What sort of event needs to occur for us to all pull together?

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by Randy4Candy

Well, your consclusion is what you "think," as opposed to what "is." There are thousands of other holdings by the SC that have not been reinterpreted. If you examine your examples closely, you will find that the reinterpretations have been less restrictive (i.e. more "liberal") than what they replaced. Not good news for you, eh?

You caught me! I was expressing my opinion. I thought that's what we did on this board. My opinion is shared by millions of Americans and by four of the five members of SCOTUS.

Roe v Wade was almost overturned in 1992. It missed by one vote when Anthony Kennedy changed his mind at the last minute.

http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-280_162-603944.html
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/...n-papers_x.htm
http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/.../3-1-51.0.html

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by WTF

We are on the decline, you know it and I know it. Let's make some money off that reality. I'm not here to sell snake oil to these folks. Right now, the world does not have a better option to park their money. That will at some point change.

Making money off "reality" is much of what I've done for a living for many years. And, of course, what we have now is a pretty strange "reality!" Among other things, I manage the highest risk portfolio portions for relatively high-net worth investors. Most of them are pretty smart people; fools and idiots usually don't end up in the high 7-figure or 8-figure net worth category unless they had very wealthy parents. And I can tell you that, to a person, they're more concerned that at any other time in their lives, primarily because they want younger Americans to have the opportunities and bright futures they once did. Virtually all of them seem frustrated more by the fact that no one is doing anything to fix problems than by the mere fact that we have so many of them. (As an aside, I would suggest that you create a juicy list of short candidates and stand ready to pull the trigger at the appropriate time!)

And none of my equity partners are big players of the type that are gaming the financial system in order to play "heads-I-win; tails-taxpayers-lose" games with other people's money. I think the thing that upsets them the most is that no one is doing anything to take on the interests of big finance and rein in excesses. I know many successful people who thought that despite his other shortcomings, Obama would at least do that, especially since Republicans failed so miserably at that task during the '00s. They're disappointed and frustrated.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Making money off "reality" is much of what I've done for a living for many years. Among other things, I manage the highest risk portfolio portions for high-net worth investors. Most of them are pretty smart people; fools and idiots usually don't end up in the 8-figure net worth category unless they had very wealthy parents. And I can tell you that, to a person, they're more concerned that at any time in their lives. Virtually all of them are frustrated more by the fact that no one is doing anything to fix problems than they are by the mere fact that we have so many of them.

And none of them are big players of the type that are gaming the financial system in order to play heads-I-win; tails-taxpaers-lose games with other people's money. I think the thing that upsets most of my equity partners the most is that no one is doing anything to take on the interests of big finance and rein in excesses. I know many successful people who thought that despite his other shortcomings, Obama would at least do that. They're disappointed and frustrated.

The Fed/bankers have won...what can I say. They now rule this country. I see no hope of that changing.

I wish it weren't true but it is. Maybe not to some but that is the reality in my world. Others may still believe in Santa. Not me.

the good thing is that it will be a long slow decline, IMHO.

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by WTF

The Fed/bankers have won...what can I say. They now rule this country. I see no hope of that changing.

I wish it weren't true but it is. Maybe not to some but that is the reality in my world. Others may still believe in Santa. Not me.

the good thing is that it will be a long slow decline, IMHO.

I hope you're right. I think what we're doing now, printing money, will postpone the hard times that are coming, but it will also make the inevitable decline more severe. I think we're making the entire economy a bubble instead of just the housing market.

But hey, that's just my opinion.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

But hey, that's just my opinion.

And we all know what they say about "opinions." Don't we?

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by WTF

The Fed/bankers have won...what can I say. They now rule this country. I see no hope of that changing.

I wish it weren't true but it is. Maybe not to some but that is the reality in my world. Others may still believe in Santa. Not me.

the good thing is that it will be a long slow decline, IMHO.

I think you are largely correct, and that we will likely go through a long period of what some, including me from time to time, have referred to as "Japanification."

But I do think our situation will likely be far more chaotic than what Japan has experienced over the last couple of decades. The ride may be sort of like a scary roller-coaster at times.

Income and wealth disparity will probably get worse, not better, at least over the intermediate term. This has bad import for the social fabric of our nation. The tax system, in my view, cannot possibly increase the extent to which we redistribute resources downward as quickly as other factors can reverse the process.

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by bigtex

And we all know what they say about "opinions." Don't we?

It's one of my favorite expressions.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

It's one of my favorite self-expressions.

Fixed it for ya!

No charge!

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

I think you are largely correct, and that we will likely go through a long period of what some, including me from time to time, have referred to as "Japanification."

But I do think our situation will likely be far more chaotic than what Japan has experienced over the last couple of decades. The ride may be sort of like a scary roller-coaster at times.

Income and wealth disparity will probably get worse, not better, at least over the intermediate term. This has bad import for the social fabric of our nation. The tax system, in my view, cannot possibly redistribute resources downward as quickly as other factors can reverse the process.

It's going to get ugly when the entitlement class is told they can't get their "entitlements" any more. I don't think what's coming is going to be a roller coaster. That implies we'll have periods of strong growth followed by downturns. With our crushing debt burden, I don't see how it's going to be possible to grow at the traditional three percent level.

The national debt will probably be twenty trillion in four years. When we have to roll twenty trillion over, at let's say five percent, that's one trillion a year just for interest. I don't see how we're going to avoid severe inflation.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

I don't see how we're going to avoid severe inflation.

Didn't you also predict a resounding Romney victory?

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

...I don't think what's coming is going to be a roller coaster. That implies we'll have periods of strong growth followed by downturns...

No it doesn't.

It only implies that we're likely to have a rough ride, lurching from crisis to crisis and market panic to market panic (possibly in both equity and fixed-income markets, eventually). And I think it's likely that many of the crises will be contrived political crises over things like more "fiscal cliff" and debt-ceiling standoffs. Concerns over their effects may spill over into financial markets to an increasing degree.

It implies nothing about periods of "strong growth," whether sustained or not.

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by bigtex

Didn't you also predict a resounding Romney victory?

So what. You need new material.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

So what. You need new material.

I am quite certain that you would like me to use some newer material but if I were you, I wouldn't look for it to occur anytime soon. Sometimes older is better!

As for me, I am just enjoying the eight year ride and looking forward to hitching an 8 year ride on Hillary's 2016 bandwagon.

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

No it doesn't.

It only implies that we're likely to have a rough ride, lurching from crisis to crisis and market panic to market panic (possibly in both equity and fixed-income markets, eventually). And I think it's likely that many of the crises will be contrived political crises over things like more "fiscal cliff" and debt-ceiling standoffs. Concerns over their effects may spill over into financial markets to an increasing degree.

It implies nothing about periods of "strong growth," whether sustained or not.

OK fair enough. I misunderstood your metaphor. Roller coasters go up and then they go down, kind of like what market economies typically do. They overheat, then they over correct.

I hear rumors that the government will eventually come after the trillions tied up in 401K's and offer an annuity to the holder. Any thought's on that?

http://www.silverdoctors.com/obama-b...te-iras-401ks/

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by bigtex

I am quite certain that you would like me to use some newer material but if I were you, I wouldn't look for it to occur anytime soon. Sometimes older is better!

As for me, I am just enjoying the eight year ride and looking forward to hitching an 8 year ride on Hillary's 2016 bandwagon.

For everyone's sake, I hope the next four years will be something that people are likely to enjoy. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they are.