Quote:
Originally Posted by Tempoecorto
i guess that's a good thing, lol. but with the high number of infections, if they spread to thailand, for example, won't their death rates go up?
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First, for the time being, it is academic. The current Thai government has no intention of reopening Thailand to American tourists any time soon.
Second, for the time being, it is doubly academic. All of the Thai government plans discussed to date include mandatory two week quarantine, essentially house arrest, in hotels chosen by the Thai government, at room rates that are significantly higher than what those hotels normally charge, plus room service for everything. There basically are no tourists ANYWHERE who will accept that arrangement. IATA tried to explain this to the Thai government, and got nowhere.
Nobody has any data about asymptomatic carriers of the virus. In particular, nobody has any data about how long the virus survives in an asymptomatic carrier. The best data currently available indicates that the virus generally runs its course, from initial infection to final resolution, in about 18 days, with typically about 4 days from initial infection to onset of symptoms, and 14 days of actual symptoms. 14 days is apparently not the maximum, but it is close: the vast majority of cases appear to resolve in that time. Many resolve sooner.
When the epidemic started in New York, case numbers in New York were doubling every two days. As of a few days ago, case numbers in New York were doubling every YEAR. New York has basically run out of virus carriers and potential victims: the epidemic has burned out and the virus is just about dead there.
The people trying to develop a vaccine are in a race against time: if the virus dies out before they finish their trials, there will be no need for a vaccine.
Recall that, while it did take a vaccine to do the job, smallpox now only exists, as far as we know, in exactly two laboratories on Planet Earth, and NOWHERE else. No cases have been seen in the wild in quite a number of years. That virus has burned out, with some help from Ed Jenner.
Ebola exists "somewhere", but there are currently, as far as we know, no human carriers. The original reservoir, apparently a bat-filled cave somewhere in Africa, is the only source. Someone will find the cave, dynamite it, closing it forever, and Ebola will become another footnote in the history books.
Nobody knows what Thailand's real coronavirus numbers might be. They APPEAR to be doing a good job of managing things to keep it out. We do know that the virus showed up there. A friend of mine had to do 14-day quarantine after someone at a wedding party she attended came down with the virus. I know she made it OK, and I think I would have heard something if anyone she knew had died from that episode.
Thais are, in general, very healthy. A healthy immune system is the single most important thing for avoiding and/or surviving this virus.
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