Kamala's Awful Record As Border Czar - Here's the Raw Truth

[HDGristle]

Originally Posted by lustylad

You act like I'm a lawyer who only asks questions he/she already knows the answer to. I'm not playing gotcha, ok? There's a long-brewing crisis at the border and people are fed up about it. You know a lot about the ins and outs of the problem, so help us out please. It makes sense to start with the low-hanging fruit instead of diving into the weeds. The reason I started with the graph is because we need to agree on the scale & dimensions of the problem if we're going to get our hands around it. Plus we need to agree on how to gauge success going forward in securing the border.

It's late. I'm busy tomorrow so you can take your time in formulating a response.

You and I won't solve the problem. I'm trying to understand what you know because there's a lot of shit packed into this chart. And it's origins begin in 2014 with Ron Johnson.

Flores reinterpretstion is the Obama change regarding how long a child can be in custody and is tied to family separation, pre-Trump.

MPP is Migrant Protection Program (Remain in Mexico)

Metering is not referenced, but should be. It's where Trump's CBP closed down a port of entry randomly and wouldn't provide information about when it would reopen to stifle asylum requests

The biggest drops you'll see in this data coincide with COVID. You'll note the data increases in the ramp-up to the election Trump lost.

The data appears to be apprehensions. The estimated apprehension rate for Trump and Biden is about 75% vs about 35% under Obama. (This is a big deal) These are folks who entered the U.S. and were detained by CBP. The data is from CBP. The labels aren't. And Trump admin had differences in how it counted things.

This is a better version. Scroll down to Southern Border Apprehensions and Policy Changes (2014-present). This only goes to Sep 23 so u can take the remainder from the Johnson chart and interpolate, but it gives you better context for events and who was in office

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/ch...-relationship/

This doesn't count estimated getaways and it doesn't account for same person multiple encounter. Simply apprehensions.

Let's leave it here for now

[HDGristle]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

keeping the wretches of society out

That's an easy one. No. It didn't. I thought you were looking for a real convo.

My bad

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by HDGristle

That's an easy one. No. It didn't. I thought you were looking for a real convo.

My bad

define real convo in terms of someone who supports open borders and free admit to one and all?

oh snap we both know not everyone should even be given the opportunity for asylum?

so why the cattle stampede by Biden Harris? she is the "Border Czar" yes?

[HDGristle]

Lusty, compare charts. This will solidify the point about it being the Ron Johnson chart

https://www.ronjohnson.senate.gov/border-security

Waco, that response is exactly why I don't think you're interested in a real convo. Open borders isn't reality today and it's not likely to be reality. It's a rally cry. It's a fear mongering tactic. It's one of the boogeyman's various miasma. We wouldn't have these levels of encounters, apprehensions and expulsions if we had an open border. We wouldn't have the visa denials we have if there were an open border. It's a tiresome discussion pegged in an extreme fear that doesn't focus on our actual laws, all the mechanisms in place or the reality of the work being done every day.

The stampede trend began under Trump. The actual acceleration is masked a bit because we're looking at apprehensions, not unique persons. It's divorced of a significant amount of context. No doubt up bigly under Biden, but we'll leave it there for now.

Also, Waco... since Border Czar isn't a real title, today you're Border Czar. Don't fuck it up.

[royamcr]

Reality is border czar is Congress. Border czar is just stupid magat label that suggests she is Russian and some sort of commonest or socialist...

Jokes on magats, Czars or Tsars were a monarchy.

[HDGristle]

In the U.S. it's been used by the media since the 1930's. Not just a recent thing.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by HDGristle

Lusty, compare charts. This will solidify the point about it being the Ron Johnson chart

https://www.ronjohnson.senate.gov/border-security

Waco, that response is exactly why I don't think you're interested in a real convo. Open borders isn't reality today and it's not likely to be reality. It's a rally cry. It's a fear mongering tactic. It's one of the boogeyman's various miasma. We wouldn't have these levels of encounters, apprehensions and expulsions if we had an open border. We wouldn't have the visa denials we have if there were an open border. It's a tiresome discussion pegged in an extreme fear that doesn't focus on our actual laws, all the mechanisms in place or the reality of the work being done every day.

The stampede trend began under Trump. The actual acceleration is masked a bit because we're looking at apprehensions, not unique persons. It's divorced of a significant amount of context. No doubt up bigly under Biden, but we'll leave it there for now.

Also, Waco... since Border Czar isn't a real title, today you're Border Czar. Don't fuck it up.

Don't be discouraged Gristle. I tried to point out here how difficult life is for law-abiding asylum seekers during the 1+ year period when they're not allowed to work. Singles are supposed to survive on less than $250/month in government assistance. Left leaning posters scorned me and right leaning posters diplomatically ignored me. TxDot's scorn was kind and gentle though. Anyway, you're getting a much better reception than I did.

I believe you're talking apples and the Waco Kid and LustyLad are talking oranges. You're emphasizing the situation of people who have applied to become lawful residents. They're focused on the total number of immigrants crossing the border, the majority of whom are undocumented. And they've got a point.

Take a look at the "Net Immigration" graph about 1/3rd of the way through this link,

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59899

The nonpartisan CBO estimates that net immigration to the USA was 2.6 million in 2022 and 3.3 million in 2023. They're estimating another 3.3 million net increase in 2024.

Scroll down a little farther and you'll come to "Net Immigration, by Category." The "Other" category here includes people who entered illegally, and people permitted to enter through the use of parole authority who may be awaiting proceedings in immigration court. I'd guess most of the "other" category consists of illegal immigrants, and the figure in 2023 and 2024 appears to be around 2.4 million people per year.

Also please note the trend in the first graph. The LPR+ category, which includes "permanent residents (LPRs) plus people who are eligible to apply to become LPRs on the basis of their current status, such as asylees and refugees," has remained flat. It's the "other" category, which includes illegal immigrants, that spiked.

For comparison, nonfarm payrolls increased by 2.8 million in 2023.

Can we accommodate that many immigrants annually without wages and unemployment being affected significantly? Right now I think I'd argue yes, as the size of the working-age population hasn't really increased since 6/30/2023. But when it does increase, I don't think so. That's too many people. I say that with hesitation though as the effects of Cuban immigrants on the strip club industry have been highly favorable for consumers like me. Quality and quantity are up and inflation-adjusted prices are down!

TxDot posted a link to a CNN article that quoted Goldman Sachs research. The GS analysts estimated that the immigration surge "eased wage growth by 0.3 percentage points at the national level and by at least as twice as much in the low-paying leisure and hospitality sector."

Given that Kamala's matched Trump's proposal to exempt taxes on tips, maybe this is why Trump's very competitive in Nevada, which has lots of hospitality workers, this time around.

There are parallels to the political impact of inflation and the loss of purchasing power here. Republicans argue probably with justification that Biden/Harris weren't doing a good job of policing the border. They likewise argue that Biden's/Pelosi's/Schumer's American Rescue Plan kickstarted inflation. People saw prices they pay go up, and real (inflation adjusted) wages went down.

The Waco Kid and LustyLad are reflecting what the majority of the country thinks, as reflected in polls: the Biden administration hasn't done a great job of managing the border situation.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by royamcr

Reality is border czar is Congress. Border czar is just stupid magat label that suggests she is Russian and some sort of commonest or socialist...

Jokes on magats, Czars or Tsars were a monarchy.

Nope! the title "Whatever Czar" is purely a media construct. neither party has ever officially used it. the press anointed Harris the "Border Czar" now they are scrambling to deny they did.

amusing!!!

and the Biden admin .. while it benefited them .. never bothered to correct/admonish the press for calling her that.

now the Biden admin, the Harris campaign and the media are embarrassed by it.


bahahahaaaaa

[HDGristle]

I'm not discouraged by any means, Tiny. The focus of Lusty's Ron Johnson chart is specific. It tells a fraction of the overall picture.

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/c...-42-statistics


https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/c...fer-statistics

You'll want those. They're helpful

This as well

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60569

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by HDGristle

I'm not discouraged by any means, Tiny. The focus of Lusty's Ron Johnson chart is specific. It tells a fraction of the overall picture.

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/c...-42-statistics


https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/c...fer-statistics

You'll want those. They're helpful

This as well

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60569

Grist, the Net Immigration by Category in the CBO report I linked to does, I think, provide a good illustration of a large part of the overall problem. The "Other foreign national" category, probably mostly illegal immigrants, varies from -500,000 to +600,000 persons per year from about 2001 to 2020. Then it spikes to around an estimated 2.4 million during the Biden/Harris term.

This chart, with less history and just showing the "other foreign nationals category", is Figure 1 in your CBO link.

As to your CBO report, yes, I'd expect GDP and federal revenues to increase as a result of the immigration surge. And deficits to decline, as many illegals, and legals, will pay Social Security and Medicare but not receive benefits. The estimated increase in cumulative GDP is impressive, $8.9 trillion over 11 years. However, will GDP and federal revenues per capita go up as a result of the surge? I don't know. In any event I don't think net immigration of 3 million+ people per year is sustainable politically.

[TheDaliLama]

Originally Posted by TheDaliLama

Correct…making it all essentially legal.

Do the math…that’s 1,825,000 a year..Add on to that the free passes for their families to join them later. Their wives, kids,parents, grand parents…once they start breeding the US will be a colony of Central America.

Alway read the fine print and keep your calculator handy whenever a Libtard proposes something.

Also not mentioned in this Bill that Citizen Trump supposedly put the kibosch on:

Every ILLEGAL (say it) immigrant that ILLEGALLY crosses our southern borders receives a cell phone, $2500 Visa Card, instructions on how to vote and contacts for advocate activists lawyers.

All funds coming indirectly from our Social Security fund.

[txdot-guy]

Originally Posted by TheDaliLama

Also not mentioned in this Bill that Citizen Trump supposedly put the kibosch on:

Every ILLEGAL (say it) immigrant that ILLEGALLY crosses our southern borders receives a cell phone, $2500 Visa Card, instructions on how to vote and contacts for advocate activists lawyers.

All funds coming indirectly from our Social Security fund.

None of this is true. It’s been debunked.

US Senate candidate spreads false claims about migrant aid

CLAIM: The federal government gives people who enter the U.S. illegally a cell phone, a domestic plane ticket to a location of their choosing and a $5,000 Visa gift card.

AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. People who enter the U.S. illegally do not receive such assistance from the federal government, immigration experts told The Associated Press.

THE FACTS: A U.S. Senate candidate from Arizona in recent days spread the false information in a video circulating on social media. The erroneous claims are similar to information that has been previously misrepresented online.

https://apnews.com/article/fact-chec...t-888004665809

[lustylad]

Hey txdot - why did you have to crop and quote so selectively from the AP link?

It seems to me the claims made by DaliLama and the GOP Senate candidate are in fact partly true and partly false.

Let's all try to follow Gristle's advice to "basically... avoid using absolutes" - shall we?

Here's my read from the AP link:

1. Many migrants ARE given a free cell phone by ICE, albeit one with highly limited capabilities.

2. Many migrants are also offered free transportation to a destination they choose from a list of options. Most are transported by bus, but some are flown on planes. The cost is usually borne by local authorities, but is reimbursed by the federal government.

3. The Federal Government does NOT give migrants free pre-paid $5k VISA cards (although the AP link does say certain immigrants from Cuba and Haiti are eligible for unspecified federal cash assistance). But are you aware some cities ARE handing out free debit cards? For example, New York City rolled out such a program earlier this year. It gives qualified migrants $350 a week, or up to $18,200 a year.

https://nypost.com/2024/07/03/us-new...-for-migrants/

Again, let's try to avoid sweeping generalizations and acknowledge more nuance.

Many rumors, while partly false, are wrapped around a kernel of truth.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by HDGristle

Lusty, compare charts. This will solidify the point about it being the Ron Johnson chart

https://www.ronjohnson.senate.gov/border-security

Yes, I'm aware that Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) has held hearings on the immigration crisis and referenced the same chart. The monthly bars, at least, are exactly the same as the ones in your post #76 link. That's because the data for both charts come from the same source - Customs and Border Patrol.

You seem to have a problem with the labels and events added by Sen. Johnson's staff. Well, ok then - let's address them. I agree you can't attribute every rise and fall in the monthly numbers to a single factor or policy change. And yes, covid played a role in the sharp falloff in early 2020.

If you really want to "discredit" the chart without dissecting it further, maybe you should just call it the Trump chart? Trump turned his head at the Butler rally to talk about this exact chart - just in time to dodge a bullet that zipped through his earlobe.

I still need to get caught up on all the links you provided. Please be patient.

[HDGristle]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Yes, I'm aware that Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) has held hearings on the immigration crisis and referenced the same chart. The monthly bars, at least, are exactly the same as the ones in your post #76 link. That's because the data for both charts come from the same source - Customs and Border Patrol.

You seem to have a problem with the labels and events added by Sen. Johnson's staff. Well, ok then - let's address them. I agree you can't attribute every rise and fall in the monthly numbers to a single factor or policy change. And yes, covid played a role in the sharp falloff in early 2020.

If you really want to "discredit" the chart without dissecting it further, maybe you should just call it the Trump chart? Trump turned his head at the Butler rally to talk about this exact chart - just in time to dodge a bullet that zipped through his earlobe.

I still need to get caught up on all the links you provided. Please be patient.

No, it's not the same because of "where" the data came from. The labels were added and modified by Trump staff. He got the chart from Johnson. That's why it's the Johnson chart. He updates it often.

Use the original Johnson and the one here, which also shows other important policy changes and which administration they fall under more clearly and the durations of the various programs and policy changes

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/ch...-relationship/

Trump owes Ron Johnson his life