A new swing state poll paints an ominous picture for Democrats

[The_Waco_Kid]

paging black jesus .. better start praying for a miracle!!


yous gonna need one!



A new swing state poll paints an ominous picture for Democrats

https://news.yahoo.com/swing-state-p...190348899.html





For Democrats hoping to pick up Wisconsin from President Trump in 2020, the latest poll from Quinnipiac doesn't provide great news.


In a Quinnipiac survey of registered voters released Thursday, Trump beats all of the major 2020 Democratic contenders in the key state of Wisconsin by between 7 and 11 percentage points, with frontrunner Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) seven points away from Trump in the state.


The major Democratic contenders fare better against Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan, where all of them are beating the president, although the margins in Michigan are generally more narrow. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) beats Trump by four points in Pennsylvania and five points in Michigan.


Still, MSNBC's Garrett Haake notes that were you to take the 2016 election map and give Democrats both Pennsylvania and Michigan but have Trump keep Wisconsin, he would win the election — although Haake notes this discounts the possibility of Trump losing another state like Arizona.


Give Dems back Michigan and PA, but Trump keeps Wisconsin and it’s four more years. pic.twitter.com/JtJtA7qwMv


— Garrett Haake (@GarrettHaake) February 20, 2020


Quinnipiac's poll was conducted from February 12-18th by speaking to 823 registered voters in Wisconsin, 845 registered voters in Michigan, and 849 registered in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points. Read the full results at Quinnipiac.
More stories from theweek.com

[WTF]

Oh they need Wisconsin. They took the Governorship. So it should be interesting.

But you right...without Wisconsin , trouble.

I've seen one map where NH is critical!

But if the Dems take Florida...

[oeb11]

Call SC and the Axis of socialism - ftw

for "black jesus'!

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Yes, this one poll has Trump pulling ahead in Wisconsin. Previous polls had Democratic contenders ahead in Wisconsin..

And the same poll has him trailing several Democratic conternders in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Other most recent polls have Trump losing to Biden and Sanders in NC and Ohio. In Florida and Arizona it is an even race in the polls.

So much can change in 8 1/2 months. I won't put too much faith in the polls until after the Democratic convention. They are certainly more plausible than the opinions of people on this forum but they should not be taken as the gospel.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=irpromo

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Yes, this one poll has Trump pulling ahead in Wisconsin. Previous polls had Democratic contenders ahead in Wisconsin..

And the same poll has him trailing several Democratic conternders in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Other most recent polls have Trump losing to Biden and Sanders in NC and Ohio. In Florida and Arizona it is an even race in the polls.

So much can change in 8 1/2 months. I won't put too much faith in the polls until after the Democratic convention. They are certainly more plausible than the opinions of people on this forum but they should not be taken as the gospel.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=irpromo

+1

It's still early. Basically, it will be a 3-5 state race. If Trump keeps Florida and Ohio, the Dem nominee must get HC's 240 and flip Mich, Penn and Wisc back to blue.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Yes, this one poll has Trump pulling ahead in Wisconsin. Previous polls had Democratic contenders ahead in Wisconsin..

And the same poll has him trailing several Democratic conternders in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Other most recent polls have Trump losing to Biden and Sanders in NC and Ohio. In Florida and Arizona it is an even race in the polls.

So much can change in 8 1/2 months. I won't put too much faith in the polls until after the Democratic convention. They are certainly more plausible than the opinions of people on this forum but they should not be taken as the gospel.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=irpromo

You’ve been quoting polls since Trump was elected. Only the ones that suit your opinion. The ones that are favorable to Trump, you dismiss.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

You’ve been quoting polls since Trump was elected. Only the ones that suit your opinion. The ones that are favorable to Trump, you dismiss.

Not true at all. The link I provided has EVERY poll in it.

I focus on the polls in a handful of states, commonly known as "battleground" states. I don't care about polls done in states like Alabama or California or 40+ other other states since their outcome is not in doubt. I guess I could have mentioned Virginia where one poll shows a closer than expected race with Biden leading Trump by 4% in the latest poll.

The states I mentioned in my post are the ones that will spell victory or defeat in 2020 -- Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and possibly NC and Ohio, two states that I assumed would be Republican but current polling show close races. And I cited the latest polling done in those states.

What states favorable to Trump should I have mentioned?

[nevergaveitathought]

just as americans dont trust the news media

americans frequently aren't open with polls

the reliability of polls depend on a number of factors including random selection and honest response

disgusted americans care not to respond in many cases

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought

just as americans dont trust the news media

americans frequently aren't open with polls

the reliability of polls depend on a number of factors including random selection and honest response

disgusted americans care not to respond in many cases

Somewhat true. That is why there is always a margin of error associated with any poll. And polls taken so far before the actual event in question should be taken with a huge grain of salt. And always watch out for the number of respondents who say something like "Don't know", meaning they haven't made up their mind yet. The larger that number the less accurate the poll might be.

[nevergaveitathought]

what is the reason or are the reasons for trump's climbing in the polls and in esteem?

is it his defeat of the partisan leftist news media?

is it that the attempt by the dims and their allies to frame him didn't work and that he refused to be cowed?

is it the great economy he has built and how he has identified and done something about our real issues?

is it the congressional dims and the exposure of their idiocies?

or is it how the very sorry group of dim aspirants for president pale in comparison?

all these things have and are causing dims to flee what once was their party and flock to the president

[oeb11]

Answer - of choices 1-6 : ALL of the above!!!

[WTF]

Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought

what is the reason or are the reasons for trump's climbing in the polls and in esteem?

is it his defeat of the partisan leftist news media?

is it that the attempt by the dims and their allies to frame him didn't work and that he refused to be cowed?

is it the great economy he has built and how he has identified and done something about our real issues?

is it the congressional dims and the exposure of their idiocies?

or is it how the very sorry group of dim aspirants for president pale in comparison?

all these things have and are causing dims to flee what once was their party and flock to the president

Could you back that up with poll numbers

[WTF]

Originally Posted by bambino

You’ve been quoting polls since Trump was elected. Only the ones that suit your opinion. The ones that are favorable to Trump, you dismiss.

He didn't dismiss it you ignorant wop.

He pointed out there are more than just those three states in play.

[nevergaveitathought]

Originally Posted by WTF

Could you back that up with poll numbers

can you wait a bit and i'll get right back to ya?

be here the evening of November 3rd, that's when the poll comes out

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Not true at all. The link I provided has EVERY poll in it.

I focus on the polls in a handful of states, commonly known as "battleground" states. I don't care about polls done in states like Alabama or California or 40+ other other states since their outcome is not in doubt. I guess I could have mentioned Virginia where one poll shows a closer than expected race with Biden leading Trump by 4% in the latest poll.

The states I mentioned in my post are the ones that will spell victory or defeat in 2020 -- Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and possibly NC and Ohio, two states that I assumed would be Republican but current polling show close races. And I cited the latest polling done in those states.

What states favorable to Trump should I have mentioned?

Speedy, are you trying to say you haven’t been referencing polls for the last couple years? That’s false. You have. I’ve stated many times that some polls are designed to sway public opinion. I said that Biden wouldn’t win the nomination they day he announced in Philly. 200 hundred people showed up and it was clear to me he didn’t have it. I don’t need a poll to see that. And it’s got worse for him. The polls didn’t reflect this until recently.