The home stretch to November 8th

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Well, I've read in the short term momentum strategies actually work. So damn the hedges I had in place on predict.org, to insure against continued Democratic control of Congress. I'm going all in on the Republicans! Well, actually, $800 in, or whatever the maximum punt is that they allow.

One good friend of mine has employed momentum strategies to great effect, but I'm much too lazy to have tried to do so in recent years and have just stuck to old-fashioned long-term value investing. (Hey, that's worked out OK for Buffett!)

Looks like we're going to luck out big-time with regards to the risk of continuing Democratic congressional majorities hell-bent on sucking a lot more tax dollars from our accounts.

If the Biden regime wants to beat up on us, they'll just have to return to the regulatory strangulation playbook.

(No doubt they'll jump on that project with a vengeance and we'll just have to figure out how to navigate through all the landmines!)

[Texas Contrarian]

Since Mr. Barleycorn asked for specific predictions, here's the guess I'd make if someone put a gun to my head and forced me to do so. (Although I've long demonstrated that I'm not very good at political predictions. After the airing of the Billy Bush interview video in 2016, I thought Donald was toast!)

Red Team picks up 28 House seats, gaining a solid but not enormous majority.

Red Team picks up 2 Senate seats, making it 52-48.

A small House majority with the Senate remaining 50-50 (Kamala tie-breaker) would be an OK outcome in that gridlock would characterize 2023-2024 governance. The markets generally "like" gridlock. Hardcore gridlock (House and Senate majorities opposing an irresponsible president) is even better!

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I'm writing this at 3:30 PM CST on November 8. Senate races seem to be really widening out in favor of the Republicans based on the odds on predictit.org. Here's the implied probability at this moment of Republicans winning in some Senate races,

Pennsylvania 69%
Georgia 72%
Nevada 81%
Arizona 58%

Yesterday, these were the implied probabilities

Pennsylvania 64%
Georgia 65%
Nevada 67%
Arizona 54%

Overall the punters are giving Republicans an 82% probability of controlling the Senate, up from 74% yesterday.

I wonder what's happening? There aren't any exit polls out right now, correct? I can't figure out what would cause such a large change in sentiment in one day.

Way off. Pennsylvania Democratic. Georgia Democrat ahead but headed to a runoff in all likelihood. Democrat leading in Arizona. Republican leading in Nevada with lots of votes to be counted.

My predictions before election day -- Republicans take control of the House but with a maximum of 25 seats picked up. Senate remains at 50-50. Was anyone more accurate?

[Texas Contrarian]

Well, so much for the predictit.org "momentum trade!" I was a little surprised, given Biden's 42% approval rating and concern over declining real wages amid the high inflation rate of 2021-2022.

Why was there not a bigger backlash against this?

Maybe some of it is anti-Trump sentiment, since Donald stepped back in to remind everyone of how he can't stand it when he's not the #1 center of attention, and all but announced that he's hell-bent on bull-rushing his way to the 2024 Republican nomination, no matter how much wreckage he leaves in his wake and how much his presence reduces the probability of successfully opposing the progressive agenda.

The Dodds v. Jackson decision was in all likelihood a pretty big negative for Republicans' prospects as well, since virtually no Democrats and few independents seem willing to grant the state full dominion over women's uteruses. Social conservatives and fans of creating a full-on Christian theocracy might have looked a lot smarter if they'd found a way to finesse the issue in a much less hardcore manner by working out an acceptable set of compromises.

By historical standards (1994, 2010, etc.) this was a very poor outcome for the party out of power, given the low approval rating and obvious failures of the Biden administration. Republican leaders need to have a serious huddle with themselves if they don't want to seem lost in the wilderness for the rest of the decade.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

My predictions before election day -- Republicans take control of the House but with a maximum of 25 seats picked up. Senate remains at 50-50. Was anyone more accurate?

Probably not, judging from what I can see at first glance!

[NiceGuy53]

Wow! I did not see this coming. Red wave nope more like barely a trickle. I was way off in my prediction for the House. CBS is projecting the House still leans Republican but even that is not for certain at this point because there are still too many close House races left to call. On the Senate side, the Republicans would have to run the table on the remaining uncalled races to get to the 52 seats I predicted and that is not likely. Jackie called it correctly when he said the red wave would dissipate before it made landfall. And I thought TC had some excellent post-election analysis.

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Way off. Pennsylvania Democratic. Georgia Democrat ahead but headed to a runoff in all likelihood. Democrat leading in Arizona. Republican leading in Nevada with lots of votes to be counted.

My predictions before election day -- Republicans take control of the House but with a maximum of 25 seats picked up. Senate remains at 50-50. Was anyone more accurate?

Thanks to democrat officials we're going to have to wait. Run off in Georgia probably. Weeks before the judges clear out PA and the votes get counted. Crazy Alaska system that only favors incumbents but not the will of the people (it is a new thing promoted by the incumbents). 60 plus house seats still being determined. No bragging rights yet.

One thing, my own prediction, Fetterman's wife will be senator by April of 2023. A radical leftist, illegal alien who fundamentally hates this country. But that was the plan all along after the stroke. Biden said so.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Thanks to democrat officials we're going to have to wait. Run off in Georgia probably. Weeks before the judges clear out PA and the votes get counted. Crazy Alaska system that only favors incumbents but not the will of the people (it is a new thing promoted by the incumbents). 60 plus house seats still being determined. No bragging rights yet.

One thing, my own prediction, Fetterman's wife will be senator by April of 2023. A radical leftist, illegal alien who fundamentally hates this country. But that was the plan all along after the stroke. Biden said so.

Just admit , you were as wrong about the current election results as Q was about January 6th!

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Way off. Pennsylvania Democratic. Georgia Democrat ahead but headed to a runoff in all likelihood. Democrat leading in Arizona. Republican leading in Nevada with lots of votes to be counted.

My predictions before election day -- Republicans take control of the House but with a maximum of 25 seats picked up. Senate remains at 50-50. Was anyone more accurate?

By damn, I haven't won anything since the "Mr. Young Congeniality Award" in 8th grade, and I'm not going to let you deprive me of this. You didn't predict winners for all of Barleycorn's races. So what you did was kind of like entering a decathlon and not competing in the long jump, the high jump, the pole vault, the discus, etc. But since you did the best in the 100 meters and the shot put, you win. Well that's not the way it works buddy boy. The only people who voted on all the choices were Barleycorn and me. So when the dust clears it will be him or me.

I'm pissed at Texas Contrarian too. I say Republicans will pick up 29 seats so he says 28. What a shark.

Just kidding. You're by far the most astute poll watcher here and it shows.

Watching the swings on Predictit.org yesterday was wild. I suspect it's an inefficient market and there's money to be made on that site, the problem being the maximum wager is $850. Here are some comments by someone who turned $400 into $400,000 on predictit.org.

https://luckboxmagazine.com/trends/h...tical-futures/

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Tiny

By damn, I haven't won anything since the "Mr. Young Congeniality Award" in 8th grade, and I'm not going to let you deprive me of this. You didn't predict winners for all of Barleycorn's races. So what you did was kind of like entering a decathlon and not competing in the long jump, the high jump, the pole vault, the discus, etc. But since you did the best in the 100 meters and the shot put, you win. Well that's not the way it works buddy boy. The only people who voted on all the choices were Barleycorn and me. So when the dust clears it will be him or me.

I'm pissed at Texas Contrarian too. I say Republicans will pick up 29 seats so he says 28. What a shark.

Just kidding. You're by far the most astute poll watcher here and it shows.

Watching the swings on Predictit.org yesterday was wild. I suspect it's an inefficient market and there's money to be made on that site, the problem being the maximum wager is $850. Here are some comments by someone who turned $400 into $400,000 on predictit.org.

https://luckboxmagazine.com/trends/h...tical-futures/

lol. Yes, you are correct that I did not pick the individual winners for all of Barleycorn's choices. To be honest, I'm not astute enough to pick the Governor's races with any depth of knowledge. The only Governor's races that I was watching were in Georgia, Texas, and Arizona. I called Georgia and Texas and I am still hoping for Hobbs to hold off Lake. Only 66% of the vote counted. In every other race I would have gone with the incumbent.

In the Senate there were only 5 races that were contested in my opinion-- NH, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pa. I thought Kelly and Hassan would win. Fetterman in Pa. and Laxalt in Nevada. Then Warnock wins in Georgia which gives me my 50-50.

IF you want to claim to be more accurate than me, I don't mind. It is all for fun.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by NiceGuy53

Robert Cahaly estimated this "submerged voter" could be anywhere from half a percentage point up to 5 percentage points. If you would have read the article, you would know this. He also said there was no way to accurately measure this. Even if most of the polls are undercounting the republican vote by only 1% or 2%, this could spell big trouble for the Democrats. That's how tight these polls show some of these Senate races are.

The polls showed themselves to be very accurate this election cycle in Ga., Texas, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Pa., Ohio, NC, and NH.

https://www.270towin.com/polls/lates...lection-polls/

[WTF]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Net gain of 4-5 in the Senate for GOP
Net gain of 30-35 in the House for the GOP
Net gain of 3-4 in governors for the GOP

Originally Posted by Tiny

By damn, I haven't won anything since the "Mr. Young Congeniality Award" in 8th grade, and I'm not going to let you deprive me of this. You didn't predict winners for all of Barleycorn's races. So what you did was kind of like entering a decathlon and not competing in the long jump, the high jump, the pole vault, the discus, etc. But since you did the best in the 100 meters and the shot put, you win. Well that's not the way it works buddy boy. The only people who voted on all the choices were Barleycorn and me. So when the dust clears it will be him or me.

I'm pissed at Texas Contrarian too. I say Republicans will pick up 29 seats so he says 28. What a shark.

Just kidding. You're by far the most astute poll watcher here and it shows.

Watching the swings on Predictit.org yesterday was wild. I suspect it's an inefficient market and there's money to be made on that site, the problem being the maximum wager is $850. Here are some comments by someone who turned $400 into $400,000 on predictit.org.

https://luckboxmagazine.com/trends/h...tical-futures/

Hopefully Barelycorn did win with his shitty 30-35 net House gains!

He wasn't very accurate in the contested Senate races either.

There were really only 4.

Pennsylvania
Arizona
Nevada
Georgia


And really only Georgia and Nevada

[NiceGuy53]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

The polls showed themselves to be very accurate this election cycle in Ga., Texas, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Pa., Ohio, NC, and NH.

https://www.270towin.com/polls/lates...lection-polls/

Yes, I agree. And they might have even under polled the Democrat vote in a few states. I would want to see the final results though, before definitely stating this. From what I have seen, you had the most accurate predictions for this election, so congratulations.

The House remains a nail biter. From what I'm seeing, the republicans will need to hang on to every seat where they have a current lead, to win a very small majority. In the Senate, the best the Republicans can hope for would be a 51-49 advantage with them carrying Nevada and winning the runoff in Georgia. But a 50-50 tie, which you predicted, would be the result if they lost the runoff in Georgia, which is also quite possible. And it would be Deja vu all over again.

[NiceGuy53]

Originally Posted by WTF

Hopefully Barelycorn did win with his shitty 30-35 net House gains!

He wasn't very accurate in the contested Senate races either.

There were really only 4.

Pennsylvania
Arizona
Nevada
Georgia


And really only Georgia and Nevada

Didn't you respond "No" in another thread, when Jackie posed the question "Will the red wave dissipate before it makes landfall?" Let's try and keep this thread civil.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by NiceGuy53

Didn't you respond "No" in another thread, when Jackie posed the question "Will the red wave dissipate before it makes landfall?" Let's try and keep this thread civil.

I did....I was calling Barelycorn out on his bs of trying to make it seem as if he called it. He wasn't even close.

I thought inflation would be the Democrats downfall....turns out they want candidates who govern...not cry about past elections.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

I'll stand by my prediction that Republicans will win 80% of all "toss ups" at election time and Republicans will take the House and Senate by 2

The Red wave did not happen. "It was a good night for democrats". Joe Biden.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/video/bid...233033176.html

If Kelly keeps his lead in Arizona and Warnock tackles the former Heisman trophy winner Herschal Walker on Dec 6. The senate will be 50-50 and Vice President K. Harris will break all ties. Go Dems.