016 victory margin of 9%. Cruz won by 2.6%.
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10-30-2022, 07:09 AM
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#8
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ICU 812
Another thought:
If there is in fact a general Republican win in November, will we see the same deeply disturbed mental behavior from liberals that we saw after the 2016 election? Will the concept of "Safe Spaces" on college campuses return? Will employers have to bring in emotional support dogs to the workplace along with counselors?
More importantly: Will we have solid election results by breakfast time on Nov 9th?
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To answer your last question first -- probably not. In some states counting of mail-in votes does not even begin until polls close. And that process is very time consuming.
Regarding your first comments -- will we see the same non-acceptance of the results from Republicans if Democrats win in certain states? Certainly many people of the left were upset by the election results in 2016 but few denied the legitimacy of Trump's victory.
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10-30-2022, 10:19 AM
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#9
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Lifetime Premium Access
Join Date: Jan 1, 2010
Location: houston
Posts: 48,267
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Their safe space is QANON and Truth Social
Quote:
Originally Posted by ICU 812
Another thought:
If there is in fact a general Republican win in November, will we see the same deeply disturbed mental behavior from liberals that we saw after the 2016 election? Will the concept of "Safe Spaces" on college campuses return? Will employers have to bring in emotional support dogs to the workplace along with counselors?
More importantly: Will we have solid election results by breakfast time on Nov 9th?
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We know God damn good and well that the Captial is not a safe space when Trump lovers lose!
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10-30-2022, 12:04 PM
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#10
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BANNED
Join Date: Jan 8, 2010
Location: Steeler Nation
Posts: 18,435
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Oh Dear! Is It Unsafe to Accumulate Capital?
Quote:
Originally Posted by WTF
We know God damn good and well that the Captial is not a safe space when Trump lovers lose!
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Thanks, WTF. I'll take that under advisement. Now can you please tell everyone the difference between Captial and Capital and Capitol?
Stay safe out there!
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10-30-2022, 01:39 PM
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#11
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BANNED
Join Date: Aug 5, 2010
Location: Houston Area
Posts: 5,956
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Lusty: I have got to (gasp) side with WTF on that. I have the same disfunction when it comes to spelling, compounded by fat fingers and age-related vision issues.
BTW: GHOTI is phonetic spelling for "FISHH".
GH= f sound as in laugh
O= i sound as in women
TI= sh sound as in nation
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10-30-2022, 05:14 PM
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#12
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Oct 31, 2019
Location: Miami, Fl
Posts: 5,667
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
To answer your last question first -- probably not. In some states counting of mail-in votes does not even begin until polls close. And that process is very time consuming.
Regarding your first comments -- will we see the same non-acceptance of the results from Republicans if Democrats win in certain states? Certainly many people of the left were upset by the election results in 2016 but few denied the legitimacy of Trump's victory.
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Damn! I almost choked on that one. Maybe you should have added "in public" because I'll bet every single one of them said that in private and the two biggest denier's were John Lewis and Hillary who repeat that to this day but you know the rules "Trump can't do it but Democrats can".
Just like Democrats can contest seating electors like they did in 2001,2005, 2017 but when a Republican does it "they have violated their Constitutional oath to protect and defend the Constitution". Ignorance or hypocrites? Hard to tell.
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10-30-2022, 05:52 PM
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#13
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HedonistForever
Damn! I almost choked on that one. Maybe you should have added "in public" because I'll bet every single one of them said that in private and the two biggest denier's were John Lewis and Hillary who repeat that to this day but you know the rules "Trump can't do it but Democrats can".
Just like Democrats can contest seating electors like they did in 2001,2005, 2017 but when a Republican does it "they have violated their Constitutional oath to protect and defend the Constitution". Ignorance or hypocrites? Hard to tell.
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On November 9, 2016 Hillary Clinton conceded the election to Donald Trump. "Hillary Clinton conceded the White House race to President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday morning, saying she hoped "he will be a successful president for all Americans."
John Lewis was correct in his claim that Russia interfered in the 2016 election but few people believe the interference impacted the election. I certainly do not. Many protested Trump's election but, I repeat, few denied Trump was the legitimate victor.
I must have missed it. How many lawsuits were filed by Democrats claiming fraud cost Hillary the election? Was there a protest where thousands of people descended on the Capitol?
But to be honest you have taken this thread off-subject. Please respect Barleycorn.
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11-01-2022, 08:25 AM
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#14
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Valued Poster
Join Date: May 20, 2017
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 5,453
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
On November 9, 2016 Hillary Clinton conceded the election to Donald Trump. "Hillary Clinton conceded the White House race to President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday morning, saying she hoped "he will be a successful president for all Americans."
John Lewis was correct in his claim that Russia interfered in the 2016 election but few people believe the interference impacted the election. I certainly do not. Many protested Trump's election but, I repeat, few denied Trump was the legitimate victor.
I must have missed it. How many lawsuits were filed by Democrats claiming fraud cost Hillary the election? Was there a protest where thousands of people descended on the Capitol?
But to be honest you have taken this thread off-subject. Please respect Barleycorn.
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Hillary may have belatedly admitted to defeat but within six months, she was out saying the election was stolen due to Russian interference and she continued to say that for the next 3 1/2 years. She is out there now saying that the GOP was going to steal this election and 2024.
Now, as to tilting red, these are not all the races. These are the competitive races. According to Real Politic, there are 15 house seats up for grabs but that is getting down into the weeds. The important and surprising take away is how many competitive races there are that should have been democrats wins by default. The Governor of New York might by knocked off by a republican? Say it ain't so. A senator from Washington, a democrat, may be capped by a new republican? It can't be...but it is.
Only 7 days left.
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11-01-2022, 08:55 AM
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#15
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn
Hillary may have belatedly admitted to defeat but within six months, she was out saying the election was stolen due to Russian interference and she continued to say that for the next 3 1/2 years. She is out there now saying that the GOP was going to steal this election and 2024.
Now, as to tilting red, these are not all the races. These are the competitive races. According to Real Politic, there are 15 house seats up for grabs but that is getting down into the weeds. The important and surprising take away is how many competitive races there are that should have been democrats wins by default. The Governor of New York might by knocked off by a republican? Say it ain't so. A senator from Washington, a democrat, may be capped by a new republican? It can't be...but it is.
Only 7 days left.
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While there is truth to the claim that there was Russian interfreence in the 2016 election, I believe the impact was minor. Trump won a fair election.
You are correct in your analysis of the current outlook for next Tuesday. Supposedly safe Democratic seats are in jeopardy. You predicted Republicans would pick up 30-35 House seats. Does not seem realistic. You predicted a gain of 4-5 Senate seats. Again, does not seem realistic. I'm interested in which 4 Democratic Senate seats you see flipping.
Early voting in Texas has fallen behind 2018 levels. Early voting is usually an indicator of Democratic strength so that is not good for Democrats.
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