How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

No. 2%. regardless of risk factors. so you agree the math makes that about 62-63k which is what i calculated based on Italy








so let's play Death guess. i say < 63k. anyone else?

We're already playing death guess, but please pick just one number. You picked 63,000 numbers, and Fred's already got one of them (50,000). You can be like Eccieuser and pick 49,999 or 50,001 if you wish.

I agree that your math makes perfect sense if there's not one single additional death from coronavirus in Italy after yesterday. That's unlikely to happen though considering 5500 Italians died from coronavirus last week.

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Yeah, Italy more than confirms it. Our population is 5.5X larger than Italy. 11,600 people have died in Italy so far. 5.5 x 11,600 = 63,800 deaths in USA to get to the point where Italy is now. And deaths in Italy are still growing like a bat out of hell. They were at 6070 cumulative deaths a week ago. The number of deaths has almost doubled in just a week. You ratio based on population to the total number of people who will have died in Italy up through two weeks from now and you'll definitely exceed the U. of Washington's median 82,000 estimate for the USA

I wonder if Italy's old population has anything to do with it? In a country of approximately 60 million Italy has more people in their 70's, 80's and 90's than any other country in Europe. With age comes other health issues. Numbers obviously mean something, but what represents those numbers has significance as well. I am not saying this virus can't harm younger people but older populations pose a significant mortality rate.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Levianon17

I wonder if Italy's old population has anything to do with it? In a country of approximately 60 million Italy has more people in their 70's, 80's and 90's than any other country in Europe. With age comes other health issues. Numbers obviously mean something, but what represents those numbers has significance as well. I am not saying this virus can't harm younger people but older populations pose a significant mortality rate.

Definitely. The University of Washington model adjusts each state for age. You should see more deaths per capita in Italy than Wuhan or the USA all else being equal, given the older population.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Tiny

We're already playing death guess, but please pick just one number. You picked 63,000 numbers, and Fred's already got one of them (50,000). You can be like Eccieuser and pick 49,999 or 50,001 if you wish.

I agree that your math makes perfect sense if there's not one single additional death from coronavirus in Italy after yesterday. That's unlikely to happen though considering 5500 Italians died from coronavirus last week.

then i revise my odds to <75k better than the 100-200k numbers floated by Fauci

that article on bad air quality in hard hit Northern Italy factors big time.


let the chinks lie about their death rate they are by accident or design getting exactly what they need. they end those rebellion riots in HK because now the DEATH VIRUS will kill u. how convenient.


then they soft reboot their house of cards GOV propped up economy by making the World take a economic shit along with them.

and they get the US in an election year to debate about the response.


and they don't want Trump to be re-elected because he is kicking their ass in trade.

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Definitely. The University of Washington model adjusts each state for age. You should see more deaths per capita in Italy than Wuhan or the USA all else being equal, given the older population.

This is a strange Virus. One thing I've heard and hopefully it's true, outside of a host this virus doesn't have much strength and it can't replicate because it doesn't have it's own genetic material in the form of RNA like many other viruses. That's one reason why it doesn't become airborne on it's own for any significant length of time. It is also sensitive to Ultra Violet light, so as Spring approaches and we have warmer sunny days again that may slow down it's spread. Once inside a host though it replicates rapidly and the infected person is very contagious. I've read so many articles and seen numerous videos. Some seem promising and others paint a bleak picture. So it's hard to say what we are facing in the coming days and weeks.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

No. 2%. regardless of risk factors. so you agree the math makes that about 62-63k which is what i calculated based on Italy








so let's play Death guess. i say < 63k. anyone else?

By December 31, 2021 the number will be closer to your guess than Tiny's first guess. The longer time passes, the higher the rate of infection. Thus, more deaths.

But, the more the medical community will have to fight it. With that time frame, and the seriousness of the rate, more will be done to stop it. I will still guess you are being conservative. (See what I did there?)

I will take the block from 75k to 100k. Is that fair? Or should I narrow it down. This is gruesomely fun. Just talking the U.S. right? As per the thread title.

[Oilrig]

Never hear about FLU deaths every year.



COVID-19 DEATHS
2020 3,100

FLU DEATHS
2019-2020 24,000-62,000 Estimate
2018-2019 34,200
2017-2018 61,000
2016-2017 38,000
2015-2016 23,000
2014-2015 51,000

[BlisswithKriss]

Attachment 871767

So how did Trump prediction pan out.?

Come on you Trump sheep.

Lost your tongues

You hate the truth don’t you.

[BlisswithKriss]

The real number will always be reflective of Trumps incompetence.

How he’s already lied so many times about his so called wonderful job. That he has to get his buddy the Pillow Man to spew more nonsense. Like it’s some kind of big joke.

South Korea did a great job and kept the numbers down,

But all Trump can do is treat the virus TV daily briefings as his own platform for lies and propaganda. Bragging about the viewership...geez

The numbers will escalate because his Governor buddies are not taking this virus seriously but are doing their best to thwart the media from doing their jobs.
Florida is a classic example. De Santis is Too busy kissing Trumps butthole

[Oilrig]

Originally Posted by BlisswithKriss

So how did Trump prediction pan out.?

[oeb11]

Originally Posted by Levianon17

This is a strange Virus. One thing I've heard and hopefully it's true, outside of a host this virus doesn't have much strength and it can't replicate because it doesn't have it's own genetic material in the form of RNA like many other viruses. That's one reason why it doesn't become airborne on it's own for any significant length of time. It is also sensitive to Ultra Violet light, so as Spring approaches and we have warmer sunny days again that may slow down it's spread. Once inside a host though it replicates rapidly and the infected person is very contagious. I've read so many articles and seen numerous videos. Some seem promising and others paint a bleak picture. So it's hard to say what we are facing in the coming days and weeks.

L-17 - the wuhan virus (Covid-19) is a single stranded RNA virus . It replicates inside a cell - not on its own, It contains RNA. The nuc.eotide sequence has been determined and characterized.

It is transmitted by respiratory droplet primarily, but can exist on surfaces for a variable period of time - and contact with the surface and then mucous membranes - eyes, mouth, nose can transmit the virus. It does not penetrate intact skin for transmission.

Unlikely to be transmitted by sexual contact - but from the close transmission of respiratory secretions.

the virus can be killed by many disinfectants. Ethanol does kill the virus on surfaces. Imbibing ethanol is not a cure for the clinical infection. It is sensitive to UV light. UV light kills only on surfaces - exposure to UV light is not a cure for clinical infection. Hopefully will go into a "remission " as warmer weather arrives.

To the posters who might want to go get drunk under UV light to prevent/cure viral infection - well - use your best judgment with regard to to the natural selection process of the species.




An in depth article. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/


A current CDC situation summary :https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...s/summary.html


For a change - I will not reproduce the articles - the first, in particular, is directed at the scientific medical community primarily. It is a good read.

CDC is more overview.

To all posters interested in being informed-Please consider taking the time to read these.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

I will take the block from 75k to 100k. Is that fair? Or should I narrow it down. This is gruesomely fun. Just talking the U.S. right? As per the thread title.

No you can't and no it's not fair. If the Waco Kid wants to start a death guess game and throw out "numbers" like <75,000, then he should start his own thread. And if he does that I'll guess less than 350 million deaths in the USA.

Fine to revise your estimate, and I'm thinking and hoping we're a bit high, but who knows. Fauci is predicting 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. The University of Washington model assumes all places adopt four social distancing measures and they're not. We're predicting through December 31, 2021, and the U. of Washington cuts off in August of this year. What happens if the virus comes roaring back next winter when the weather gets cooler?

And then you've got the China question. Are the Chinese under reporting deaths? Have millions died in China? If so, the U. of Washington model is underestimating fatalities since it uses the Wuhan data (among other data) in its model

Speaking of which it's difficult for me to understand what our esteemed fellow posters Oeb and Waco Kid are arguing about China, except that if it comes out of China it must be a lie. Oeb in particular believes there won't be many deaths in the USA. But how is that consistent with China massively under-reporting deaths? I guess the other extreme would be that China just made up an imaginary disease. And the USA and the rest of the west shut down their economies for something that doesn't exist or isn't that bad. Any thoughts Oeb, if you're inclined to comment?

[oeb11]

Tiny - see articles above FYI.

Case mortality rate also depends on R0 -infectivity- and total cases - as well as both environmental and personal habit risk factors like age, underlying diseases, smoking, close quarter living - ie apartment living in NYC, etc.

You are correct - our data is incomplete - and if China is hiding a massive cohort of infected population - it skews the rates of morbidity and case mortality upward - likely.

i do not feel China can be at ll trusted with accurate reporting.

We are operating in the blind -essentially - and have to develop data on the disease from the free world with accurate reporting - ie - First world nations - no 3rd world nations - and with our own US experience develop predictions - which help interventions.

Of note- FDA has cleared the chloroquines and azithromycini for use in the Wuhan virus - there will likely be a shortage - and at this time should only be used in hospitalized patients whose condition and outlook requires an intervention reserved for very ill patients.



One concept U have correct - there is a great deal of educated guessing going on -IMHO. .Might it be necessary for me to change my opinion and up-number my thought on the case mortality rate - it is possible

[Tiny]

Fair enough, thanks Oeb.

[oeb11]

Thank You - good Sir!